For some days now, the Line of Control (LOC) between Indian Jammu and Kashmir and Azad Jammu and Kashmir in Pakistan seems to have been hyperactive. There is constant intense firing of small arms, artillery and heavy weapons. What is happening and why?
When assessing an enemy’s intent, militaries prepare hypotheses. These are assessments of the opponent’s movements and how that adversary is likely to try to achieve its objective. Under the circumstances, it is essential to first establish who initiated hostilities before attempting to hypothesise his intent.
Needless to say, both countries accuse the other of making the first move. However, while Pakistan has generally always permitted access to the UN Military Observer Group for India and Pakistan, India has consistently refused observers that same access, which makes it difficult to establish who is to blame this time around.
But one fact could help conclude who is the likely culprit. The Indian military has always outnumbered and outgunned the Pakistan military.
What is more, when a very large proportion of Pakistan’s military is engaged in a serious conflict with the Pakistani Taliban, it would be a foolhardy army chief who would add to his problems by beginning another conflict.
Raheel Sharif, Pakistan’s army chief, does not have a reputation for stupidity or foolhardiness. In fact, during his brief period of command, he has emerged as a cool, level-headed, courageous leader who is not afraid of taking decisions and accepting the consequences. This leads me to conclude that this conflict did not begin with him.
I wrote earlier on the controversy regarding the current Indian army chief’s appointment. Apparently, the ruling BJP party was keen to secure the post for General AK Singh instead of General Dalbir Singh Suhag.
If this is correct then Gen Suhag has a point to prove to his bosses – mainly, that he will not be soft on Pakistan. That conclusion is given credence by the fact that Gen Suhag has issued an aggressive warning to Pakistan.
But what is the end game of such a move? Any additional threat to the Pakistan military is likely to distract it from the continuing operation in the country’s tribal areas. That distraction could result in a revival of the Taliban. This could further destabilise Pakistan and, just as an unstable Afghanistan is a cause of constant concern to Pakistan, it should be a cause for constant concern for India, too.
Since I do not know Gen Suhag, I can hardly comment on him. It is unlikely, however, that he would undertake such a venture without a clear idea of where he intends to go. Military personnel do not work without a clear set of objectives.
While it is possible that these hostilities are intended as mere harassment, I find that difficult to believe. As I stated earlier, this harassment could result in creating the kind of instability in Pakistan that should be as unacceptable to Delhi as it is to Islamabad.
While I am not a conspiracy-theorist, I am also not a believer in coincidences. Certainly not in too many of them. It is too much to believe that all this came together by coincidence.
Just as Pakistan is gaining ground in its largest military operation against the Taliban and seems to be ready to begin a slight economic recovery and receive investments from China, Imran Khan and Tahir Ul Qadri arrived in Islamabad to create a distraction and ensure that the economic recovery stalled.
India also cancelled the secretary-level talks that it had sought. Then it followed that development with unnecessarily aggressive statements and, finally, it has been heating up the LOC.
There has to be method in this apparent madness. But is there a hidden hand behind the scene that is coordinating these coincidences? I don’t know, but I am beginning to believe that there might be.
Brig Shaukat Qadir is a retired Pakistani infantry officer
