To properly consider the possible fallout of Friday's targeted US strike on Qassem Suleimani, of Iran's elite Quds Force, disregard the tub-thumping rhetoric from Washington and the ominous rumblings from Tehran. Listen instead for the sound of silences within disparate countries' statements on the situation.
Consider the responses offered by South Asia’s nuclear-armed neighbours, India and Pakistan.
India, which has vital interests in the Middle East, as well as strong relations with both the US and Iran, issued a 55-word statement. It “noted” in five terse sentences “that a senior Iranian leader has been killed by the US”, that “the increase in tension has alarmed the world”, and called for “restraint”. But the blandly stated Indian position significantly omitted two points. It did not criticise Suleimani and his activities using the extreme terms favoured by American officials and it did not specify who had exacerbated tensions.
Pakistan, which has long had key relationships with some of the main players in the Middle East, offered a slightly longer written reaction. It said it “viewed with deep concern the recent developments in the Middle East, which seriously threaten peace and stability in the region”. It stressed the need to respect “sovereignty”, “territorial integrity”, “the UN Charter” and “international law”, advised against “unilateral actions and use of force” and urged “all parties” to exercise “maximum restraint”. Islamabad left two key things unsaid. Unlike New Delhi, it did not directly refer to Suleimani’s death, preferring to use a euphemism instead, and it did not specify who it was reminding of the need to respect international law.
The silences tell an interesting story of intense concentration as India and Pakistan – as well as many other players – ponder their next move on the geopolitical chessboard. In diplomacy, some things are better left unsaid, to quote Lincoln Chafee, the only Republican in the US Senate to vote against the 2002 authorisation of the use of force in Iraq. What might the lack of candour from New Delhi and Islamabad tell us?
First, that the situation is fluid and fast moving and no one is sure quite what to expect. Donald Tusk, who was president of the European Council until November, probably spoke for many world capitals when he bluntly tweeted: "President Trump's decisions provoke global risks and his intentions remain unclear".
There is dismay in Delhi at the prospect of Washington now being preoccupied with Iran and the Middle East rather than with challenging China through the Trump administration's "free and open Indo-Pacific" policy
Indeed, the succession of rapid, often contradictory statements and decisions by the Trump administration in the past few days have left a trail of confusion about US foreign policy strategy and objectives. After the drone attack on Suleimani at Baghdad's international airport, US President Donald Trump claimed the assassination was meant to stop a war rather than to start it. But on Sunday, he tweeted a bellicose warning that Iranian retaliation would result in US attacks on 52 Iranian sites "very fast and very hard". For good measure, Mr Trump indicated that Washington's hostility was rooted in events of 40 years ago, which is to say the 52 Americans taken hostage in Tehran in 1979. This raised questions about the US claim that the action against Suleimani was "preventive". As a leading Indian newspaper editorialised, Tehran's surrounding of the US embassy in Baghdad was "a red line for a president whose generation was scarred by the 1979 hostage crisis".
And despite campaigning for the presidency in 2016 on the promise of bringing home US troops and declaring as recently as October: “Now we're getting out (of the Middle East)... Let someone else fight over this long-bloodstained sand”, Mr Trump has just dispatched 3,500 soldiers – one of the largest rapid deployments in decades – to the region.
But there is a second point to note about India and Pakistan’s statements. Both were carefully worded to allow room for manoeuvre; the equivocation reflecting an attempt to assume a neutral posture as the broader region faces disequilibrium. There is a lot at stake and in very different ways for both countries.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani (R) welcomes Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan in Tehran, Iran in October 2019. Getty Images
India, the world’s third largest consumer of oil, will be concerned about the effects of an escalating crisis on the price and flow of oil. In November, the Middle East accounted for 68 per cent of India’s oil imports, up from 57 per cent the previous month. Sanctions imposed by Mr Trump last January on Venezuelan oil exports have already narrowed India’s options. The second important concern for New Delhi is the roughly 8 million Indian nationals in the Gulf. Any concerns about safety might affect the hefty annual remittances back home of about $40 billion. Oil prices and remittances matter enormously at this point when the Indian economy is under stress.
Third, India is worried about its massive investment in developing the Chabahar port in southeastern Iran, which it sees as a gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia, and a way to bypass Pakistan. On Christmas Eve, Indian foreign minister S Jaishankar was in Iran.
Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif (R) welcomes his Indian counterpart Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in the capital Tehran, on December 22, 2019. Atta Kenare / AFP
With Pakistan stressing, in the aftermath of the Suleimani strike, the need for an Afghan reconciliation process, India will be watching the evolving US-Iran situation and the drawdown of US forces in Afghanistan for any increased role for Pakistan. It is noteworthy that some of the current Indian debates are highlighting questions posed by American experts on Afghanistan and Pakistan about targeting “the Taliban masters in Pakistan” – allegedly, Pakistani generals and the country’s military intelligence agency ISI – in the same manner as Mr Trump dealt with Suleimani.
Finally, India is keen to maintain its relationship with the US, which has of late provided cover at the UN Security Council for its strike across the Line of Control with Pakistan and for changing the constitutional status of Jammu and Kashmir. There is dismay in Delhi at the prospect of Washington now being preoccupied with Iran and the Middle East rather than with challenging China through the Trump administration’s “free and open Indo-Pacific” policy.
Pakistan too is confronted with competing priorities. It has a 909-km border with Iran and the world’s largest Shia population outside of Iran, but also a deep relationship with Saudi Arabia, which provided direct financial aid and morale-boosting assistance in kind at strategic moments. While it bristles at the high-handed unilateralist tone taken by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo after a conversation on Friday with Pakistan's army chief General Qamar Bajwa, Islamabad is anxious not to annoy Washington and to leverage any increase in its perceived utility in Afghanistan.
