As the Middle East enters a new year, several major changes are taking place. Syria’s interim government is hosting foreign dignitaries and sending envoys on regional tours. In Gaza, there are reports that negotiations on a ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas have made significant progress. In Lebanon, an imperfect ceasefire continues to hold as the country’s politicians prepare to meet this week and choose a new president.
There is less expectation for progress in Yemen, which remains a hotspot of entrenched volatility. Last week, it was reported that extremists from Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula executed 11 people, including a Yemeni journalist. On New Year’s Eve, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels fired missiles at Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport and a power station in southern Jerusalem. The Houthis were on the receiving end of attacks, too, with US Central Command saying it carried out strikes against rebel targets in Yemen's capital and coastal locations. The plight of ordinary Yemenis continues with little global attention.
Despite the recent setbacks experienced by the so-called Axis of Resistance, the Iran-backed proxy network that includes the Houthis, the Yemeni rebels appear to be secure at home and continue to rule with a heavy hand. Last month, The National spoke to Yemeni parents who were concerned about their children after the Houthis introduced a weapons-training programme for high school and university students in areas under their control. The country continues to experience the world’s worst humanitarian crisis and internationally, the Houthis have turned the Red Sea into a battleground by attacking international shipping.
This stalemate could soon be shaken up as US president-elect Donald Trump prepares to return to power. Under President Joe Biden, Washington’s Yemen policy began with a focus on aid and diplomacy but since the Gaza war has changed to one defined largely by air strikes. This has achieved little. It has failed to dislodge the Houthis, whose attacks against Israel and international shipping continue. Arguably, it has even emboldened them further.
Previous attempts to support Yemen’s legitimate government with mainly military means ultimately proved unsatisfactory. Saudi Arabia, which led the Arab Coalition – the multinational force that responded in 2015 to a request for help from Yemen’s then president – has engaged in mediation efforts with the Houthis since 2022. Although it has been a drawn-out process, it remains an important diplomatic route out of perpetual crisis. The experience of Yemen’s neighbours in so engaging with the Houthis could be instructive.
By listening to security partners in the Gulf, empowering Yemen’s legitimate government, putting pressure on external actors who support the Houthis, breaking arms-smuggling routes, and backing a unified talks process, the US can play a meaningful and multifaceted role in ending this persistent crisis. But the first step must be for Washington to use its undoubted influence to swiftly end Israel’s war in Gaza. This would not only remove the excuse used by the Houthis for their destabilising actions in the Red Sea and wider Middle East, it would also end the situation in which Israel effectively shapes US actions towards Yemen.
A failure to find new ways forward offers only festering instability and militant rule over large parts of the country. Yemen’s people, and the Middle East, deserve better than that.
