Six months on from the fall of Bashar Al Assad and despite the series of profound changes that have taken place in Syria since then, the country is best described as one that’s in a state of flux.
In many ways, the transformation seen so far is remarkable – millions who had been forced into exile are now able to visit their home country for the first time in many years, the misshapen command economy of the Assad era is giving way to billions of dollars in outside investment, thousands of Syrians are returning from exile, the banking sector is re-establishing itself and the new administration in Damascus is renewing important ties with governments across the Middle East and further afield.
However, to prevent this transition from stalling, the country’s people and foreign investors need to feel that Syria is a safe place. Without law and order or a professional, modern military and police force to maintain stability, there is the danger that Syria’s recovery will prove to be a house built on sand.
There are signs that Damascus is heading in the right direction on this critical issue. In a recent exclusive interview, a Syrian military official told The National that the authorities have so far recruited half of a planned 200,000-man army. Among this number is a 3,500-man brigade, comprising mostly of foreign fighters, allies of Hayat Tahrir Al Sham – the group that led the rebel offensive that removed the former regime last year.
In one sense, this is a sound strategic move; bringing HTS’s civil war allies into the fold meets a major US demand to contain them. It is also far from unprecedented – many professional armies employ foreigners or have entire units that are made up of foreign citizens or former militia members. However, caveats remain. Many of the fighters in Syria are not just foreign citizens, they have a political and religious agenda or loyalty to individual commanders. Some may be wanted men in their own countries.
Those overseeing Syria’s new army will have to monitor their ranks closely and build a culture of loyalty to the state and its laws. This is a test of Syrian unity, and although mistakes and setbacks should be expected, it is a test that Syria cannot be allowed to fail. The people must have confidence in those whose job it is to protect them.
Similarly, the people must have confidence that the new government can deliver overall. Speaking recently to The National, a Damascus doctor gave a sober assessment of the country: “Economically, nothing has changed. People are still tired, salaries are low, there’s no money in the country, and there’s no electricity.” Without tangible improvements in employment, services and security, the momentum behind Syria’s transformation could wane.
In addition, the country faces a string of challenges. Significant armed groups, such as the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces and members of the Syrian National Army, remain outside the control of Damascus. SDF-run camps still house thousands of ISIS prisoners and their families. Meanwhile, Israeli troops continue to occupy Syrian territory, posing a significant and destabilising security problem.
But there are signs of progress on the security front. Last week, Syrian Interior Minister Anas Khattab said the government had seized control of all Captagon laboratories in the country, undermining a deadly criminal trade over the past decade that affected the entire region. When taken with moves to build a dependable army, it is possible to see the Syrian authorities building upon the euphoria the followed the end of the Assad era. Where the country stands six months from now will reveal if the government’s choices were the right ones.
