In a country with as many difficulties as Syria, no realistic observer could expect that the path to a better future would be a straight one. Given the toxic legacy from decades of misrule and civil war, as well as interference from outside countries, putting the nation back together was never going to be easy.
So it has proved over the past weeks in Syria’s north-east. Weeks of bitter combat there pitted the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces against Syria’s military as well as a plethora of other armed groups. This led to more hardship and displacement for communities in this troubled region as well as reports of atrocities and abuses carried out by different factions. Images of ISIS members escaping the custody of their Kurdish jailors has added to the complexity and danger of the situation.
However, Friday’s news of an agreement reached between Damascus and the SDF– aimed at gradually integrating the group into Syria’s army – offers the tentative possibility of progress. With this deal, critical oil and gas fields, as well as border crossings and prisons in the north-east are now in government hands. This represents a significant step towards re-establishing the country’s territorial and political unity.
But this pact must be more than unity of land. Syria’s Kurds, members of a transnational minority left out of deals between the great powers that shaped the Middle East at the beginning of the 20th century, will be rightly apprehensive about the future. A series of political and strategic missteps by the SDF have left the community in a precarious position. From over-relying on foreign partners such as the US, to imposing a pseudo-Marxist autonomy project in a number of Arab-majority areas, the SDF – once vaunted for beating back ISIS on the battlefield – has lost territory and leverage, making its absorption into Syria’s regular army inevitable.
Despite the apprehension, however, other armed groups – many of them also ostensibly left-wing in orientation – have successfully made the transition from guerrilla war to governance. Ten years ago, Colombia signed a peace deal with the FARC-EP rebel group, largely ending decades of armed conflict. With UN help, nearly 12,000 militants handed in their weapons with many former combatants going on to retrain as rural security forces, tasked with keeping their communities safe. Similarly, following a 2006 peace deal in Nepal, former Maoist rebels handed more than 3,000 weapons, ending a system of parallel government that had challenged the state.
Implementation is now critical. Any backtracking could not only result in more conflict but pose a threat to national and regional security, especially as regards ISIS. President Ahmad Al Shara has a particular responsibility to prove that he can bring his forces under control and ensure that his words about recognising and respecting Kurdish identity are accompanied by deeds.
It is regrettable to see that this accommodation between Damascus and the SDF was reached only after bloodshed. It is particularly frustrating given that the violence was avoidable – the framework of a deal was in place as far back as March last year but was rejected by the SDF. For now, it must be hoped that the hard part is over but both sides have to make the next phase work. Syria has had enough of conflict and division – there simply is no other way forward.
