Girls in black uniforms hold up an image mosaic of Ayatollah Khomeini made up of individual boards in Azadi Stadium, Tehran, in 1999. Getty Images
Girls in black uniforms hold up an image mosaic of Ayatollah Khomeini made up of individual boards in Azadi Stadium, Tehran, in 1999. Getty Images
Girls in black uniforms hold up an image mosaic of Ayatollah Khomeini made up of individual boards in Azadi Stadium, Tehran, in 1999. Getty Images
Girls in black uniforms hold up an image mosaic of Ayatollah Khomeini made up of individual boards in Azadi Stadium, Tehran, in 1999. Getty Images

Against Iran, the US needs to reactivate its Cold War strategy


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Since the so-called "Islamic revolution" of 1979, the problem of Iran has bedevilled every US president. Joe Biden is no exception. The challenge intensified following the 2003 US invasion of Iraq. But at no point in the past two decades has the US developed a viable long-term strategy for dealing with Iran.

Mr Biden has placed Iran at the top of his international priorities. That gives him the opportunity to craft a strategy that learns lessons from his predecessors' successes and failures. Most importantly, he could establish a broad framework that avoids fragmented or contradictory partial solutions and that bequeaths coherence to his own successors.

A persistent lack of coherence has been central to his predecessor's failures.

Although George W Bush reviled the Iranian regime as part of an "axis of evil", he greatly strengthened Tehran by, among other things, invading Iraq, leaving the country shattered and largely dominated by Iranian proxies.

The 2015 nuclear deal was Barack Obama's signature foreign policy achievement but it was both flawed and limited. The agreement merely postponed a reckoning over Iran's nuclear ambitions for about a decade and resolved nothing. It also left Iran's other destabilising policies, particularly its support for a network of sectarian armed gangs in neighbouring Arab countries, completely unaddressed.

If anyone in the Obama administration was hoping that the sanctions relief and international legitimacy provided by the nuclear deal would moderate Tehran's behaviour, they were deeply disappointed.

Donald Trump promptly charged in the opposite direction, walking away from the agreement in 2018 and imposing a thoroughgoing regime of "maximum pressure" sanctions. But while the sanctions created significant economic hardship for Iran, Tehran's regional behaviour became more belligerent than ever.

Because reality is complex, it isn't automatically true that Iranian setbacks translate into American successes. Indeed, Mr Trump found no formula for achieving anything through the considerable pressure and leverage he accumulated.

Mr Biden inherits this legacy of profound confusion on one of his key priorities.

He clearly wants to revive nuclear diplomacy and even the 2015 agreement, but insists important lessons were learned from the failures and eventual collapse of the Obama approach.

The good news is that the Biden administration isn’t rushing into anything, and may even be dawdling a little.

The bad news is that senior administration officials may be so fixated on preventing Iran from going nuclear that some appear to think that this is the only really serious problem confronting Washington in the Middle East and that everything else is relatively minor.

Yet a single-minded fixation on reviving or even "fixing" the deal would trap Washington in the same fragmentary and contradictory framework responsible for 20 years of failure.

Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, left, with then US secretary of state John Kerry, right, in Vienna in 2014. The 2015 nuclear deal, known as JCPOA, was flawed and limited. Reuters
Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, left, with then US secretary of state John Kerry, right, in Vienna in 2014. The 2015 nuclear deal, known as JCPOA, was flawed and limited. Reuters

In an important new essay, Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace suggests a modified version of the "containment" policy the US deployed towards the Soviet Union and its network of allies to provide a rational, unifying structure to the US approach towards Iran over the long run.

Shifting to such a "Cold War" model begins by recognising that a meaningful rapprochement between Washington and an unreconstructed Islamic Republic is simply impossible. Opposition to the US is hardwired into the core identity of this regime.

Expecting anything else is naive.

