The Houston Astros didn’t pretend to compete for a championship in 2011.
Or 2012, or even 2013 for that matter.
They had a plan. Blow up the team, drop salaries to nothing, start playing legions of young talent, find some keepers and get the train rolling in the right direction.
Oddly enough, it may have worked. Today it looks like an express to the play-offs.
The Astros still carry the lowest payroll, US$71 million (Dh260.8m), in Major League Baseball, but this season they have the best record in the American League. They are winning with some of that young talent, but also an array of low-cost players acquired through trades and free agency by Jeff Luhnow, general manager and architect of the makeover.
“After four years of playing hard and not getting a lot of wins, having a good season means a lot to us,” second baseman Jose Altuve, the first of the “kids” to blossom into a star player, told the San Antonio Express-News.
The 2011 version of the team was a baseball joke. The Astros cut their payroll in half to about $40m, and fielded mostly prospects. Their record was 56-106. They refused to abandon their long-term plan, and they were 55-107 in 2012. Rock bottom was 51-111 in 2013.
Meanwhile, team management embraced advanced metric statistics in evaluating players and forging strategy. They “shift” defensively more often than any team in MLB, sending an extra infielder to one side of the field or the other, and place an emphasis on pitchers who throw with extra spin on the ball.
Last year, the team improved by 19 games to 70-92, which still left them in the “irrelevant” category.
Finally, after four years in the wilderness, they are championship contenders.
One of the prospects, left-hander Dallas Keuchel, has emerged as an ace with a 6-1 record and a 1.98 earned-run average (ERA).
Other players developed in their minor-league system, like multi-talented outfielder George Springer (seven home runs, 11 stolen bases) and catcher Jason Castro, have become every-day contributors.
But Luhnow has done some smart shopping, as well. He traded for third baseman Luis Valbuena and outfielder Evan Gattis, who lead the team with 10 home runs; first baseman Chris Carter, who hit 66 home runs in 2013-14; and 24-year-old outfielder Jake Marisnick, who has nine steals and 11 extra base hits.
He plucked pitcher Collin McHugh, who recently had an 11-game winning streak snapped, off the waiver wire.
And he turned the bullpen from liability into strength by stuffing it with veterans Luke Gregerson (13 saves in 14 opportunities), Pat Neshek, Tony Sipp, Will Harris and Chad Qualls.
Their home, Minute Maid Park, is friendly to hitters, which helps explain their league-leading 66 home runs. But they also have stolen more bases (42) than anyone, and are third in team ERA at 3.57
The Astros have been so bad recently that their sudden ascendancy has taken baseball by surprise. Maybe it shouldn’t have. The formula — stockpiling young talent and letting it mature, while adding key, bargain-type pieces — has proven itself in recent years in places like Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Tampa Bay.
Scarier still for Astros opponents? Those 100-defeat years yielded high draft picks and prominent players who are still working their way through the system, like MLB’s No 2-rated prospect, shortstop Carlos Correa.
“This is the most fun I’ve had in a long time,” Keuchel said. “Guys are expecting to win now.”
It also might be a while before they stop.
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