A Gaza ground war will make a bad situation even worse

Palestinians check the damage at the site of Israeli strikes on houses in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip. Reuters

Israeli soldiers and military vehicles near the border with Gaza. EPA

Palestinians injured in Israeli air raids arrive at Nasser Medical Hospital in Khan Younis, Gaza. Getty Images

Protesters call for a ceasefire and the release of hostages held by Hamas since the October 7 attack. AFP

The protest was held near the headquarters of the Israeli Defence Ministry in Tel Aviv. AFP

Smoke and flames rise from buildings after an Israeli strike on Gaza City. AFP

Destruction in Gaza City after an Israeli air strike. AFP

A wounded Palestinian is taken into Al Shifa hospital after Israeli air strikes on Gaza City. AP

Israelis at a cemetery in Holon during a funeral take cover as a siren warns of incoming rockets fired from the Gaza Strip. AP

Posters of hostages abducted by Hamas form part of an installation consisting of 224 light pillars erected by the Jerusalem municipality outside Teddy Stadium. AFP

Supporters of Palestine hold a rally in New York's financial district to demand that American financial institutions stop financing weapons manufacturing. AFP

Army rescue crews assess the damage after a rocket fired from the Gaza Strip hit a building in Rishon LeTsiyon, Israel. Getty Images

Israeli strikes as seen from a tent camp sheltering displaced Palestinians. Reuters

Israeli armoured vehicles take part in an operation, as the conflict between Israel and Hamas continues, at a location given as the northern Gaza Strip. Reuters

A Palestinian man is comforted as he mourns the death of his daughter and his wife, who were killed by Israeli strikes. Reuters

Satellite view of damaged areas in the Beit Hanoun district of Gaza as a result of fighting between Israel and Hamas. Reuters

Beit Hanoun was hit by Israeli missiles. Reuters

Two brothers on a stretcher after being rescued from beneath the rubble of a destroyed area in Gaza. EPA

Israeli security forces gather along a cordoned-off street where an apartment building was hit by a rocket fired from Gaza, in Rishon LeZion, near Tel Aviv. AFP

Rescuers in front of an apartment building hit by a rocket in the Israeli city of Rishon LeZion. AFP

Red Crescent Society employees and volunteers handle humanitarian aid bound for Gaza at a warehouse in Arish, Egypt. EPA

Men lower one of the coffins during the funeral of British-Israelis Lianne Sharabi and her daughters Noiya Sharabi, 16, and Yahel Sharabi, 13, in Kfar Harif, Israel. EPA

An Israeli soldier in a ruined house in the kibbutz of Beeri, near the border with Gaza. EPA

The aftermath of wide-scale strikes, which Israel says struck Hamas emergency operational apparatus, including war rooms, infrastructure and military headquarters, in Gaza. Reuters

Palestinians search for casualties after Israeli attacks on houses in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip. Reuters

Rescuers look for casualties in Khan Younis. Reuters

Palestinian Ali Daba and his wife have separated their children and given them bracelets to help identify them in case they are killed in Israeli strikes. Their daughter shows her bracelet at their shelter in Khan Younis. Reuters

In Tel Aviv, teddy bears with their eyes covered and signs of injury go on show to highlight the young children and babies missing, believed to be being held by Hamas. Getty

Palestinians near the rubble of a building following overnight Israeli strikes on the Rafah refugee camp in the southern Gaza Strip. AFP

Members of the Palestine Red Crescent Society distribute aid in Deir Al Balah, in the Gaza Strip. Reuters

Pro-Israel, left, and pro-Palestine protesters face off during a demonstration in reaction to the Gaza conflict, in central Atlanta, Georgia. EPA

Orit Meir, the mother of Almog Meir Jan who was taken hostage by Hamas while attending the Nova festival in Israel, at the family's home in Or Yehuda. Reuters

A soldier puts on protective gear in Ramle, Israel, as he prepares to identify those killed by Hamas during the October 7 attack. Getty Images

