Can Trump's Gaza peace plan end the war?

Children play at camp in Khan Yunis on Monday. There is no such thing as a perfect deal or a perfect peace but there is one indisputable fact: without a ceasefire, more Palestinians will die. AFP

A little more than a week ago, US President Donald Trump addressed hundreds of officials and diplomats from around the world at the UN General Assembly in New York. In his speech, Mr Trump said he had ended seven wars since returning to office in January. “What I care about is not winning prizes,” he stated, “it’s saving lives.”

Immediately afterwards, this newspaper argued that the US President was in the unique position of being able to end one war in particular, that raging in Gaza. On Monday, that possibility took one step closer to reality with Mr Trump unveiling a detailed plan to halt the fighting, redevelop the Palestinian enclave and set the Middle East on the path for what he promised could be “eternal peace”.

There is much in the 20-point plan to recommend it, including core principles that many in the Arab and Muslim world have supported since the war began almost two years ago. These include a lasting ceasefire, the release of Israeli hostages, access for a UN-led aid mission as well as a new administration that can restore critical services and lead reconstruction. But we have been here before; various plans and glimmers of hope fell through in the past two years.

Trump says end to Gaza war close as he outlines 20-point plan

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But there is good reason to believe that we are seeing a rare case of alignment that could change things for the better. On Tuesday, foreign ministers from several countries including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar and Turkey issued a joint statement welcoming Mr Trump’s “sincere efforts to end the war in Gaza”.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to agree with the White House plan and one of his fiercest political rivals, high-profile former army general Benny Gantz, is reportedly willing to prop up Mr Netanyahu’s government should far-right members of the Cabinet step down in opposition to Mr Trump’s plan.

Palestinians should no longer be caught between a vengeful Israeli government, the militarists of Hamas or imposed solutions that lack domestic legitimacy

Most importantly, however, is the role of Mr Trump himself. Among the plan’s proposals is an international transitional body called the Board of Peace that would have oversight powers over Gaza. This would be led and chaired by the US President. Political will is vital to make deals stick and Mr Trump’s personal involvement would lend this body the necessary leverage to get things done.

The devil though is in the details and there are plenty of caveats. Hamas has yet to give its verdict on the plan, which does not refer to the occupied West Bank. In addition, question marks hang over the implementation of some of its key provisions, such as Hamas decommissioning – a process that, even if agreed upon, could take months or years to complete.

Amid this uncertainty, the main consideration must be the surviving civilian population of Gaza – those thousands upon thousands of people who have been starved, displaced, injured or traumatised by almost 24 months of collective punishment. Hamas too has hard questions to answer; after its deadly gamble on October 7, 2023 – during which the militants committed many war crimes of their own – what is to be gained by further armed struggle?

One thing is vital: Palestinians must have agency in this process and their political rights must be respected. Palestinians should no longer be caught between a vengeful Israeli government, the militarists of Hamas or imposed solutions that lack domestic legitimacy. This requires pragmatism and compromise.

There is no such thing as a perfect deal or a perfect peace but there is one indisputable fact: without a ceasefire, more Palestinians will die today, tomorrow and the next day. Anything that can head off that outcome must be studied in good faith and, if agreed to, be given a chance to work. The peaceful future of the Middle East as a whole depends on it.