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US President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran on Saturday, demanding that it reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or face strikes on its power plants. Iran has effectively closed the strait by threatening ships passing through it, laying mines in the waterway and attacking some vessels. Mr Trump’s threat has added a dangerous new dimension to a war that has entered its fourth week and runs the risk of spiralling out of control with possibly catastrophic consequences.
Tehran has adopted a reckless behaviour throughout the war, having launched indiscriminate missile and drone attacks on the six Gulf Co-operation Council member states on a daily basis, in addition to mounting sporadic attacks on Jordan, Azerbaijan and Turkey, in response to American and Israeli strikes inside Iran. Its de facto closure of Hormuz has affected the entire world, too.
But even as elements within the regime have threatened to attack “legitimate targets” were the US to strike its power plants, Tehran has reportedly allowed some vessels to cross the strait. It has also claimed that the waterway is open to all vessels except those linked to “Iran’s enemies”, by which, presumably, it means the US and its allies.
It is worth remembering that closing the waterway is against international law, similar to other unacceptable actions in this war. A partial reopening of the strait is, nonetheless, a promising development. One hopes that this, at least, helps start a period of de-escalation.
Based on the trajectory of Iran’s attacks so far, a retaliation against US strikes would widen the breadth of the war to include more energy facilities as well as power plants, and perhaps even desalination plants that are critical lifelines in an arid region. This would be a disaster for millions of people and cannot be justified in any way.
More broadly, such an escalation would continue to destabilise energy markets, with oil and gas prices expected to rise even further as shipping through the strait, responsible for about one fifth of global oil trade, remains threatened. Amid fears of a recession, the fallout of the closure would be felt globally, including in the US, as it raises fuel prices, grocery bills, manufacturing expenses and transport fares.
For its part, Iran is already paying a steep price. More than 1,500 people have been killed in US and Israeli strikes. Its economy is battered, its military stretched and its diplomatic position collapsing. Just days after the UN Security Council adopted a resolution condemning its attacks in the Gulf, a joint statement last week from key Arab nations, joined by Azerbaijan, Pakistan and Turkey, denounced Tehran’s strikes on the region’s energy installations. With every missile launched, including on the joint US-UK military base in the Chagos Archipelago in the Indian Ocean over the weekend, Tehran is further isolating itself.
Continued retaliatory strikes only serve to escalate matters that end up reducing the options available for warring parties to seek a way out. Washington must also realise that it will take more than threats to force an entrenched Iranian regime, fighting for survival amid continued assassinations of its leaders, to completely open the strait. There is only one way to achieve this critical objective: finding a swift end to the war through diplomatic means.
All eyes will no doubt be on Mr Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum. But an even bigger deadline looms: to begin good-faith negotiations, as soon as possible, to bring not just the warring countries, but also a teetering global economy, back from the brink.
