Events are spiralling out of control. A Gaza ceasefire is the key to restoring calm

A man's bag explodes in a Beirut supermarket on Tuesday. In addition to the members of Hezbollah killed and injured in the widespread attack attributed to Israel, two of those who died were children. ReutersShow less

A defining characteristic of the bitter conflict that has racked the Middle East since October 7 last year is its sheer number of outrageous – almost unprecedented – incidents.

From an Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic complex in Syria to Houthi drones and missiles travelling thousands of kilometres to land in Israel – not to mention Hamas’s attack on Israeli towns and the collective punishment of Palestinians still taking place in Gaza – barely a week goes by without another scarcely believable development.

Yesterday’s audacious – and indiscriminate – attack on Hezbollah’s pager network in Lebanon is another such incident. It is also another step on the road to an uncontrollable war.

Antonio Guterres warns Lebanon cannot become the next Gaza

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As the devices exploded in homes, supermarkets and on the streets, it became apparent that this was quantitatively different to the kind of targeted assassinations often attributed to Israel’s intelligence services. Footage posted online showed devices blowing up beside Lebanese civilians going about their day. In addition to members of Hezbollah killed and injured, two of those killed were children.

The National spoke to one woman as she waited for news about injured relatives. The scenes she saw in Beirut’s Bahman Hospital were straight out of a film, she said: “There was blood everywhere, people without eyes, holes in their back and their hands covered in blood.”

There was a time when such incidents would have led to focused diplomatic efforts to contain and be analysed for weeks. Now, one startling event in this spiralling conflict is swiftly followed by another, leaving people in the Levant with the feeling that things are now utterly out of control. Lebanese civilians are living in terror, Gaza has been destroyed, the West Bank is under attack and Israeli civilians displaced from the north of the country are fearful of strikes from as far away as Yemen. Officials and humanitarians seem unable to stop this drumbeat of escalation.

Yet, that is exactly what must happen – and an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, something demanded by the vast majority of the international community, should be the starting point. In his exclusive interview with The National published today, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned that “we are seeing the risks of spreading this conflict to Lebanon, to other parts of the Middle East”. However, he also made clear that despite regional tensions, “hope is the last thing we should lose”, adding that “negotiations are going on and … problems that exist are relatively minor if there is political will to solve them”.

There was a time when such incidents would have been analysed for weeks. Now, one incredible event in this conflict is swiftly followed by another

Although that political will seems in short supply right now, events like yesterday’s mass bombing in Lebanon may leave the various protagonists with no option but to return to the path of peace. Hezbollah has little to show for its interventions since October 7 and a failure to respond will be seen as weakness. But a strong response could lead to Israel carrying out a more intense attack that could devastate Lebanon.

Similarly, Israel is under considerable pressure on several fronts – politically, militarily and diplomatically. Its apparent escalation in Lebanon invites an armed response that makes it less likely that it will achieve its stated war aim of enabling thousands of internally displaced civilians to return home.

Given the dizzying pace of incredible events and red lines being crossed in this war, it is more vital than ever that there is a ceasefire in Gaza, the remaining Israeli hostages and Palestinian detainees are released and that the political process be restarted with international support. The alternative is waiting for another attack – or mistake – that could tip the balance into full-scale war.