It is not just Iran that will suffer from the Trump administration’s decision to increase the sanctions stranglehold on Tehran. The decision by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to end the waiver on those countries still buying oil from Iran is going to have profound implications for a number of Washington’s important allies, as well as adding increased pressure on America’s already strained trading relationship with China.
Announcing the administration’s decision to end the waivers on May 2, Mr Pompeo declared that Washington remained determined to increase the pressure on Iran to end its destabilising influence on the Middle East, as well as its continued support for terrorist groups such as Hezbollah.
“The aim remains simple,” said Mr Pompeo. Washington’s policy was “to deprive the outlaw regime of the funds it has used to destabilise the Middle East for four decades, and incentivise Iran to behave like a normal country.”
Noble intentions indeed. But, by removing the last loophole from what has been described as the most punitive sanctions regime imposed against a rival state in history, Washington is placing itself on a diplomatic collision course with a number of important countries.
Washington’s decision to withdraw from the controversial nuclear deal with Iran that former US President Barack Obama helped to negotiate in 2015 has already caused friction in the transatlantic alliance, with leading European powers such as Britain, France, Germany and Italy both maintaining their commitment to the deal and signalling their determination to continue trading with Iran.
In an attempt to circumvent the threat of punitive measures by the US against European businesses that want to maintain their commercial relationships with the country, the EU is attempting to establish an alternative trading framework, known as a special purpose vehicle, which French officials reported earlier this week was “progressing positively with a view to near completion”.
And European leaders, responding to Mr Pompeo’s announcement, reaffirmed their commitment to continue trading with Iran, as well as maintaining their support for the nuclear deal, a position that is only likely to increase tensions between the US and its European allies.
But, the more immediate challenge, so far as Mr Pompeo’s decision to end the waivers is concerned, will be to deal with the diplomatic fallout from those countries that Washington allowed to continue trading with Iran, but which will now find themselves under pressure to fall in line with Washington’s diktat.
The exemptions allowing a number of countries to continue buying oil from Iran date back to the Trump administration’s decision in November to ratchet up the sanctions regime against Tehran. Waivers were granted to eight countries whose economies were dependent on a steady flow of Iranian oil, until alternative arrangements could be made.
Three of those involved have now managed to formalise new arrangements. However, the other five have not: China, India, Japan, South Korea and Turkey. The prospect of these key states finding themselves subject to punitive measures from the US if they continue buying oil for Iran could seriously affect relations at a point when, for a variety of reasons, the Trump administration can least afford it.
By far the biggest issue for Washington will be managing the response from Beijing.
Trade talks between the US and China are finely poised, as the world’s two largest economies try to hammer out a final deal. Earlier this week, Donald Trump said the negotiations were going well, but progress could falter if Beijing concludes that its future economic prospects will be undermined by Washington’s demand that it ends oil imports from Iran.
American diplomats will also need to be at the top of their game when it comes to handling the fallout from the other countries affected by the ending of the waiver. South Korea is a vital ally in Mr Trump’s effort to end the longstanding crisis over North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme, and Seoul’s continued support for American diplomatic efforts will be even more necessary following North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un’s summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Vladivostok this week.
Maintaining a strong relationship with Japan, meanwhile, is critical for Washington as it tries to contain China’s attempts to expand and deepen its influence in Asia, particularly its claim to control the vital shipping routes through the South China Sea.
Keeping on good terms with India is another key aim of American foreign policy when it is vital to defuse tensions between nuclear-armed New Delhi and Islamabad, while Washington’s relationship with Turkey is central to combating attempts by Isis to regroup, following its defeat in Syria and Iraq by coalition forces.
However, while Washington’s decision to end the waiver on Iranian oil is undoubtedly going to cause difficulties, it is unlikely to result in a change of policy on the part of the Trump administration for the very good reason that all the evidence suggests that the sanctions are working.
Even before the US announced the end of the waiver policy, the latest estimates produced by the International Monetary Fund predict that Iran’s economy will contract by around 6 per cent this year. Inflation has risen significantly in recent months, and Iranian households now have to spend around 50 per cent more on basic commodities compared with the same month last year.
Nor is the hardship confined to Iran. In Lebanon, militia members employed by Hezbollah and other pro-Assad groups have had to endure a fall in wages as Iran struggles to finance its overseas military adventures. Iran’s financial crisis is also limiting its ability to fund and support pro-Tehran militias and political groups in Iraq and elsewhere.
Washington’s sanctions regime, therefore, is having the desired effect on Tehran, which is why the international community should lend its unequivocal support to the Trump administration’s approach, rather than seeking ways to undermine it.
Con Coughlin is the Daily Telegraph’s Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
THREE
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RESULTS
6.30pm UAE 1000 Guineas Trial Conditions (TB) US$100,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winner Final Song, Christophe Soumillon (jockey), Saeed bin Suroor (trainer).
7.05pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (Turf) 1,000m
Winner Almanaara, Dane O’Neill, Doug Watson.
7.40pm Handicap (TB) $175,000 (D) 1,900m
Winner Grand Argentier, Brett Doyle, Doug Watson.
8.15pm Meydan Challenge Listed Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner Major Partnership, Patrick Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor.
8.50pm Dubai Stakes Group 3 (TB) $200,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner Gladiator King, Mickael Barzalona, Satish Seemar.
9.25pm Dubai Racing Club Classic Listed Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 2,410m
Winner Universal Order, Richard Mullen, David Simcock.
Mia Man’s tips for fermentation
- Start with a simple recipe such as yogurt or sauerkraut
- Keep your hands and kitchen tools clean. Sanitize knives, cutting boards, tongs and storage jars with boiling water before you start.
- Mold is bad: the colour pink is a sign of mold. If yogurt turns pink as it ferments, you need to discard it and start again. For kraut, if you remove the top leaves and see any sign of mold, you should discard the batch.
- Always use clean, closed, airtight lids and containers such as mason jars when fermenting yogurt and kraut. Keep the lid closed to prevent insects and contaminants from getting in.
The specs
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Specs
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THE SPECS
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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NATIONAL%20SELECTIONS
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Quick pearls of wisdom
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
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Sheikh Zayed's poem
When it is unveiled at Abu Dhabi Art, the Standing Tall exhibition will appear as an interplay of poetry and art. The 100 scarves are 100 fragments surrounding five, figurative, female sculptures, and both sculptures and scarves are hand-embroidered by a group of refugee women artisans, who used the Palestinian cross-stitch embroidery art of tatreez. Fragments of Sheikh Zayed’s poem Your Love is Ruling My Heart, written in Arabic as a love poem to his nation, are embroidered onto both the sculptures and the scarves. Here is the English translation.
Your love is ruling over my heart
Your love is ruling over my heart, even a mountain can’t bear all of it
Woe for my heart of such a love, if it befell it and made it its home
You came on me like a gleaming sun, you are the cure for my soul of its sickness
Be lenient on me, oh tender one, and have mercy on who because of you is in ruins
You are like the Ajeed Al-reem [leader of the gazelle herd] for my country, the source of all of its knowledge
You waddle even when you stand still, with feet white like the blooming of the dates of the palm
Oh, who wishes to deprive me of sleep, the night has ended and I still have not seen you
You are the cure for my sickness and my support, you dried my throat up let me go and damp it
Help me, oh children of mine, for in his love my life will pass me by.