What happens when the league’s top-scoring offence meets the league’s stingiest defence in the biggest game of the year?
You need only ask the Denver Broncos, who found themselves in that situation two short seasons ago. Their answer: defence wins.
That answer did not benefit Denver, though. The 2013 Broncos led the league with 37.9 points per game but had the unfortunate task of meeting a generationally great Seattle defence that allowed only 14.4 points per game.
Denver lost to Seattle 43-8 in Super Bowl 48.
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Two years later, the Broncos are back in the title game, but this time it was not due to their scoring; it was their league-best defence that allowed a mere 18.5 points per game.
The offence, though still led by Peyton Manning, is now an afterthought.
Fittingly, the Carolina Panthers counter with the NFL’s top-scoring attack (31.2 points per game), one that has put up points in bunches in play-off wins over Seattle and Arizona.
There should be no reason to think Cam Newton and company slow down on Sunday night.
But Carolina have not seen a defence – or, especially, a pass-rush – as good as Denver’s, and that is the reason I think the tested Broncos will pull off an upset.
The best defences Carolina saw this season were in Week 2, at home against the Houston Texans, and Week 6 at Seattle.
Carolina won both games, but Newton had two of his least productive days. The rest of the Panthers’ schedule is littered with wins against awful defences such as the Jacksonville Jaguars, the New Orleans Saints (twice), the Atlanta Falcons (twice) and the league-worst New York Giants, who almost beat Carolina.
The Broncos are in their second Super Bowl in three years with many of the same names, but as a completely different team. They know better than any side that defence wins titles – they saw it first-hand from the wrong sideline.
Of course, Carolina have a good defence of their own, but I trust Manning’s experience and savvy in dealing with what the Panthers will throw at him.
Newton’s season is one for the ages and he will be a the deserved MVP winner. But Denver’s experience and ruthless pass-rush will win the day.
kjeffers@thenational.ae
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