Lebanon has had many moments of upheaval in its recent history. It has had far fewer moments of optimism. But with the election of a new president this month and the selection of a prime minister with international backing and solid credentials, there is a glimmer of hope for change.
The process of forming a new government has begun. But this administration faces the Herculean task of proving itself not just to citizens but to the international community, including the wealthy donor states who have committed to helping secure Lebanon’s future.
First and foremost, Lebanon’s new leadership must demonstrate a genuine commitment to resetting its political dynamics and, by extension, its relationship with its people and even the outside world. This means, above all, tackling corruption. The new Prime Minister-designate, Nawaf Salam, has promised a great deal, but he cannot carry the burden alone.
The country needs to implement a programme of economic revitalisation. Lebanon has been in the throes of a severe economic crisis, its currency plummeting and most of its citizenry struggling to meet their basic needs. According to the World Bank, the damage done since the economic crisis began in 2019 amounts to about $10 billion.
In an interview with The National this week, the country’s caretaker Economy Minister, Amin Salam, warned that “merely appointing new officials is insufficient”. Donors, he said, “want to see execution – real governance in action, in addition to accountability and reform”.
It helps that Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant party that has obstructed genuine progress in Lebanese politics for years, is on the backfoot as a result of a war with Israel that it was ill-prepared to fight.
Now, the government must attract international aid and investment by showcasing transparency and accountability. This involves not only fiscal discipline but also judicial reforms to ensure that economic mismanagement and corruption are penalised.
“The old system is like a virus in the body, fighting back in every way possible,” Mr Salam said. “Despite the strong push from major international players that made this change possible, the system internally is still resisting.”
But the path to sustainable change in Lebanon is not solely dependent on internal efforts. The international community, particularly the western powers who have endorsed the new Lebanese administration, will play a pivotal role. For Lebanon to reform effectively, there must be a stable environment free from external threats.
The ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel, brokered by the US and France, was meant to include the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory. Israel, however, has thus far failed to comply with these terms. It has maintained its military presence in the south of its neighbour and, Lebanese sources have told The National, is installing heavy equipment in five locations – indicating it does not plan to leave by the new February 18 withdrawal deadline.
The international community must exert pressure on Israel to respect the ceasefire terms in full. This isn’t merely about ending hostilities but about creating a space where Lebanon can focus on internal reforms without the looming threat of conflict. The continued Israeli occupation is also a hindrance to the new Lebanese government’s ability to implement security reforms and strengthen the Lebanese Armed Forces.
Lebanon’s fledgling government is at a crossroads where it must prove its commitment to change domestically while its international allies must act decisively to ensure that regional peace supports this process. Without this dual effort, the country’s journey towards stability will remain fraught. This is not just a test for Lebanon. It is a test for its friends, too.
