Having watched the Syrian stalemate for so long, the international community doesn’t appear to have a road map for a post-war Syria. This is despite the fact that recent events indicate the conflict is moving forward at pace following months of stalemate.
A year ago, Bashar Al Assad looked close to expelling rebels from the city of Aleppo, but now it appears he may give up this ground to concentrate on shoring up his key areas in western Syria. Ansar Al-Sharia rebel groups, meanwhile, have launched a large assault to reclaim the city. The battle also continues near Damascus, where Syrian troops backed by members of Lebanon's Hizbollah group began a major offensive on Saturday. As The National reported yesterday, the regime launched intense air strikes aimed at retaking a rebel-held mountain resort. This was followed by retaliation from opposition fighters who shelled the capital.
When all of this is factored together, there is a strong chance that if the regime is beaten out of Aleppo it will concentrate its efforts on holding Damascus. It would also usher in the prospect of a carved up Syria run by squabbling factions and militias – examples of the unstable nature of such subdivisions are there for all to see all over the region.
The probability of Syria being ruled by multiple factions has been brought closer by the fact that regime forces have been severely depleted by casualties, defections and draft-dodging since the conflict began. Recognising that the centre cannot hold, the government has belatedly launched a campaign to urge citizens to join the army.
But is the international community ready for a post-war Syria? Where is the plan for the country without Bashar Al Assad?
So many people are already suffering and in desperate need of help to rebuild their lives in the post-war era. Millions of displaced Syrians continue to face dire conditions inside Syria and in neighbouring countries. The World Food Programme warned last week that if it does not receive immediate funding, it will have to cut all food assistance to 440,000 Syrian refugees in Jordan and later have to suspend operations in all countries – in Egypt, in Lebanon, and in Iraq. One day these people will want to go back to their home country – and that is why it is more important than ever to formulate a clear road map for post-Assad Syria.
