Al Abadi’s ‘government of all the prime ministers’ has some deep-seated challenges to tackle
As a statement of intent, Monday’s formation of a new government in Iraq was powerful. When Iraq’s new prime minister Haider Al Abadi gathers his unity government around the table for the first time, every other prime minister of Iraq this century will be there.
In his first government, Mr Al Abadi has found room for Iyad Allawi (as a vice-president), Ibrahim Al Jaafari (as foreign minister) and even the outgoing prime minister Nouri Al Maliki (as a vice-president). It is an unprecedented display of unity.
And a necessary one, because Iraq faces an unprecedented crisis of division. There is an awful irony at work here, as it is the mutant militant group ISIL that has finally pushed the Iraqis – and their backers in the international community, including both the United States and Iran – towards resolving their differences. The US is still targeting ISIL with air strikes, but this is Iraq’s fight, and the US has made any further military assistance contingent on the formation of a new government.
There can be no concessions to ISIL, no discussion nor compromise. That, at least, makes it the most straightforward of the myriad problems in Mr Al Abadi’s in-tray. If ISIL must be defeated militarily, none of the three other most pressing problems can be tackled through diplomacy.
Start with the Iraqi Sunnis. ISIL were given a toehold in Iraq because the previous prime minister targeted Sunnis and refused to allow them a fair stake in the country. That will have to change. While Iraqi Shia are the majority, they cannot ostracise the largest minority. Mr Al Abadi will have to prove he can offer them real power in government as well as a real role in a nonsectarian Iraqi army.
Then the Kurds. The battle with ISIL has shown both that the Kurds cannot defend themselves without the rest of Iraq, but, also, that their thirst for independence will be very hard to quench. If Mr Al Abadi doesn’t offer reasons to stay, the Kurds may well push for full independence – and soon.
Last of all is Syria. Even without ISIL, Syria is still locked in a grinding civil war. Iraq has not taken as strong a stance as the rest of the Arab world, mainly due to the long border they share. But how Iraq tackles the war next door will matter to the long-term future of both.
With so many tough challenges, Mr Al Abadi will need the combined experience of all three past prime ministers. And the diplomatic skills to make them offer it.
