The fight for Kobani has raged almost unceasingly for four months. Now that victory has finally been declared, it is necessary to assess the extent and relevance of ISIL’s inability to capture this small Kurdish border town. Might it be the turning point that the anti-ISIL coalition have been seeking? Not quite.
When the militants first trained their gaze on Kobani, ISIL enjoyed incredible momentum as the result of multiple victories across Syria and Iraq and the establishment of a self-declared “caliphate”. The extremist group seemed poised to overrun Kobani with relative ease and the international community was left scrambling to reverse ISIL’s gains. But the town didn’t fall so easily and now, the Kurdish margin of victory in Kobani makes for guarded optimism about the international coalition’s efforts against ISIL.
From Turkish reticence over opening key airbases to coalition planes – in the end, they never were – to the limited ability to arm the Kurds on the front lines, Kobani crystallised the challenges facing the coalition. Yes, it was coalition firepower – more than 700 air strikes on ISIL targets across Syria and Iraq – as well as the superior fighting knowledge of Peshmerga troops from the Kurdistian Regional Government that turned the tables. But at what cost? The siege lasted months and the speed at which the coalition managed to convince crucial partners such as Turkey to assist the fight leaves much room for improvement.
There is a need for caution in assessing the terms of the victory in Kobani. While ISIL’s ability to recruit globally as a result of the defeat might be dented in some small way, its fighters remain just a few kilometres outside the town, still within easy striking distance. Additionally, ISIL appears to be limbering up for what will be a much more serious battle for control of Mosul. Ultimately, Kobani might prove to be just the end of the beginning of the protracted regional conflict involving ISIL. Much will depend on how rapidly the coalition can build on this welcome victory.
