Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo applauds fans at the end of  the Euro 2016 round of 16 soccer match between Croatia and Portugal at the Bollaert stadium in Lens, France, Saturday, June 25, 2016. Portugal won 1-0. (AP Photo/Frank Augstein)
Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo applauds fans at the end of the Euro 2016 round of 16 soccer match between Croatia and Portugal at the Bollaert stadium in Lens, France, Saturday, June 25, 2016. PortugalShow more

Euro 2016 Portugal v Poland: In spite of themselves, Ronaldo’s side could be dangerous



• Quarter-finals: Portugal v Poland, Thursday, 11pm (UAE time)

Portugal have progressed to the quarter-finals of Euro 2016 despite not winning a game in 90 minutes. They overcame Croatia in the last 16 despite not recording a shot on target for 116 minutes. They are in the last eight in Europe despite coming third in a group containing Austria, Iceland and Hungary.

An example of how fortune can favour teams in a tournament? Or a warning of what they could achieve if they play to their potential? In all probability, there is a bit of both. Portugal have been doubly blessed, in being placed in one of the lesser pools and then, as a result of Iceland’s injury-time winner over Austria, being diverted into the lesser half of the draw. They have prevailed, unconvincingly, while drawing. All of which seems to make them dangerous.

• In pictures: Ronaldo, Portugal train | Lewandowski, Poland

And rather difficult to explain. Their 3-3 draw with Hungary was the best game of Euro 2016, their eventual 1-0 win over Croatia perhaps the worst. “Sometimes you have to be pragmatic,” said an unapologetic coach Fernando Santos afterwards. After defending so deep to prevent Croatia’s passers from creating an opening, he may adopt a similar approach to try and stifle Poland’s Robert Lewandowski on Thursday.

Santos' defensive gameplan worked well against the Croatians. A substitute, Ricardo Quaresma, belatedly added excitement by delivering the late winner. Yet, like many of his counterparts, he does not seem to have identified his best side yet. William Carvalho began the tournament on the bench. The forceful defensive midfielder has gone on to exert a huge influence in his three starts. Renato Sanches did not appear until half-time in the third match. He has not begun one yet but was still named man of the match for his all-action display against Croatia. Bayern Munich were quicker to recognise the 18-year-old's talent than his national team manager.

• More: Ian Hawkey on Portugal

With Joao Moutinho dropping out of the side, albeit because of a muscular problem, the younger generation have supplanted the old. It provides echoes of 2004, when a teenaged Cristiano Ronaldo began the tournament on the bench and soon gravitated to the starting 11. That tournament, when Greece sprung a surprise in the final, remains the only one when Portugal have reached a final. This represents Ronaldo’s last chance to return to a similar stage – partly because he will turn 33 before the 2018 World Cup and partly because, since 2006, Portugal have fared far better in European Championships.

“We’ll always have a chance. We’ve got the best player in the world: Ronaldo,” said defender Jose Fonte. Lionel Messi’s advocates may disagree with that assertion, but Ronaldo is certainly the most persistent. He has had 32 shots so far, a dozen more than anyone else, even if only a quarter have been directed on target. His Euro 2016, like Portugal’s, divides opinions.

Fonte also name-checked Quaresma, Nani and Joao Mario as potential match-winners, though Ronaldo has a capacity to overshadow all. In any case, Santos has more immediate decisions to make. Moutinho is back in contention, though Sanches should finally start. Having used 38-year-old centre-back Ricardo Carvalho, the other survivor of 2004 and the oldest outfield player in Euro 2016 in all three games, he was replaced by Fonte against Croatia. The Southampton captain emerged with credit from the tedium.

Criticism came from outsiders. Comparisons with 2004 relate to Portugal’s conquerors then as well as the current side’s predecessors. Greece defended their way to glory. The current class insist they do not see similarities. “We’ve played four games and Portugal cannot be compared to Greece,” said Nani, who has scored two of his side’s five goals.

His commitment to attack, like Ronaldo’s, is unquestioned. Their team-mates’ attitude will be rather more instructive. Yet if outsiders wait for Portugal to finally make a statement, their progress by stealth could continue. Most of the teams in the quarter-finals have a winning habit. Portugal have a drawing one. But, strangely, that could be enough.

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How Tesla’s price correction has hit fund managers

Investing in disruptive technology can be a bumpy ride, as investors in Tesla were reminded on Friday, when its stock dropped 7.5 per cent in early trading to $575.

It recovered slightly but still ended the week 15 per cent lower and is down a third from its all-time high of $883 on January 26. The electric car maker’s market cap fell from $834 billion to about $567bn in that time, a drop of an astonishing $267bn, and a blow for those who bought Tesla stock late.

The collapse also hit fund managers that have gone big on Tesla, notably the UK-based Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF.

Tesla is the top holding in both funds, making up a hefty 10 per cent of total assets under management. Both funds have fallen by a quarter in the past month.

Matt Weller, global head of market research at GAIN Capital, recently warned that Tesla founder Elon Musk had “flown a bit too close to the sun”, after getting carried away by investing $1.5bn of the company’s money in Bitcoin.

He also predicted Tesla’s sales could struggle as traditional auto manufacturers ramp up electric car production, destroying its first mover advantage.

AJ Bell’s Russ Mould warns that many investors buy tech stocks when earnings forecasts are rising, almost regardless of valuation. “When it works, it really works. But when it goes wrong, elevated valuations leave little or no downside protection.”

A Tesla correction was probably baked in after last year’s astonishing share price surge, and many investors will see this as an opportunity to load up at a reduced price.

Dramatic swings are to be expected when investing in disruptive technology, as Ms Wood at ARK makes clear.

Every week, she sends subscribers a commentary listing “stocks in our strategies that have appreciated or dropped more than 15 per cent in a day” during the week.

Her latest commentary, issued on Friday, showed seven stocks displaying extreme volatility, led by ExOne, a leader in binder jetting 3D printing technology. It jumped 24 per cent, boosted by news that fellow 3D printing specialist Stratasys had beaten fourth-quarter revenues and earnings expectations, seen as good news for the sector.

By contrast, computational drug and material discovery company Schrödinger fell 27 per cent after quarterly and full-year results showed its core software sales and drug development pipeline slowing.

Despite that setback, Ms Wood remains positive, arguing that its “medicinal chemistry platform offers a powerful and unique view into chemical space”.

In her weekly video view, she remains bullish, stating that: “We are on the right side of change, and disruptive innovation is going to deliver exponential growth trajectories for many of our companies, in fact, most of them.”

Ms Wood remains committed to Tesla as she expects global electric car sales to compound at an average annual rate of 82 per cent for the next five years.

She said these are so “enormous that some people find them unbelievable”, and argues that this scepticism, especially among institutional investors, “festers” and creates a great opportunity for ARK.

Only you can decide whether you are a believer or a festering sceptic. If it’s the former, then buckle up.

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