Perhaps this is a clash of the footballing versions of the irresistible force and the immovable object. Germany are Europe’s ultimate tournament team, Italy the side that specialise in knocking them out of tournaments. Something has to give.
From a German perspective, something has to change. A team regularly lauded for their mental strength have been asked if they have any hang-ups about facing the Azzurri.
“We have no Italy trauma,” manager Joachim Low insisted.
Perhaps it is something else, then. Perhaps it is coincidence. Because the oft-quoted statistic is that Germany have met Italy eight times in major tournaments and won none. Each of the four knockout ties have ended with the Italians celebrating.
Since Low joined Germany in 2004, initially as Jurgen Klinsmann’s assistant before being promoted to the top job two years later, only two countries have eliminated them from major tournaments: Spain, in 2008 and 2010, and Italy, in 2006 and 2012.
It is a recurring theme.
“I just don’t have any Italy trauma,” said Toni Kroos, who played in the 2012 semi-final defeat.
That was an extraordinary occasion, a game to illustrate the huge talent Mario Balotelli has, and has largely squandered. The concern for Germany could be the similarities between that tactically excellent side, given a solid base by the Juventus defence, and the current Italy.
But only Lukas Podolski and Bastian Schweinsteiger survive from the 2006 semi-final defeat. Only Gianluigi Buffon, of those who could play, was in the Italy team a decade ago. There is nevertheless a continuity that stretches back, via the 1982 World Cup final to the 1970 semi-final.
Italy have been the envy of other countries who struggle to beat Germany when it matters.
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With the exception of a largely second-string side’s defeat to the Republic of Ireland, Italy have been the team of this tournament.
Yet Germany are the ultimate Turniermannschaft, a tournament team. Their defensive record deteriorated dramatically after winning the World Cup. They let in 26 goals in 19 games between major competitions. But they are the only side yet to concede in Euro 2016.
Manuel Neuer is staking a case to be the outstanding goalkeeper in France. A subplot is Jerome Boateng and Leonardo Bonucci’s battle to be recognised as the finest defender.
It is less than five weeks since Germany lost 3-1 to Slovakia, barely three months since they were beaten 3-2 at home by England. Both results feel years ago.
Germany have regained their focus and performed with professional competence and a marked sense of purpose when it has mattered. Even the stalemate with Poland, underwhelmingly boring as it was, showed their rediscovered sense of resolve.
Low has been fine-tuning his side.
Mats Hummels missed the first game and has resumed his central-defensive partnership with Boateng. Joshua Kimmich has been a revelation at right-back since he was brought in for the third game, a 1-0 win over Northern Ireland.
That also marked Mario Gomez’s first start and Germany have benefited from the presence of a specialist striker, rather than the false nine Mario Gotze. Julian Draxler then took over from Gotze on the left wing in the last-16 rematch against Slovakia. He scored and starred, making Germany look more incisive.
The one remaining issue is if Thomas Muller can end his uncharacteristic goal drought, the one tactical question if Schweinsteiger should be brought in to reunite the midfield trio of him, Kroos and Sami Khedira who excelled in the 7-1 demolition of Brazil two years ago.
That was historic. So would be a victory, of any scoreline, against Italy in a tournament. And so would progress, however it is secured.
No European country has ever reached the semi-finals of six successive major tournaments. Germany’s remarkable consistency in the Low era could take them into uncharted territory.
But first they have to ensure that their latest meeting with Italy is not traumatic.
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