Given the almost unimaginable suffering that has taken place in Gaza for a year and a half, the main reaction to last night’s news of a truce between Israel and Hamas should be one of solemn relief. For the first time since a seven-day truce in November 2023, Gazan civilians can hopefully look forward to the prospect of at least 42 days without Israeli bombardments. The families of Israeli hostages waiting anxiously for their loved ones since the Hamas attacks of October 7 can also feel some hope.
Such relief must be accompanied by swift action, particularly when it comes to getting food, medicine, clothing and fuel to homeless, malnourished and ill people in the ravaged Palestinian territory. As speculation mounted this week that a ceasefire was imminent, the UN on Tuesday said it was preparing to expand humanitarian assistance to Gaza. This readiness to take advantage of the pause in the fighting was encouraging but much else remains uncertain.
Will Israel, Hamas and other Palestinian factions respect the truce? The only precedent in this round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is the November 2023 ceasefire that created an opening for desperately needed humanitarian aid to enter southern Gaza and allowed for the exchange of dozens of Hamas-held hostages for Israeli-held Palestinian prisoners and detainees. However, that truce, although largely successful, was marred by claim and counterclaim that it had been broken.
In the medium term, the focus should be on ensuring that all phases of the deal are met and making this truce a permanent one. Ending the war for good requires a clear plan for urgently needed governance in Gaza, a full Israeli withdrawal and reviving a political settlement process based on two states for the Israeli and Palestinian peoples. In short, as the guns fall silent, a level of political and diplomatic momentum must be built that cannot be reversed.
As the truce is due to begin on Sunday, it is also important to reflect on all that Palestinian society has lost. Last Friday, The Lancet medical journal said that its estimate of deaths caused by traumatic injury in Gaza during the first nine months of the war was about 40 per cent higher than that recorded by the Hamas-run health ministry. While the British publication estimates that more than 64,000 Gazans lost their lives, this does not take account of a generation of children scarred by trauma or those who have suffered life-changing injuries. Thousands of people remain missing or in Israeli detention and Gaza has almost no functioning institutions or infrastructure. A truce is only a first step in righting some of these wrongs.
The relief felt by many today will be rightly tempered by caution. Some in Israel, whose forces have still been bombing Gaza and whose security cabinet will vote on whether to accept or reject the truce later today, are unhappy that the illusory goal of “total victory” in Gaza remains unfulfilled. Israel’s settler-right appear to be particularly angry that their plans of re-occupation will be frustrated by this planned de-escalation. There are other flashpoints – such as the West Bank – where hardliners could try to undermine the fragile ceasefire.
In this new situation, Washington retains a pivotal role. As US president-elect Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House on Monday, many will recall his threat to Hamas that “all hell will break loose” if the remaining Israeli hostages are not released. However, any Gazan could truthfully say that hell broke loose in their homes, their streets and their communities 15 months ago. Despite the many caveats, with a new approach this ceasefire may finally be the first step on the way out of this hell for all in Palestine and Israel.
