EU and Vietnamese flags are seen during the signing ceremony of a trade agreement in Hanoi last year. On Monday, the deal was ratified by the Vietnam National Assembly. Reuters
EU and Vietnamese flags are seen during the signing ceremony of a trade agreement in Hanoi last year. On Monday, the deal was ratified by the Vietnam National Assembly. Reuters
EU and Vietnamese flags are seen during the signing ceremony of a trade agreement in Hanoi last year. On Monday, the deal was ratified by the Vietnam National Assembly. Reuters
Until recently, globalisation looked unstoppable and was generally thought to have worked best for the East. A 2016 paper produced by the Brookings Institution, the American think tank, was titled simply: Globalisation: What the West can learn from Asia. As it put it, "worldwide investment flows, knowledge exchanges, and rapid economic growth" have led to the emergence of large middle classes and brought hundreds of millions on the continent out of poverty. The formula has been a success. Who wouldn't want to continue down the same route.
Today, however, trade and connectivity in Asia appear to many to be fracturing and faltering. The US-China trade war has been damaging for everyone, and America has a President who cannot be trusted not to escalate it on a whim. Country after country has, overtly or covertly, decided that they are far too reliant on China, either for their supply chains, production lines or essential products, such as medicines. That, coupled with the resurgent nationalists who emphasise self-reliance as a good in itself that overrides any concerns about efficiencies or competitive advantages, is bound to lead to a further reduction in international commerce.
The much-vaunted Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) that would have represented 40 per cent of global GDP and one third of world trade may not have actually collapsed, even though Donald Trump withdrew the US from the agreement in one of the first acts of his Presidency. But it has now been reduced to the – rather wordy – Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP); it covers less than 14 per cent of the global economy; and out of 11 signatories, only seven have ratified it so far.
A gift shop salesperson sets cardboards depicting US President Donald Trump, left, and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Moscow. EPA
The other great regional trade pact, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), includes China – unlike the TPP, which some thought was designed specifically to exclude it. It has been on the verge of being signed for at least two years. It is still expected to be agreed later this year, but the parties have managed to lose India along the way, which means that instead of accounting for around 50 per cent of the world's population and 40 per cent of global GDP, it will cover about 30 per cent of each.
A notable infrastructure project – the high-speed rail link between Singapore and Kuala Lumpur –has been put on hold by the Malaysian government, while The Economist – never a friend to China's leadership – was mean-spirited in its reporting this week on the state of President Xi Jinping's signature global infrastructure and development Belt and Road Initiative. "BRI projects are stalling as countries struggle to repay related debts," the magazine declared. "China's own economy is faltering, too. Silk roads are getting bumpier."
Added together, the above may appear to compose a rather gloomy picture. It is, however, more complex than that.
Narendra Modi's India is staying away from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership – for now. Reuters
The 15 countries in RCEP – the 10-member Association of South-East Asian Nations, plus China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand – have been aggressively courting India to return to negotiations.
The Democratic presidential candidate, Joe Biden, urged support for the TPP when he was Barack Obama’s vice president, and would – subject to conditions – like the US to join the CPTPP. British Conservative politicians have long expressed interest in doing so (Britain “counts” as a Pacific country because a UK Overseas Territory, the Pitcairn Islands, is located there). Thailand is currently considering whether to become a member. The Chinese Premier Li Keqiang recently said that his country “has a positive and open attitude toward joining the CPTPP”. This was a formulation that regional media interpreted as a statement of serious intent, raising the possibility of a remarkable reversal, or at least easing, of the current animosity between Washington and Beijing should both eventually become parties to the agreement.
Many countries have decided that they are far too reliant on China, either for their supply chains, production lines or essential products. AP Photo
The issue is what kind of world Asian countries want to return to post-Covid-19. It cannot, and should not, be the same at least in terms of our attitude towards the environment
As for the BRI, The Economist concedes that "fortunately for China's propagandists, the BRI is a shape-shifting concept that allows them to adapt it to changing circumstances", including prioritising health and digital assistance, pausing certain projects and placing more emphasis on renewables. The snark is unnecessary. You do not have to be a "propagandist" to see that its elasticity is one of its strengths – why should it be absolutely rigid? – and is entirely appropriate to its global ambition given that more than 125 countries have signed co-operation documents with the initiative.
Meanwhile on Monday, Vietnam ratified a free trade agreement with the European Union that will cut or eliminate 99 per cent of tariffs on goods traded between the south-east Asian country and the world's largest trading bloc.
With the party of Najib Razak, Malaysia's former prime minister, back in the ruling coalition, one of his signature projects could see the light of day again. Bloomberg
Lastly, the Singapore-Kuala Lumpur rail project fell out of favour after the government of the then Malaysian prime minister Najib Razak lost the 2018 general election. Almost anything or anyone associated with him became politically toxic. Now that Mr Najib's party is once again part of the ruling coalition, it will be looked on more kindly.
