Changing times call for different approaches. With a new American administration focusing on North Korea and other issues, the traditional focus of US diplomacy in the Middle East has shifted. European countries, in particular, have noticed and are seeking to create their own, stronger relationships with the Arab world.
That is broadly welcome. When Angela Merkel came to Abu Dhabi this week for talks, one of the items on the agenda was the rekindling of an EU-GCC trade deal, something that has faded from the agenda for some years. Mrs Merkel, seeking greater influence in the region, may bring it back.
In the UK, contemplating a new political landscape after Brexit, a new report from the upper chamber of parliament, the House of Lords, suggested the country needed a new policy towards the region. Some of what the parliamentary report suggested is positive. Some is dangerously destabilising.
Start with the good. The report calls on the UK to forge new and stronger alliances in the region. It notes that the country exports more to the Arab world than to China. Of the “key economic partners” in the region, four were Gulf states, including the UAE. All of that is welcome; we are ready to deepen our alliances with the UK and welcome more trade with it across the region.
Yet the report also recommends that the UK engage more with Iran, despite its lack of compliance with UN resolutions. In particular, the report says the UK should consider “active measures” to open up new sources of finance and investment to Iran. It also notes that trade with Iran should be a priority after Brexit. Rather extraordinarily, the report believes these carrots would make it more likely that Iran would stick to the nuclear deal.
All the evidence since the deal began suggests the opposite. Despite gaining billions of dollars from the deal, Iran has not taken those incentives as reasons to stop interfering in the region. On the contrary, it has poured resources into destabilising Yemen, sending the Houthi rebels advanced weaponry and continuing to support the Assad regime in Syria.
This is the fundamental mistake western countries make with Iran. They believe that it can be brought into the international arena through deals. But we have seen that Iran only uses these deals as cover for further expansion. Don’t be fooled.
