The attack on the Italian consulate in Cairo was claimed by a local branch of ISIL in the usual way – a tweet gave details about the booby-trapped vehicle that exploded at 6.30am on Saturday, killing one, injuring nine and blowing out the facade of the charming building that has stood at one of Cairo’s busiest intersections for a hundred years. Both the attack and the subsequent claim of responsibility speak volumes about ISIL. By targeting a western diplomatic mission, it is obvious that the militants want to, literally, run foreigners out of town, frightening away everyone who comes to the Egyptian capital for business – or pleasure. The two attacks in Tunisia were also designed to mortally wound that country’s economy, government, international security standing and self-confidence in the fight against extremism. It’s obvious that the same sort of brutal agenda has been planned for Egypt.
But an interesting question arises from the Cairo consulate attack, which represents a bit of a departure for ISIL, or more accurately, the local entity that claimed responsibility for the blast and which claims allegiance to the so-called caliphate. Is ISIL now veering towards acts of outright terrorism? Until now, it has seemed to fancy itself more like a conventional army, albeit one prone to guerrilla warfare. Until now, it has strived mightily to portray itself as a disciplined force that is taking territory, boldly unpicking cartographical borders drawn by European bureaucrats and giving Muslims everywhere a glorious sense of fighting to reverse western injustices. But then comes the bomb-laden car in Cairo, which seems to suggest a move towards terrorism outside of Iraq.
Why? There could be any number of reasons but two seem especially worthy of note. The curse of popularity and the demon of success. ISIL’s growing popularity as a brand has meant groups in disparate parts of the world have pledged allegiance. Having signed up, it stands to reason that all these new ISIL fighters must be chafing at the bit for something to do. Could the recent attacks be the result?
And then there is ISIL’s success on the battlefield in the past year. With every territorial gain, the bar was set higher but military momentum is more difficult to sustain than cowardly terrorist attacks on soft targets. Terrorist acts are not as faux heroic as fighting for ISIL’s twisted version of faith but the group has not disowned them – or indeed, its local franchisees.