More broadly, the issue is what kind of world Asian countries want to return to post-Covid-19. It cannot, and should not, be the same at least in terms of our attitude towards the environment, if only because we will want to reduce the risk of other viruses making the jump from animals to humans. Most countries will aim to increase by some degree their economic self-sufficiency and will be wary of returning to cross-border just-in-time supply chains.
Joe Biden, The Democratic presidential candidate, would – subject to conditions – like the US to join the CPTPP. EPA
But will it be a world in which one could aim to have breakfast in Kuala Lumpur, lunch in Singapore and be back in the Malaysian capital in time for dinner, as Mr Najib used to say when extolling the rail project? If the alternative is extreme economic nationalism – bolstering onshore production, putting up barriers to foreign investment and shortening supply chains to the point that they avoid crossing borders – then "that's the North Korean model of eliminating risk in international economic engagement", as Australia National University's Shiro Armstrong wrote in East Asia Forum Quarterly recently.
It is surely obvious which model most would prefer. We see disintegration and hear confrontational talk at the moment. But as I have outlined above, there are reasons for hoping for a time when the British novelist EM Forster’s exhortation becomes our watchword once again: “Only connect”.
Sholto Byrnes is a commentator and consultant in Kuala Lumpur and a corresponding fellow of the Erasmus Forum
There are numerous success stories of teen businesses that were created in college dorm rooms and other modest circumstances. Below are some of the most recognisable names in the industry:
Facebook: Mark Zuckerberg and his friends started Facebook when he was a 19-year-old Harvard undergraduate.
Dell: When Michael Dell was an undergraduate student at Texas University in 1984, he started upgrading computers for profit. He starting working full-time on his business when he was 19. Eventually, his company became the Dell Computer Corporation and then Dell Inc.
Subway: Fred DeLuca opened the first Subway restaurant when he was 17. In 1965, Mr DeLuca needed extra money for college, so he decided to open his own business. Peter Buck, a family friend, lent him $1,000 and together, they opened Pete’s Super Submarines. A few years later, the company was rebranded and called Subway.
Mashable: In 2005, Pete Cashmore created Mashable in Scotland when he was a teenager. The site was then a technology blog. Over the next few decades, Mr Cashmore has turned Mashable into a global media company.
Oculus VR: Palmer Luckey founded Oculus VR in June 2012, when he was 19. In August that year, Oculus launched its Kickstarter campaign and raised more than $1 million in three days. Facebook bought Oculus for $2 billion two years later.
Sept 20: Bangladesh v Afghanistan (Abu Dhabi) Super Four
Sept 21: Group A Winner v Group B Runner-up (Dubai)
Sept 21: Group B Winner v Group A Runner-up (Abu Dhabi)
Sept 23: Group A Winner v Group A Runner-up (Dubai)
Sept 23: Group B Winner v Group B Runner-up (Abu Dhabi)
Sept 25: Group A Winner v Group B Winner (Dubai)
Sept 26: Group A Runner-up v Group B Runner-up (Abu Dhabi)
Sept 28: Final (Dubai)
Company Profile
Name: JustClean
Based: Kuwait with offices in other GCC countries
Launch year: 2016
Number of employees: 130
Sector: online laundry service
Funding: $12.9m from Kuwait-based Faith Capital Holding
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Muslim Council of Elders condemns terrorism on religious sites
The Muslim Council of Elders has strongly condemned the criminal attacks on religious sites in Britain.
It firmly rejected “acts of terrorism, which constitute a flagrant violation of the sanctity of houses of worship”.
“Attacking places of worship is a form of terrorism and extremism that threatens peace and stability within societies,” it said.
The council also warned against the rise of hate speech, racism, extremism and Islamophobia. It urged the international community to join efforts to promote tolerance and peaceful coexistence.
Other acts on the Jazz Garden bill
Sharrie Williams
The American singer is hugely respected in blues circles due to her passionate vocals and songwriting. Born and raised in Michigan, Williams began recording and touring as a teenage gospel singer. Her career took off with the blues band The Wiseguys. Such was the acclaim of their live shows that they toured throughout Europe and in Africa. As a solo artist, Williams has also collaborated with the likes of the late Dizzy Gillespie, Van Morrison and Mavis Staples. Lin Rountree
An accomplished smooth jazz artist who blends his chilled approach with R‘n’B. Trained at the Duke Ellington School of the Arts in Washington, DC, Rountree formed his own band in 2004. He has also recorded with the likes of Kem, Dwele and Conya Doss. He comes to Dubai on the back of his new single Pass The Groove, from his forthcoming 2018 album Stronger Still, which may follow his five previous solo albums in cracking the top 10 of the US jazz charts. Anita Williams
Dubai-based singer Anita Williams will open the night with a set of covers and swing, jazz and blues standards that made her an in-demand singer across the emirate. The Irish singer has been performing in Dubai since 2008 at venues such as MusicHall and Voda Bar. Her Jazz Garden appearance is career highlight as she will use the event to perform the original song Big Blue Eyes, the single from her debut solo album, due for release soon.