Palestinians wounded in Israeli air strikes arrive at Nasser hospital in Khan Younis, Gaza. Getty Images

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, centre, speaks with the father of one of the hostages held by Hamas, before a UN Security Council meeting in New York. EPA

French President Emmanuel Macron, left, and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas attend a meeting in the occupied West Bank city of Ramallah. EPA

Survivors of Israel's bombardment of Gaza being treated at a trauma ward at Nasser hospital in Khan Younis. AFP

Smoke rises after an air strike on Gaza, as seen from southern Israel. Reuters

A woman holds placards identifying one of the Israeli hostages held by Hamas during a demonstration in Tel Aviv. AFP

Quite often, a bad situation can be made worse. When it comes to a situation as extreme and as volatile as what’s happening in Palestine and Israel, the ceiling for any potential catastrophe is particularly high.

Although there has been no let-up in the Israeli air strikes that have claimed thousands of Palestinian lives so far – overnight bombing raids on Gaza killed more than 100 people on Monday alone – the continuing threat of a ground invasion by Israeli troops hangs over the heads of the blockaded enclave’s 2.3 million people. The likely consequences of such an operation for Gazan civilians are grim, but things are far from clear cut for Israel. There are many humanitarian, political and strategic reasons why a full-scale ground war should be avoided, and it is not just critics of Israel who are urging caution.

White House National Security spokesman John Kirby said on Monday that although Israel's army and political leadership would make the final decision on the timing and scope of any invasion, the US was “talking to them about all the kinds of consequences, second and third-order effects, that come from making decisions on the battlefield and what that means”.

Thousands of Gazans have already died in Israeli air strikes since the October 7 attacks by Hamas that resulted in the deaths of 1,400 Israelis, most of them civilians. Getty

US President Joe Biden was more direct when he said that a reoccupation of Gaza by Israel would be “a big mistake”. Although there appears to be little appetite right now among the Israeli military for taking and holding territory in Gaza, the October 7 attack by Hamas, during which it killed more than 1,400 Israelis – mostly civilians – has ushered in a new paradigm, and nothing can be taken for granted any more.

Israel has mobilised more than 300,000 troops and reservists. And although many Israelis back a ground war, the near-certainty of more Israeli casualties could eat into that support, particularly given the way in which the massive protests that rocked Israeli cities before the current conflict revealed a public deeply unhappy with its current political leadership. This is to say nothing of the economic impact of calling up so many reservists for weeks – or potentially months.

There is also the uncertain fate of more than 200 Israeli hostages abducted by Hamas militants. Their safety amid powerful Israeli air strikes is already in doubt but the consequences of a major ground incursion for them cannot be predicted. The families of some hostages have been pleading with the Israeli government to pause and allow more time for negotiations. This call may grow louder if Hamas continues to release handfuls of Israeli civilians.

In addition, Gaza is not the only front in this conflict and the sight of Israeli troops and armour crossing into the beleaguered territory could be the trigger for Hezbollah to step up its attacks in the north. The effects of a ground invasion on other regional enemies of Israeli can only be guessed at but it is safe to assume that it would only add to the volatility.

Neither is there any guarantee that an operation involving brutal street and tunnel fighting will either restore Israel’s military deterrence or destroy Hamas. Even former Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon – a security hawk – saw the strategic inadvisability of trying to pacify Gaza militarily, and unilaterally pulled Israeli troops and settlers out in 2005.

Israeli troops have already spent decades occupying the West Bank, and the consequences there have been more or less continual instability and insecurity, which created the need for a permanent military presence. Sending large numbers of soldiers into somewhere like Gaza is one thing – getting them out again is another.

Israel’s political and military leadership will make its own decision, but the country is still reeling from an unprecedented loss of life at the hands of Hamas. There has been no shortage of high-level diplomatic visits to Israel to express support and solidarity – French President Emmanuel Macron was in the country yesterday. Those who have influence with Israel’s leadership would do well to outline the potential for even more disaster that a full-scale invasion of Gaza could bring.