ISIL is at its weakest point since its rise in the summer of 2014. After more than 1,000 days of relentless American-led operations against it, ISIL has suffered on all fronts. The once well equipped and 35,000-strong organisation now appears to be depleting.
As the group’s territorial base nears collapse, a fitting question is how the success of the 60-nation campaign should be appropriately measured.
In public briefings, officials typically focus on the obvious contrasts. ISIL has lost the bulk of its fighters and a large number of its commanders. Its territory shrunk by over 80 per cent in Iraq and 60 per cent in Syria. Its ability to make money is markedly reduced. Foreign fighters are unable to flock into Syria and Iraq as they did in 2014, and significantly fewer are now willing to join it in the first place. The group also no longer has the ability to disseminate its online propaganda in the way it did two years ago.
With such achievements in mind, the organisation is clearly a shadow of its former self. It does not seem to have the same military, financial and propaganda capabilities of 2014, and its enemies are battle hardened and know how to push back against its attempts to capture new areas.
In my opinion, though, there is a more prudent measurement of the damage inflicted on ISIL. During a recent talk to senior policymakers, I was asked about how success against the group can be measured, and I propose to answer the same question in the form of a challenge: name a single instance in which national forces in Iraq or Syria have dislodged ISIL from a major stronghold without heavy American planning and air, operational and logistical support. A major stronghold is defined as a populated area that ISIL controlled and fought to defend.
Around 35,000 Iraqi forces, with the aid of Iranian generals, tried to do so in Tikrit in March 2015. They failed until the United States entered the battle, even though ISIL had a few hundred fighters in the city. Two years after that attempt, the challenge of fighting a now significantly weakened organisation in an urban centre remains roughly the same.
If the US-led campaign has indeed "crushed" ISIL, the damage should expectedly translate into a weakened ability to endure against well trained or battle-hardened forces. A test of this proposition is for the anti-ISIL coalition to let local ground forces liberate one major ISIL stronghold to demonstrate they can do it on their own.
A counter-argument may be that these forces are in fact capable of extricating ISIL from a major stronghold but that the US simply prefers to provide intensive support to prevent their depletion.
Another point to be made is that even if national forces still cannot expel it from crowded areas, the international campaign will probably remove that need from them in the coming months.
But the point is not for locals to fight ISIL on their own. It is simply an exercise to point out that the international campaign has a long way to go before it truly damages ISIL as an organisation. Also, national forces still lack the ability to protect themselves without the need for precision air support from the US, in many cases even after these forces have expelled ISIL and secured the liberated areas.
“Taking territory away from them is such a temporary activity,” Craig Whiteside, professor at the Naval War College Monterey, told me. “It is no way to measure success against an insurgent group that can easily move back to an earlier stage of activity and organisation.”
Dr Whiteside added that cooperation at all levels among international and local powers is the only way to dismantle the organisation. “[ISIL] will be strong until they are dismantled, in a more thorough way than the fantasies we have about 2008-2010.”
The counterarguments would also miss a point. The group’s continued ability to run a full-fledged urban insurgency without signs of operational fragility means that its organisational structures remain resilient. The enormous damages to its finances, cadres and mobility over the past three years have little impact on its ability to function as an organisation, something that will ensure its long-term durability if it is not duly challenged. The group is aware of the need to maintain organisational leadership to ensure ability to fight effectively on several fronts. In fact, ISIL touched on this aspect in one of its releases last week: a commentary by the group claimed that well executed hit-and-run operations in Tikrit and in an area between Haditha and Bayji in Iraq proved that the organisation still operates in the same way its founders led it and that the campaign has not altered that.
And that is largely true. Numerous examples in recent months indicate that the group can still plan simultaneous attacks or launch hit-and-run operations to reduce pressure from hotspots.
According to a high-ranking US officer, such attacks demonstrate the group’s enduring abilities to coordinate and manage an expansive battlefield.
Even though almost all the known leaders from the group’s early generation have been eliminated, there is no evidence that its organisational leadership has crumbled.
The inability of local forces to dislodge the group from a major stronghold on their own is a glaring flaw in the campaign to defeat ISIL, unless the US air force plans to remain on standby indefinitely. This shortcoming is an indication that ISIL is still intact organisationally and is therefore capable of preserving its core, maintaining insurgency and ultimately recovering.
Hassan Hassan is a senior fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy and co-author of ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror
On Twitter: @hxhassan
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Poacher
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Trolls World Tour
Directed by: Walt Dohrn, David Smith
Starring: Anna Kendrick, Justin Timberlake
Rating: 4 stars
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Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Cricket World Cup League Two
Oman, UAE, Namibia
Al Amerat, Muscat
Results
Oman beat UAE by five wickets
UAE beat Namibia by eight runs
Fixtures
Wednesday January 8 –Oman v Namibia
Thursday January 9 – Oman v UAE
Saturday January 11 – UAE v Namibia
Sunday January 12 – Oman v Namibia
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
'Ghostbusters: From Beyond'
Director: Jason Reitman
Starring: Paul Rudd, Carrie Coon, Finn Wolfhard, Mckenna Grace
Rating: 2/5
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
So what is Spicy Chickenjoy?
Just as McDonald’s has the Big Mac, Jollibee has Spicy Chickenjoy – a piece of fried chicken that’s crispy and spicy on the outside and comes with a side of spaghetti, all covered in tomato sauce and topped with sausage slices and ground beef. It sounds like a recipe that a child would come up with, but perhaps that’s the point – a flavourbomb combination of cheap comfort foods. Chickenjoy is Jollibee’s best-selling product in every country in which it has a presence.
The Great Derangement: Climate Change and the Unthinkable
Amitav Ghosh, University of Chicago Press
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
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MORE ON THE US DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less