The Iowa caucus is over and the US primary season has officially begun. Now that the results have been tallied and the candidates have moved on to New Hampshire, there is a sense of relief that the emotional venting of the last year has been left behind. The popularity of outsider candidates on both sides has revealed the extent to which radical thinking has taken hold in the American political imagination.
This has happened because the political centre has been eroded by two groups of people. There are those on the left who want serious economic reform because of the effects on the middle class of recent recessions. There are those on the right who are at odds with the federal government, a sentiment that has been exacerbated by eight years of the Obama administration. The result is a fracturing of the political centre and perceived weakness of establishment candidates such as Hillary Clinton, Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush.
Now that voters are making actual choices, at least in Iowa, we are able to gauge the extent to which this rhetorical shift is turning into political reality. Mrs Clinton won by the slimmest of margins over the more radical Bernie Sanders. But Mr Sanders’s strong performance in Iowa – far away from his liberal base in the north-east and California – underlines the popularity of his attacks on Wall Street. Moreover, his promises of free education and health care have found resonance in the minds of millions of Americans.
On the Republican side, the growth of the tea party movement with its scornful view of the government has taken hold of the debate. Hard-line conservative voters have found partners in the extreme positions of senator Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. Like Mr Sanders, the platforms of Mr Cruz and Mr Trump are alluring on a theoretical level but nearly impossible to implement.
Those supporting outsider candidates on both sides are doing so because the candidates’ rhetoric matches their wants. The problem is that these voters fail to see that the policy prescriptions of people such as Mr Trump and Mr Sanders can’t match their desires. There have been previous examples of populist candidates in the US but they have always failed to achieve lasting political power in the modern era. The fight for the centre has started. We shall see what transpires at the next primary in New Hampshire in five days.
