The world’s first cross-border deal on water resources was struck in the Middle East, more than 4,000 years ago. Lagash and Umma, two ancient city states in modern-day Iraq, agreed to the Mesilim Treaty in 2,500 BC, recording its legal terms about sharing water from the Tigris and Euphrates on limestone.
Fast forward to today, and although many countries in the Middle East and beyond have reached bilateral or even regional water agreements, disputes and disagreements persist. The problem will inevitably be exacerbated by global warming; the UN has warned that worldwide demand for water is set to rise by 20 to 30 per cent by 2050, while droughts have already surged in frequency by nearly a third since 2000.
Where there is water scarcity, there is often also the potential for armed conflict. At a water security conference held by Trends Research and Advisory in Abu Dhabi this week officials, academics and industry leaders heard how a failure to manage fresh water co-operatively and sustainably could have dangerous repercussions. Sir Liam Fox, a former UK defence minister, said water is becoming a security issue governments can no longer afford to ignore.
“You can see where there are points of potential conflict around the world,” Sir Liam told The National. “The question is, will we put in place systems that will try to anticipate the issues and defuse them before they become a crisis?” Given that more than two billion people worldwide still lack access to safe drinking water, and the World Bank estimates that scarcity could shave up to 6 per cent off GDP in some regions by the middle of the century, it is a pertinent question.
What is missing from the picture is an agreed framework that can help to resolve international disputes over precious water resources and prevent violent conflict. Reaching such an understanding would be a complex and drawn-out process, but there is plenty of recent precedents for just such a treaty.
In May, nations were able to come together to agree on an international pandemic treaty, committing themselves to pooling resources and research. Two years earlier, the UN High Seas Treaty – a legally binding international agreement – was adopted to conserve and sustainably use marine biodiversity. And although negotiations to establish a global treaty on plastics are ongoing, the fact that countries are still in talks shows that even the biggest global challenges can be met collaboratively.
When it comes to water, however, the picture is more mixed. Many treaties that govern water use – such as the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan and the Senegal River Basin Convention – were reached decades ago; the world has changed much since then. Bilateral deals are also vulnerable to sudden shocks; India temporarily suspended the Indus Waters Treaty after the deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam attack earlier this year.
The reality is that even protracted disagreements over water – such as the ongoing Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute – could benefit from an agreed, binding set of rules that lay down the core principles of water use, something that would pave the way for independent arbitration and conflict resolution.
It's a big ask and would undoubtedly take a long time to achieve, but failing to act in a world beset by climate-change-related drought and mounting pressure on water supplies would be to leave many vulnerable societies a hostage to fortune in the turbulent decades to come.
