When Deng Xiaoping visited the US in 1979 he attended a rodeo, signalling not especially subtly perhaps that he was firmly in the saddle as China began a process of opening up to the world. Xi Jinping, the current Chinese president, visits America this week in what could be the most important summit since the 1970s.
A well-publicised anti-corruption drive and a more assertive foreign policy, as well as cybersecurity and climate change issues and an economy firing on fewer cylinders, mean that when Mr Xi sits down with Barack Obama there will be some key issues of substance to be ironed out.
In the seven or so seconds it takes you to read this next sentence, 28 children will have been born around the world, according to Unicef data.
Many of them will live healthy lives and see this century out. But when they talk to their grandchildren or friends how will they describe their 85 years? As an era of progress or lost opportunities in the pivotal relationship of the 21st century, between the US and China?
Let’s start with the basics. It’s easy to see what the US offers as the world’s major economic power, but what does China offer the US?
From roughly the time that Ronald Reagan became US president in 1981, China has witnessed the biggest movement of humans from field to factory. History has never seen anything like it.
China is growing. Its urbanisation drive means that approximately 220 million more people will move to urban areas over the next 15 years. In the 15 years of this century, 320m Chinese people became urbanites. This will ensure a greater focus in Beijing on public services, infrastructure, and – crucially – reducing pollution. It will also involve partnership with other countries. Europe has 35 cities of one million or more to attract US investment; China has 160.
This means opportunity, not just for China, but the US.
The world is changing. Predictions by the IMF suggest that by the end of this decade the Chinese economy will be worth nearly $27 trillion (Dh99tn), putting it ahead of the US. But China may not hold that position for long. In time, India will probably overtake them both. This does not diminish the importance of the US-China relationship, but it does broaden the perspective.
One particular issue stands out in US-China relations, and that is climate change. The world’s largest economies have a defining role to play in this discussion. All else, by definition, pales. And the climate on tackling climate change has improved.
China has agreed to cap its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and to increase its use of energy from zero-emission sources to 20 per cent by the same year.
The United States has pledged to cut its emissions 26 to 28 per cent below 2005 levels by 2025.
Of course, the world needs the US and China to work together. For their own interests alone, both need to work together.
This takes on added impetus when you consider the UN expects the global population to hit 10 billion by 2085, up from about 7bn today.
Most of this population expansion is expected to come from the developing world. Africa’s population will rise from 1bn in 2010 to 3.6bn in 2100. Just after the Second World War, 32 per cent of the world’s people lived in today’s rich countries. Just 13 per cent will do so by 2100.
There are billions of reasons to get this relationship right. There are no excuses to get it wrong.
Tom Clifford is a journalist in China
