For all its global importance, the Strait of Hormuz is more akin to a narrow, congested road than a vast maritime waterway. Fewer than 100km across, even at its widest point, the strait’s slim navigable channels usually handle between 100 to 150 vessels a day. Hundreds more wait their turn, floating in the waters of the Arabian Gulf or the Gulf of Oman.
Now imagine this road strewn with mines. Indiscriminate by nature, these pose a real threat to civilian vessels and their crews. Floating mines in particular are not difficult to lay, can drift into the path of unintended targets and, as with their counterparts on land, are difficult to recover.
As an example, it took the US and international forces more than six months to clear Iraqi sea mines following the end of the 1991 Gulf War. Removing mines in an active warzone is close to impossible.
Most observers of the crisis gripping the Strait of Hormuz would rightly regard mining its main entry and exit point as a reckless escalation. And yet, that is what Iran appears to be considering.
Restricting or even closing the Strait of Hormuz would represent a scorched-earth policy with no winners. Choking the strait may frustrate regional energy producers – many of whom are already using alternative routes – but it would also cut off Iran’s own remaining exports, thereby reducing one of the sanctions-hit country’s few remaining sources of income, in addition to affecting the world’s economy for months, if not years to come.
Mining a globally important maritime route also invites more economic sanctions and further international naval action. The latter is something Iran experienced before during the so-called Tanker War, a phase of the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War. Then, repeated attacks on merchant vessels in the Gulf prompted Operation Earnest Will, a UN-backed, US-led naval convoy – the largest since the Second World War – to protect Kuwaiti shipping. Iran ended up with more US military power off its southern shore, not less.
Tehran has more to lose than most by closing the strait. Instead of bending opponents to its will, it will further antagonise its neighbours, bring more economic pain down on its people, leave an estimated 20,000 innocent seafarers stranded and invite further military action. It is questionable if Iran’s few remaining allies will be able – or willing – to help. Tehran should think and step back from its policy of mass destruction.
