After a three-week pause, Russian aircraft have resumed bombing northern Syria, while the Syrian air force bombers are once again raining destruction on the rebel-held half of the city of Aleppo. All the signs suggest that the long-awaited offensive to retake eastern Aleppo will start soon. The dial is set to war again.
The Russians now have their aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, stationed off the coast of Syria. The Russians have gained some international plaudits for stopping the air attacks, but they have not allowed any food or medical supplies into eastern Aleppo, and the population is now beginning to starve. The Syrian government is bombarding the residents with text messages urging them to leave via safe passages before the assault begins.
Meanwhile, the Russians have effectively received a green light from president-elect Donald Trump to proceed with rooting out the rebels. We do not know what was said in the phone call between Mr Trump and president Vladimir Putin, but the businessman has made it clear that he shares the Kremlin view that the priority of the Syrian war is counterterrorism.
This is in contrast to the confusion of the Obama administration, which has been trying to unseat the Syrian president, Bashar Al Assad, through diplomacy while bombing “extremist” rebels and supporting the “moderate” rebels. Not surprisingly, it was unclear to many whose side the Americans were on.
In an extraordinary press conference on Monday, Mr Obama admitted that Washington was reduced to impotence in Syria – unable to exert military power, while the peace talks had got nowhere and efforts to establish safe havens had proved a non-starter.
Russian commentators are now predicting that after Mr Trump’s inauguration there will be joint US-Russian air strikes to destroy ISIL in its Syrian headquarters in the town of Raqqa. This seems unlikely, but it underlines the confidence in Moscow that fate is smiling on Mr Putin. Of course, no one yet knows who will be guiding Mr Trump’s foreign policy when he takes over in January – it could be someone with a less rosy view of Russian intentions.
So there is nothing to stop the assault on eastern Aleppo. If it goes to plan, the tottering Assad clan will have successfully manipulated its allies in Moscow and Tehran to secure a major victory in what used to be the country’s largest city.
The major concern now is the fate of the 200,000 civilians inside eastern Aleppo and the few thousand rebel fighters defending them. In the worst case, the civilians will be offered the choice between death in the coming battle or being forced to become refugees.
The United Nations is trying to work out a plan for the fighters of the Al Qaeda franchise, the Nusra Front (recently rebranded as the Syria Victory Front and supposedly no longer a member of the old jihadist network) to leave the city and join their comrades in Idlib province. This would not be the first time that rebel fighters have been allowed to leave besieged areas with their weapons under UN auspices – several hundred evacuated the city of Homs in December.
There are an estimated 600 Nusra fighters in eastern Aleppo, but their role in the resistance is far greater than their numbers suggest. They are acknowledged as the best supplied and most effective of the rebel groups in the region and other groups outside the jihadist family are happy to work with them. Their reputation attracts many fighters who do not care about their ideology. At the same time, Nusra is designated by the UN Security Council as a terrorist organisation and the rebranding has done nothing to change that status.
This terrorist designation gives the Russians a propaganda platform as they prepare their attack, as does the fact that the rebels in eastern Aleppo have been launching mortars at civilian targets in the government-held part of the city, and have killed 40 children recently, according to the UN.
While there are precedents for fighters being evacuated, it is far from clear that this will happen in Aleppo. If the Nusra forces are moved to Idlib province, they will be cooped up in a small area and faced with choice of being slaughtered or escaping over the border into Turkey. A heroic but ultimately doomed defence of eastern Aleppo seems for the moment a more likely option. Thought this may be a defining battle in the Syrian war, it will not mark the end of the conflict. The rebellion will live on, though most likely it defining ideology will be that of Nusra.
As for the civilians, logic suggests they should take advantage of the Syrian government’s safe passage offers. But logic does not prevail in sieges. Those who are bombed from the air do not see their airborne attackers as liberators but rather they side with the men defending them, however rough their ideology. Also, it would take a brave man to lead his family through the Syrian army lines, where they may be imprisoned and tortured for information, or just kidnapped for ransom.
The Syrian regime, while it is the recognised government, is now reduced to an array of predatory bands who prey on the population under their control.
The focus at the moment should be on the security of the civilians of Aleppo: the greatest need is for them to have a safe haven – monitored by the UN – where those who want to can escape the battle to come.
It is very much in the interests of the Russians to secure this: if Mr Putin wants a new start with the Trump administration, it is time for him to show his humanity. Nothing is more likely to ruin the chances of Russians and Americans working together than tens of thousands of civilians dead in the battle for Aleppo.
Alan Philps is a commentator on global affairs
On Twitter @aphilps
