Before Sunday night’s European Championship final, few experts gave Portugal’s football team much hope of beating host nation France. Why? Because the French had sparkled in their previous fixtures while Portugal had spluttered and, crucially, because destiny would deliver the trophy to Les Bleus. France had previously won the trophy in 1984 and 2000. Surely 2016 would continue the pattern of triumphs at 16-year intervals?
Not so. Portugal emerged victorious, suggesting that 12-year cycles of success and failure are the key to predicting tournament winners. Portugal lost in the Euro 2004 final and won this year. A pattern that is mirrored by Germany in the World Cup. The country became world champions (as West Germany) in 1990, lost in the final in 2002 and won the 2014 World Cup.
Given this, we confidently predict Italy – losers in 1970, winners in 1982, losers in 1994 and winners in 2006 – will be in the World Cup final in 2018. As for who will win it? We haven’t a clue.