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
Scores
Rajasthan Royals 160-8 (20 ov)
Kolkata Knight Riders 163-3 (18.5 ov)
The candidates
Dr Ayham Ammora, scientist and business executive
Ali Azeem, business leader
Tony Booth, professor of education
Lord Browne, former BP chief executive
Dr Mohamed El-Erian, economist
Professor Wyn Evans, astrophysicist
Dr Mark Mann, scientist
Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner
Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister
Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
The Birkin bag is made by Hermès.
It is named after actress and singer Jane Birkin
Noone from Hermès will go on record to say how much a new Birkin costs, how long one would have to wait to get one, and how many bags are actually made each year.
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
Buyers should try to pay as much in cash as possible for a property, limiting the mortgage value to as little as they can afford. This means they not only pay less in interest but their monthly costs are also reduced. Ideally, the monthly mortgage payment should not exceed 20 per cent of the purchaser’s total household income, says Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching.
“If it’s a rental property, plan for the property to have periods when it does not have a tenant. Ensure you have enough cash set aside to pay the mortgage and other costs during these periods, ideally at least six months,” she says.
Also, shop around for the best mortgage interest rate. Understand the terms and conditions, especially what happens after any introductory periods, Ms Glynn adds.
Using a good mortgage broker is worth the investment to obtain the best rate available for a buyer’s needs and circumstances. A good mortgage broker will help the buyer understand the terms and conditions of the mortgage and make the purchasing process efficient and easier.
Egypt’s Copts belong to one of the world’s oldest Christian communities, with Mark the Evangelist credited with founding their church around 300 AD. Orthodox Christians account for the overwhelming majority of Christians in Egypt, with the rest mainly made up of Greek Orthodox, Catholics and Anglicans.
The community accounts for some 10 per cent of Egypt’s 100 million people, with the largest concentrations of Christians found in Cairo, Alexandria and the provinces of Minya and Assiut south of Cairo.
Egypt’s Christians have had a somewhat turbulent history in the Muslim majority Arab nation, with the community occasionally suffering outright persecution but generally living in peace with their Muslim compatriots. But radical Muslims who have first emerged in the 1970s have whipped up anti-Christian sentiments, something that has, in turn, led to an upsurge in attacks against their places of worship, church-linked facilities as well as their businesses and homes.
More recently, ISIS has vowed to go after the Christians, claiming responsibility for a series of attacks against churches packed with worshippers starting December 2016.
The discrimination many Christians complain about and the shift towards religious conservatism by many Egyptian Muslims over the last 50 years have forced hundreds of thousands of Christians to migrate, starting new lives in growing communities in places as far afield as Australia, Canada and the United States.
Here is a look at major attacks against Egypt's Coptic Christians in recent years:
November 2: Masked gunmen riding pickup trucks opened fire on three buses carrying pilgrims to the remote desert monastery of St. Samuel the Confessor south of Cairo, killing 7 and wounding about 20. IS claimed responsibility for the attack.
May 26, 2017: Masked militants riding in three all-terrain cars open fire on a bus carrying pilgrims on their way to the Monastery of St. Samuel the Confessor, killing 29 and wounding 22. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack.
April 2017: Twin attacks by suicide bombers hit churches in the coastal city of Alexandria and the Nile Delta city of Tanta. At least 43 people are killed and scores of worshippers injured in the Palm Sunday attack, which narrowly missed a ceremony presided over by Pope Tawadros II, spiritual leader of Egypt Orthodox Copts, in Alexandria's St. Mark's Cathedral. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attacks.
February 2017: Hundreds of Egyptian Christians flee their homes in the northern part of the Sinai Peninsula, fearing attacks by ISIS. The group's North Sinai affiliate had killed at least seven Coptic Christians in the restive peninsula in less than a month.
December 2016: A bombing at a chapel adjacent to Egypt's main Coptic Christian cathedral in Cairo kills 30 people and wounds dozens during Sunday Mass in one of the deadliest attacks carried out against the religious minority in recent memory. ISIS claimed responsibility.
July 2016: Pope Tawadros II says that since 2013 there were 37 sectarian attacks on Christians in Egypt, nearly one incident a month. A Muslim mob stabs to death a 27-year-old Coptic Christian man, Fam Khalaf, in the central city of Minya over a personal feud.
May 2016: A Muslim mob ransacks and torches seven Christian homes in Minya after rumours spread that a Christian man had an affair with a Muslim woman. The elderly mother of the Christian man was stripped naked and dragged through a street by the mob.
New Year's Eve 2011: A bomb explodes in a Coptic Christian church in Alexandria as worshippers leave after a midnight mass, killing more than 20 people.
The biog
Favourite film: The Notebook
Favourite book: What I know for sure by Oprah Winfrey
Favourite quote: “Social equality is the only basis of human happiness” Nelson Madela. Hometown: Emmen, The Netherlands
Favourite activities: Walking on the beach, eating at restaurants and spending time with friends
Job: Founder and Managing Director of Mawaheb from Beautiful Peopl
