What are India's World Test Championship final chances after New Zealand series defeat?

Rohit Sharma's team have no room for error after crushing home series loss

Captain Tom Latham is congratulated by his Indian counterpart Rohit Sharma after New Zealand completed a historic Test series win in Pune. AFP

India were handed a major reality check after their 12-year unbeaten run in home Test series came to end following another comprehensive defeat in the second Test against New Zealand in Pune.

Rohit Sharma's team were on a high as the top-ranked Test team in the world ahead of the series against New Zealand, who had suffered a 2-0 whitewash in the preceding Test tour of Sri Lanka which had included an innings defeat.

However, it was New Zealand who were better prepared to tackle the conditions as they decimated India on a fast pitch in Bengaluru with their pace attack before wrecking the home team's batting with spin in the second game.

Left-arm spinner Mitchell Santner took 13 wickets on a rank turner in Pune as India suffered their first Test series defeat at home since 2012.

Despite another defeat in home Tests - it was India's fourth Test defeat in 11 Tests in their backyard- captain Sharma insisted there was no reason to panic.

"It (the failure) has happened in two Test matches. We've won 18 series in India, so it means we've done a lot of good things," the opening batsman said after the series defeat.

"In this series, we might not have been able to bat the way we wanted but such things happen. We've made runs consistently on challenging pitches in India. I don't want to think we've done a lot wrong.

"Two of our batting matches were bad, two or three innings were bad, but it happens. Sometimes you consistently win matches and do well but in one or two series it doesn't happen.

New Zealand's Mitchell Santner is embraced by teammate Rachin Ravindra as they celebrate after their 113-run win against India in the second Test in Pune on October 26, 2024. Santner took 13 wickets in the match to give the Black Caps an unassailable 2-0 lead in the series. AFP

New Zealand's Mitchell Santner celebrates after taking the wicket of India's Ravichandran Ashwin. AFP

New Zealand's Mitchell Santner, left, and New Zealand's captain Tom Latham celebrate the dismissal of India's Virat Kohli. AP

India's Virat Kohli plays a shot before he was dismissed lbw by Mitchell Santner for 17. AP

India's Yashasvi Jaiswal celebrates his fifty. The opener top scored for the hosts with 77 off 65 balls. AP

India's Ravindra Jadeja made 42. AP

New Zealand's captain Tom Latham, left, celebrates with Daryl Mitchell after their win against India in the second Test. AFP

New Zealand captain Tom Latham is congratulated by India skipper Rohit Sharma after the match. AFP

"I can't doubt anyone's ability. I don't want to do a post mortem, but yes we see what we should do differently in such situations. All the batters should come with their own plan, all the batters should trust their plan."

WTC final chances

The bigger concern for the team is the impact the two shock defeats will have on their chances of making it to the World Test Championship final next year.

Before the series started, India were the favourites to become the first team qualify for the Lord's final in June. However, they now have a mountain to climb as they first need to avoid an embarrassing whitewash at home and then pull up their socks for the five-Test series in Australia.

India are still the top-ranked Test team in the world but their lead at the top has reduced drastically. They now need to win four of the remaining six Tests in the cycle to be assured of a top two spot in the WTC points table - the top two ranked sides qualify for the final. WTC points are awarded on the basis of percentage of the available points won in any series.

That means India not only have to win the final Test against New Zealand which starts in Mumbai on Friday, but will also have to win their third Border-Gavaskar Trophy in Australia. If they fail, India will have to rely on other teams faring poorly for them to progress.

WTC points table

Captain Sharma said he is not thinking about the WTC final as yet.

"I think it's too early to think about the WTC. I'm just hurting because we lost the game, that's what I'll say, I can't think about what lies ahead," Sharma said.

"I think we didn't play well enough in these two games and that is hurting, we lost the series, that is hurting. There are things that need to do as a unit, not just the batters but also the bowlers; it's a collective failure."

India qualified for the previous two WTC finals comfortably but are now far from the favourites to qualify. The Aussies have a better chance of qualifying for the final as they have to win four of their next seven Tests - five at home against an indifferent Indian team and two in Sri Lanka.

New Zealand have four Tests remaining in their cycle - including three at home against England - and suddenly have a good chance of qualifying if they win all four.

South Africa need to win four of their five remaining Tests - one in Bangladesh and four at home against Sri Lanka and Pakistan. On paper, the Proteas have a more than decent chance of getting the desired results to qualify for the final.

Sri Lanka too have a decent chance of finishing in the top two as they need to win three out of their remaining for Tests - two in South Africa and two at home against the Aussies.