Horse racing writer Geoffrey Riddle goes gate-by-gate, horse-by-horse to predict the main event of this weekend's Dubai World Cup.
We also pick each of the eight races before the main event.
Click or swipe through for more. More coverage | Draw results
1: Apollo Kentucky
Comes in to the race having beaten Awardee, who started favourite, in the Tokyo Daishoten at Ohi in December. Reportedly left Japan only 80 per cent fit and arrived stiff. Therefore assistant trainer Jun Tomioka has not been able to apply the gloss finish at any point at morning trackwork and he looks desperately up against it. Probably not good enough even if firing on all cylinders.
2: Long River
Beat an 85 per cent fit Special Fighter when causing an upset in the Al Maktoum Challenge at Meydan on Super Saturday three weeks ago. Mickael Barzalona took the lead early on from his low draw and the pair never looked back. Long River is once again drawn in stall two and will need to pin his ears back and hope to not get caught. There is a suspicion he does not truly stay this distance.
3: Gold Dream
A puff of smoke, a wave of the wand and lo and behold the Magic Man Joao Moreira is in the saddle. The improving four year old did a fine piece of work on Wednesday to set him up for a tilt at the World Cup and his win in the Grade 1 February Stakes looks good on paper. In practice there was little between the first four home and he will need to step up on that.
4: Lani
Who knows? Last year’s UAE Derby winner is capable of anything on his day and has looked far more settled in morning trackwork as the week has progressed. Has the benefit of British star Ryan Moore in the irons, too. He finished 16 lengths behind Long River in the Al Maktoum Challenge, however, so has a lot of ground to make up.
5: Gun Runner
A legitimate threat to Arrogate. Gun Runner is an improving four year old who has drawn well in stall five for the way he likes to run — prominently. Florent Geroux has a good relationship with his mount, but has never ridden in Dubai previously. Gun Runner has yet to prove conclusively that 2000 metres is tailor-made for him, but he will have one of the shortest trips. Interesting.
6: Move Up
Any runner who has been saddled by Saeed bin Suroor needs a second look. The master of Al Quoz has sent out a record seven Dubai World Cup winners, including the outsider Prince Bishop to a shock win over California Chrome two seasons ago. Move Up has been drawn perfectly to either track the pace set by Long River or Gun Runner or settle in the middle of the pack. Move Up was beaten just over three lengths by Long River and even though the son of Dubawi could build on his first start on dirt that performance does not look nearly good enough.
7: Awardee
Was not good enough to hold off Apollo Kentucky in December. Even if that defeat was a surprise, it still suggests Awardee is way short of the required mark. Trainer Mikio Matsunaga, who also trains Lani, knows a thing or two about bringing horses to win at Meydan though — Red Desire won the Al Maktoum Challenge in 2010.
8: Furia Cruzada
There is a lot stacking up against Furia Cruzada. No mare has ever won the Dubai World Cup and she is rated the most lowly horse in the field. She was nowhere near good enough in the Al Maktoum Challenge, although Long River and Special Fighter got first run on her. She is entitled to improve but would have to take a step up of enormous proportions to even take a hand. Whatever happens Antonio Fresu and Erwan Charpy need take a bow for their first World Cup runner.
9: Arrogate
Arrogate is the highest-rated horse in the world, and he is the best in this race by a considerable margin. According to British ratings service Timeform the roan colt should win by around seven lengths, and even rival camps this week have struggled to come up with a plan to defeat him. Bob Baffert has won the World Cup twice, and everything has gone smoothly this week.
10: Keen Ice
Keen Ice’s day in the sun came when he beat the Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, but that remains the US raider’s only success. The key ingredient to his win was that American Pharoah had been softened up in a speed duel by Godolphin’s Frosted and Keen Ice simply picked up the pieces. There is likely to be a fierce pace again on Saturday, but Keen Ice was 11 lengths behind Arrogate in the Pegasus World Cup in December. He was eighth last year, but he was subsequently found to have picked up an injury. Has moved from Dale Romans to Todd Pletcher since.
11: Neolithic
Slipped ahead of Keen Ice in the Pegasus World Cup to finish third behind Arrogate. Neolithic likes to race prominently, but that is going to be difficult from his wide draw. Jockey John Velazaquez has won the World Cup previously with Roses In May in 2005 and is one of the best around so will need to draw on all of considerable talent. The four year old is another on an arc of improvement, but once again it would have to be a lot to topple the favourite.
12: Hoppertunity
Came from behind last time to win the Grade 2 San Antonio Stakes at Santa Anita in February.
Ran really well 12 months ago to snatch third from a wide draw in gate ten from a hold-up position, so gate 12 is probably not the end of the world. Jockey Flavien Prat will have a devilish job threading his mount through tiring horses but the six year old is classy on his day.
13: Special Fighter
Will provide Maria Ritchie with her first World Cup runner just a month after she obtained a licence. No female trainer has ever won the World Cup and that statistic unlikely to be snapped in the 22nd running of the $US10million event. Special Fighter will surely come on for his second to Long River last time, but he was only fourth last year off a better preparation and this is a much tougher contest.
14: Mubtaahij
Mike De Kock must have put on a brave face when he saw his assistant Trevor Brown choose the 14 draw at the post position ceremony on Wednesday. Silver Charm, Moon Ballad and Curlin all won the World Cup from the widest draw, however, but they were all better fancied in their respective races than Mubtaahij is.
Prediction
Arrogate is simply head and shoulders above his rivals and the only way he will be beaten is if something out of the ordinary occurs. He might be sleepy in the gates or he might endure a troubled passage, for instance. All things being equal, however, he should win. What chases him home is another matter. Gun Runner should account for the front-running Long River at the head of the field, while Neolithic may be forced too wide for his style of racing. The Japanese do not look to have the strongest challenge this season, so that should leave a lung-busting lunge for the podium places from the rear by the likes of Hoppertunity, Keen Ice and Mubtaahij.
1: Arrogate
2: Gun Runner
3: Hoppertunity
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