• Quarter-finals: Portugal v Poland, Thursday, 11pm (UAE time)
Portugal have progressed to the quarter-finals of Euro 2016 despite not winning a game in 90 minutes. They overcame Croatia in the last 16 despite not recording a shot on target for 116 minutes. They are in the last eight in Europe despite coming third in a group containing Austria, Iceland and Hungary.
An example of how fortune can favour teams in a tournament? Or a warning of what they could achieve if they play to their potential? In all probability, there is a bit of both. Portugal have been doubly blessed, in being placed in one of the lesser pools and then, as a result of Iceland’s injury-time winner over Austria, being diverted into the lesser half of the draw. They have prevailed, unconvincingly, while drawing. All of which seems to make them dangerous.
• In pictures: Ronaldo, Portugal train | Lewandowski, Poland
And rather difficult to explain. Their 3-3 draw with Hungary was the best game of Euro 2016, their eventual 1-0 win over Croatia perhaps the worst. “Sometimes you have to be pragmatic,” said an unapologetic coach Fernando Santos afterwards. After defending so deep to prevent Croatia’s passers from creating an opening, he may adopt a similar approach to try and stifle Poland’s Robert Lewandowski on Thursday.
Santos' defensive gameplan worked well against the Croatians. A substitute, Ricardo Quaresma, belatedly added excitement by delivering the late winner. Yet, like many of his counterparts, he does not seem to have identified his best side yet. William Carvalho began the tournament on the bench. The forceful defensive midfielder has gone on to exert a huge influence in his three starts. Renato Sanches did not appear until half-time in the third match. He has not begun one yet but was still named man of the match for his all-action display against Croatia. Bayern Munich were quicker to recognise the 18-year-old's talent than his national team manager.
• More: Ian Hawkey on Portugal
With Joao Moutinho dropping out of the side, albeit because of a muscular problem, the younger generation have supplanted the old. It provides echoes of 2004, when a teenaged Cristiano Ronaldo began the tournament on the bench and soon gravitated to the starting 11. That tournament, when Greece sprung a surprise in the final, remains the only one when Portugal have reached a final. This represents Ronaldo’s last chance to return to a similar stage – partly because he will turn 33 before the 2018 World Cup and partly because, since 2006, Portugal have fared far better in European Championships.
“We’ll always have a chance. We’ve got the best player in the world: Ronaldo,” said defender Jose Fonte. Lionel Messi’s advocates may disagree with that assertion, but Ronaldo is certainly the most persistent. He has had 32 shots so far, a dozen more than anyone else, even if only a quarter have been directed on target. His Euro 2016, like Portugal’s, divides opinions.
Fonte also name-checked Quaresma, Nani and Joao Mario as potential match-winners, though Ronaldo has a capacity to overshadow all. In any case, Santos has more immediate decisions to make. Moutinho is back in contention, though Sanches should finally start. Having used 38-year-old centre-back Ricardo Carvalho, the other survivor of 2004 and the oldest outfield player in Euro 2016 in all three games, he was replaced by Fonte against Croatia. The Southampton captain emerged with credit from the tedium.
Criticism came from outsiders. Comparisons with 2004 relate to Portugal’s conquerors then as well as the current side’s predecessors. Greece defended their way to glory. The current class insist they do not see similarities. “We’ve played four games and Portugal cannot be compared to Greece,” said Nani, who has scored two of his side’s five goals.
His commitment to attack, like Ronaldo’s, is unquestioned. Their team-mates’ attitude will be rather more instructive. Yet if outsiders wait for Portugal to finally make a statement, their progress by stealth could continue. Most of the teams in the quarter-finals have a winning habit. Portugal have a drawing one. But, strangely, that could be enough.
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