With a victorious Donald Trump having taken the oath of office to become the 47th President of the US, America’s new commander-in-chief is confronted by a Middle East that is in the grip of rapid and profound transformation. Navigating this complex situation will require all of Mr Trump’s much-vaunted dealmaking experience.
If the latest occupant of the Oval Office wants to build on his reputation as man who gets things done, particularly after the Gaza ceasefire deal, then the Middle East should be a priority – but only if the country's new leader learns from previous American missteps.
Mr Trump is inheriting a Middle East and foreign policy portfolio that changed dramatically during Joe Biden’s tenure as commander-in-chief. Mr Biden’s mismanaged and destabilising withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan in 2021 upended 20 years of development efforts in the war-torn country.
Much else has changed since then, with the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023 and the subsequent 15-month war in Gaza being the catalyst for much of it. Lebanon has been invaded, Hezbollah humbled, Iran’s influence curbed, the Houthi rebels of Yemen emboldened and Syria’s Assad dynasty has crumbled. Gaza itself lies in ruins. The new Middle East that is taking shape will require a defter touch than Mr Trump’s sometimes displayed during his first four years in the White House.
His initial approach to the Middle East contained some inauspicious moments. Mr Trump’s administration took several actions that reversed decades of American policy and explicitly favoured Israel. These included moving the US embassy to Jerusalem, cutting aid to the UN’s agency for Palestinian refugees and declaring that Israeli settlement activity in the occupied West Bank was not inconsistent with international law. Mr Trump’s incoming cabinet contains figures known for their unbending ideological commitment to Israel.
However, Mr Trump’s first term also shows that a pragmatic, can-do approach capable of breaking decades of diplomatic impasses is possible. The 2020 Abraham Accords that established relations between Israel and several Arab countries provided a template for economic and diplomatic co-operation in this region. Given Mr Trump’s stated fondness of dealmaking, it is possible that this approach may come back into play.
There is more chance of this happening if America’s new president judiciously uses his country’s considerable influence over Israel to encourage its leadership to adhere to the current phased ceasefire deal in Gaza, one that Mr Trump was instrumental in achieving. Indeed, with the departure of some ultra-right members from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition government – and some tough talkers among Mr Trump’s team – this might be an opportune time for a comprehensive reset.
The lesson learnt should be that any lasting peace in the Middle East necessarily includes Palestinian aspirations. This was made clear in a recent statement by Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to President Sheikh Mohamed, welcoming the ceasefire in Gaza and calling for a Palestinian state. By buying into the necessity of Palestinian sovereignty, and working again in co-operation with valued Arab partners, Mr Trump can not just play his part in shaping a rapidly changing Middle East, he can credibly say that he has perhaps struck the greatest deal of them all.
