Now that the president of the United States has named John Bolton as his new national security advisor and nominated Mike Pompeo to be the next Secretary of State, we enter the "be careful what you wish for" stage of US-Middle East politics.
These appointments mean that it is virtually certain that sometime in the middle of May, the United States will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. The president has said he was inclined to do this to many including recent visitors from the region. Washington observers like Senate Foreign Relations Committee chair Bob Corker have predicted it. Mr Bolton has frequently called for it.
Expect it to happen. The big question becomes: then what?
Three types of fall-out from this action are likely. At least two of them and possibly all three will be seen by those who have advocated for this action from the US as unhappy outcomes.
First, rather than isolating Iran and putting pressure on that country’s leaders, unilateral US withdrawal will isolate America. None of the other signatories of the JCPOA (the acronym for the nuclear deal) will go along with the US. All will continue to honour the deal. Most will assist Iran to make up for the pressure imposed by the US.
The US will be seen as a rogue state among the leaders of the international community. Its standing will falter. It will be seen as less reliable as a negotiating partner. (A nuclear deal with North Korea, always a long shot, will be torpedoed by this action as the North Koreans will have zero reason to believe any commitments made by US negotiators.) But most importantly from the point of view of those who support such a pull-out, it won't increase pressure on Iran in any meaningful way and it will weaken the US as a diplomatic or political force on many levels.
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Second, and this falls more directly into the category of unintended consequences, as the legal pressure on the president of the United States grows due to the investigation of the special counsel and potential investigations from both the press and, after the November elections, from a Democratic House of Representatives, new questions will arise about the influence of Middle Eastern leaders and donors on the decisions of the US.
In other words, the decision to unilaterally pull out of the Iran deal will not simply be seen as a bad idea from a president with little grasp of its consequences, it will be examined as evidence of heightened influence from abroad. This will, in turn, deepen investigations in this area, which are likely to persist and grow more intense as this year progresses. The result may be, therefore, that rather than strengthening US allies in the region, the relationships are inadvertently compromised.
Finally, this will leave only one avenue for the US president and his allies who have supported the pull-out from the Iran deal to prove that the pull-out was necessary. That is, of course, to raise tensions with Iran to the point that the country is seen as a greater threat and, perhaps, to the point that armed conflict is the result.
One question at this time will be whether this conflict involves the military forces of the US or proxy actors who have American support. The latter seems slightly more likely given US politics and the lack of appetite for more deep military engagement in the region. But whether the US military is directly involved or the confrontation involves Arab powers, the likelihood of conflict between the US and/or its allies with Iran is higher now than it has been at any time in modern memory.
The US is led by a wounded president surrounded by hawkish advisers who have identified and prioritised two potential international scapegoats who they have long believed should be the targets of pre-emptive strikes. One is North Korea. but because it has a developed nuclear arsenal and the ability to inflict massive conventional damage on South Korea, the costs of an attack on them are so high that it makes it the less likely victim of a first attack from this new US team.
So that leaves Iran. While a war with Iran or direct strikes against Tehran would be costly, they can’t be ruled out. And in any event, the heightened tensions that seem certain to come may well have consequences for traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the perception of political risk associated with the region. Is this likely to constrain Iran’s behaviour?Achieve the goal of reducing long-term risks better than the JCPOA?
To both questions, the answer is probably not. But we have entered a period in which reason and rationality may not guide outcomes as they have in the past and impulsiveness and external, unrelated pressures may force action where it should not come. And for that reason, the arrival of the new US national security team should be seen as a source of apprehension by all those with interests in the peaceful future of the Middle East.
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
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UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
RESULTS
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Cryopreservation: A timeline
- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
Guide to intelligent investing
Investing success often hinges on discipline and perspective. As markets fluctuate, remember these guiding principles:
- Stay invested: Time in the market, not timing the market, is critical to long-term gains.
- Rational thinking: Breathe and avoid emotional decision-making; let logic and planning guide your actions.
- Strategic patience: Understand why you’re investing and allow time for your strategies to unfold.
Hotel Data Cloud profile
Date started: June 2016
Founders: Gregor Amon and Kevin Czok
Based: Dubai
Sector: Travel Tech
Size: 10 employees
Funding: $350,000 (Dh1.3 million)
Investors: five angel investors (undisclosed except for Amar Shubar)
The specs: 2018 BMW R nineT Scrambler
Price, base / as tested Dh57,000
Engine 1,170cc air/oil-cooled flat twin four-stroke engine
Transmission Six-speed gearbox
Power 110hp) @ 7,750rpm
Torque 116Nm @ 6,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 5.3L / 100km
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Other workplace saving schemes
- The UAE government announced a retirement savings plan for private and free zone sector employees in 2023.
- Dubai’s savings retirement scheme for foreign employees working in the emirate’s government and public sector came into effect in 2022.
- National Bonds unveiled a Golden Pension Scheme in 2022 to help private-sector foreign employees with their financial planning.
- In April 2021, Hayah Insurance unveiled a workplace savings plan to help UAE employees save for their retirement.
- Lunate, an Abu Dhabi-based investment manager, has launched a fund that will allow UAE private companies to offer employees investment returns on end-of-service benefits.
Fixture and table
UAE finals day: Friday, April 13 at Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
- 3pm, UAE Conference: Dubai Tigers v Sharjah Wanderers
- 6.30pm, UAE Premiership: Dubai Exiles v Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Premiership – final standings
- Dubai Exiles
- Abu Dhabi Harlequins
- Jebel Ali Dragons
- Dubai Hurricanes
- Dubai Sports City Eagles
- Abu Dhabi Saracens
Vidaamuyarchi
Director: Magizh Thirumeni
Stars: Ajith Kumar, Arjun Sarja, Trisha Krishnan, Regina Cassandra
Rating: 4/5
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
MATCH INFO
Jersey 147 (20 overs)
UAE 112 (19.2 overs)
Jersey win by 35 runs
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.