Perhaps the only thing predictable about the US-Iran conflict is its unpredictability. Over the past few days, there have been some credible signs that high-level communication involving the warring parties was taking place. Although a purported breakthrough has yet to materialise, the fact that talks were ongoing and included several regional countries, reassured many that a definitive end to the war was possible.
Yet American strikes on Iranian targets overnight on Tuesday were a worrying reminder that nothing can be taken for granted in this volatile situation. Also worrying was a Centcom spokesman’s claim that the strikes were aimed at protecting US troops from "threats" posed by Iranian forces. The full implications of the American bombardment may not be known for some time, but they are a reminder that Tehran’s ongoing militarisation of the Strait of Hormuz and its belligerence towards its neighbours are unsustainable.
The activities of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in a globally sensitive economic chokepoint have caught the attention of the international community. Less than a week ago, the International Maritime Organisation’s Maritime Safety Committee adopted a UAE-proposed resolution expressing grave concern about Iran’s use of drones, missiles and sea mines in and around the waterway. Among those most at risk from the IRGC’s reckless actions are the estimated 20,000 seafarers stranded on hundreds of ships.
If Iran’s role in the Strait of Hormuz is one source of uncertainty and potential conflict, so too is the fate of Tehran’s 440kg stockpile of enriched uranium. US President Donald Trump this week said this uranium would either be transferred to America for destruction or eliminated in co-ordination with Tehran “in place or at another acceptable location”. On Sunday, Iranian President Mahmoud Pezeshkian was quoted by state media as saying that Tehran “stands ready to reassure the international community that it is not pursuing nuclear weapons or regional instability”.
This reassurance jars with the reality that Iran-aligned proxies in Iraq recently launched drone attacks against the Arab world’s only civilian nuclear power plant – the Barakah facility in Abu Dhabi’s Al Dhafra region. Coupled with the IRGC’s mining of the Strait of Hormuz, this leaves the Iranian leadership with a significant trust and credibility problem.
This can only be solved by Tehran convincing the wider international community that it has no interest in turning Hormuz into a minefield, developing a nuclear weapon or in attacking the peaceful nuclear networks of its neighbours. Similarly, Israel should change course – the country’s ongoing bombardment of Gaza and Lebanon is also contributing to rising regional instability
If the current round of mediation involving Tehran is to produce results, Iran’s leaders will have to deliver. Given everything that has taken place since February 28, this will be a tall order, but it is clear that trust cannot be restored without a real commitment to ending hostilities.