Truly, silence is one of the languages of diplomacy.
Favourite car: Koenigsegg Agera RS or Renault Trezor concept car.
Favourite book:I Am Pilgrim by Terry Hayes or Red Notice by Bill Browder.
Biggest inspiration: My husband Nik. He really got me through a lot with his positivity.
Favourite holiday destination: Being at home in Australia, as I travel all over the world for work. It’s great to just hang out with my husband and family.
MATCH INFO
Rugby World Cup (all times UAE)
Final: England v South Africa, Saturday, 1pm
Who has lived at The Bishops Avenue?
George Sainsbury of the supermarket dynasty, sugar magnate William Park Lyle and actress Dame Gracie Fields were residents in the 1930s when the street was only known as ‘Millionaires’ Row’.
Then came the international super rich, including the last king of Greece, Constantine II, the Sultan of Brunei and Indian steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal who was at one point ranked the third richest person in the world.
Turkish tycoon Halis Torprak sold his mansion for £50m in 2008 after spending just two days there. The House of Saud sold 10 properties on the road in 2013 for almost £80m.
Other residents have included Iraqi businessman Nemir Kirdar, singer Ariana Grande, holiday camp impresario Sir Billy Butlin, businessman Asil Nadir, Paul McCartney’s former wife Heather Mills.
Hunting park to luxury living
Land was originally the Bishop of London's hunting park, hence the name
The road was laid out in the mid 19th Century, meandering through woodland and farmland
Its earliest houses at the turn of the 20th Century were substantial detached properties with extensive grounds
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
PSL FINAL
Multan Sultans v Peshawar Zalmi
8pm, Thursday
Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,200m
Winner: Shafaf, Sam Hitchcott (jockey), Ahmed Al Mehairbi (trainer) 5,30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,200m
Winner: Noof KB, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel 6pm: The President’s Cup Listed (TB) Dh380,000 1,400m
Winner: Taamol, Jim Crowley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe 6.30pm: The President’s Cup Group One (PA) Dh2,500,000 2,200m
Winner: Rmmas, Tadhg O’Shea, Jean de Roualle 7pm: Arabian Triple Crown Listed (PA) Dh230,000 1,600m
Winner: Ihtesham, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami 7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner: AF Mekhbat, Antonio Fresu, Ernst Oertel
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
The biog
Prefers vegetables and fish to meat and would choose salad over pizza
Walks daily as part of regular exercise routine
France is her favourite country to visit
Has written books and manuals on women’s education, first aid and health for the family
Family: Husband, three sons and a daughter
Fathiya Nadhari's instructions to her children was to give back to the country
The children worked as young volunteers in social, education and health campaigns
Her motto is to never stop working for the country
What is a calorie?
A food calorie, or kilocalorie, is a measure of nutritional energy generated from what is consumed.
One calorie, is the amount of heat needed to raise the temperature of 1 kilogram of water by 1°C.
A kilocalorie represents a 1,000 true calories of energy.
Energy density figures are often quoted as calories per serving, with one gram of fat in food containing nine calories, and a gram of protein or carbohydrate providing about four.
Investors: Technology Development Fund, Silicon Badia, Beco Capital, Vostok New Ventures, Endeavour Catalyst, Crescent Enterprises’ CE-Ventures, Saudi Technology Ventures and IFC
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
World Series: South Africa Women’s World Series: Australia Gulf Men’s League: Dubai Exiles Gulf Men’s Social: Mediclinic Barrelhouse Warriors Gulf Vets: Jebel Ali Dragons Veterans Gulf Women: Dubai Sports City Eagles Gulf Under 19: British School Al Khubairat Gulf Under 19 Girls: Dubai Exiles UAE National Schools: Al Safa School International Invitational: Speranza 22 International Vets: Joining Jack
The biog
Alwyn Stephen says much of his success is a result of taking an educated chance on business decisions.
His advice to anyone starting out in business is to have no fear as life is about taking on challenges.
“If you have the ambition and dream of something, follow that dream, be positive, determined and set goals.
"Nothing and no-one can stop you from succeeding with the right work application, and a little bit of luck along the way.”
Mr Stephen sells his luxury fragrances at selected perfumeries around the UAE, including the House of Niche Boutique in Al Seef.
He relaxes by spending time with his family at home, and enjoying his wife’s India cooking.
Results
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,000mm, Winners: Mumayaza, Fabrice Veron (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer)
5.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m, Winners: Sharkh, Pat Cosgrave, Helal Al Alawi
6pm: The President’s Cup Prep - Conditions (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 2,200m, Winner: Somoud, Richard Mullen, Jean de Roualle
6.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh90,000 (T) 1,600m, Winner: Harrab, Ryan Curatolo, Jean de Roualle
7pm: Abu Dhabi Equestrian Gold Cup - Prestige (PA) Dh125,000 (T) 1,600m, Winner: Hameem, Adrie de Vries, Abdallah Al Hammadi
7.30pm: Al Ruwais – Group 3 (PA) Dh300,000 (T) 1,200m, Winner: AF Alwajel, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
8pm: Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m, Winner: Nibras Passion, Bernardo Pinheiro, Ismail Mohammed
Tesalam Aleik
Abdullah Al Ruwaished
(Rotana)
Petrarch: Everywhere a Wanderer
Christopher Celenza,
Reaktion Books
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11 What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time. TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
Teams in the EHL
White Bears, Al Ain Theebs, Dubai Mighty Camels, Abu Dhabi Storms, Abu Dhabi Scorpions and Vipers
