The importance of diplomacy in an increasingly volatile world may seem axiomatic. Nevertheless, when confronted by a regional neighbourhood in danger of unravelling – such as today’s Horn of Africa – it is worth highlighting how talking remains more critical than ever.
This part of Africa, with its deep ties to neighbouring countries as well as the Middle East, cannot sustain further conflict. In its current state, old rivalries, shifting alliances, the nefarious presence of non-state actors as well as unresolved disputes threaten to once again turn it into a scene of confrontation.
Mistrust is deep after years of conflict and national interests are colliding. Ethiopia's renewed fighting with a rebel alliance comes four years after the 2022 Pretoria Agreement helped end a devastating war in Tigray. This newest conflict risks entangling neighbouring countries, with Addis Ababa accusing Egypt, Sudan and Eritrea of supporting armed groups – allegations they deny.
Meanwhile, Sudan is now in the fourth year of a ruinous civil war between two rival generals accused of war crimes, while Somalia continues to confront the persistent threat posed by armed radicals and inherent state weakness. This north-eastern corner of the African continent increasingly resembles a patchwork of geopolitical zones of influence and competing factions.
The latter is particularly destabilising given how armed groups can become instruments in wider power struggles. Rebel movements and militias ultimately weaken the institutions of the countries in which they operate. In addition, armed factions do not respect borders as neatly as states do, meaning that instability rarely remains confined to one country. The seizure of more territory by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels is a case in point.
There is also a more basic cost. Constant armed rivalry consumes resources and attention that could instead be directed towards roads, ports, schools, health care, trade and jobs. The Horn of Africa and adjoining countries have enormous economic potential, sitting as they do on some of the world's most important maritime routes and strategic positioning. Conflict makes that potential impossible to realise.
Peace, by contrast, pays dividends. Stable borders encourage investment, open trade creates jobs and governments are freed up to spend more on development and less on their militaries. Communities afflicted by displacement and insecurity can begin to rebuild.
Averting the cumulative effect of interlinked crises in the Horn of Africa is vital not only for that region but the wider Middle East too. A four-way summit held on Sunday in Alamein that brought together leading figures from Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan is recognition of the seriousness of the situation. But diplomacy matters most when it includes parties from opposing sides.
Egypt and Ethiopia remain deeply divided over the Nile and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Other regional governments have legitimate and sometimes competing security interests. Mediation and serious diplomatic efforts can help bring the temperature down at a moment when tensions are rising sharply. For millions of people across this part of Africa, that is now essential to avoid further bloodletting and opportunity loss.