Such a radical transformation in Iran's worldview and policies towards the US and the rest of the Middle East would surely signal the end of the Islamic Republic as it has existed since 1979. Whether such a change is viewed as revolutionary, imposed on the state from outside the regime, or evolutionary, with existing structures taking the lead in such a shift, is irrelevant semantics. The resulting reality would be the same and utterly transformational.

George W Bush stands with Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter in the Oval Office of the White House in 2009. Successive US presidents have got their Iran strategy wrong. AFP
George W Bush stands with Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter in the Oval Office of the White House in 2009. Successive US presidents have got their Iran strategy wrong. AFP
Obama hoped JCPOA would encourage evolutionary change. It didn't. Trump hoped 'maximum pressure' would result in regime collapse. Not even close

Therefore, two key realities must be simultaneously acknowledged.

First, such a transformation must be the long-term goal of the US and its allies, because real reconciliation with this regime as it stands is not possible. But, second, such a change, no matter how vital, cannot be imposed from the outside.

The Obama administration appeared to be hoping that the nuclear agreement would strengthen "moderates" and encourage evolutionary change. It didn't. The Trump administration seemed to be hoping "maximum pressure" would result in regime collapse. Not even close.

Neither aspiration was realistic, and the resulting policies were at least somewhat misguided and ultimately ineffective.

The containment framework Sadjadpour suggests would, drawing on the US' broadly successful Cold War policies towards the Soviet Union, have three main prongs. It would seek to bolster US allies; undermine Iran's own network of support; and use both carrots and sticks to influence Tehran's policies. Its purpose would, eventually, be to provide a framework for fundamental, but domestically driven, change inside Iran.

Mr Biden's goal of an early return to the nuclear agreement fits nicely into this framework, as long as it's not an end in itself. So might a far broader diplomatic engagement with Iran if possible.

But the US would have to take care to strengthen ties to its own regional allies, all of which have a stake in keeping Iran non-nuclear.

Also indispensable would be major efforts to combat and fragment Iran's regional network of violent gangs, primarily by strengthening the dilapidated Arab state structures that Iran's militia proxies prey upon.

This approach also requires the careful reconceptualisation of both sanctions and engagement with Iran, all carefully tailored to promote Iranian civil society and turn social, political and nationalist aspirations against the regime itself.

US President Joe Biden has an opportunity to reset US strategy vis-a-vis Iran. AFP
US President Joe Biden has an opportunity to reset US strategy vis-a-vis Iran. AFP

The keys would be persistence, patience and the understanding that Iranians will only change their system when they are ready and on their own terms. Clearly there's already a great deal to work with in Iranian society, but that can only be done with subtlety and a clear vision.

Such a framework can provide coherence and flexibility, allowing what might otherwise be contradictory impulses and policies to become mutually reinforcing.

Without a guiding strategic concept, based on the largely successful American approach to a far more challenging and dangerous Soviet adversary, Washington is likely to continue to stumble from one miscalculation and missed opportunity to another.

Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States ­Institute and a US affairs columnist for The National

Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The%20Beekeeper
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The low down on MPS

What is myofascial pain syndrome?

Myofascial pain syndrome refers to pain and inflammation in the body’s soft tissue. MPS is a chronic condition that affects the fascia (­connective tissue that covers the muscles, which develops knots, also known as trigger points).

What are trigger points?

Trigger points are irritable knots in the soft ­tissue that covers muscle tissue. Through injury or overuse, muscle fibres contract as a reactive and protective measure, creating tension in the form of hard and, palpable nodules. Overuse and ­sustained posture are the main culprits in developing ­trigger points.

What is myofascial or trigger-point release?

Releasing these nodules requires a hands-on technique that involves applying gentle ­sustained pressure to release muscular shortness and tightness. This eliminates restrictions in ­connective tissue in orderto restore motion and alleviate pain. ­Therapy balls have proven effective at causing enough commotion in the tissue, prompting the release of these hard knots.

ESSENTIALS

The flights

Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.

The hotels

Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.

The tours

A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages. 

'The Sky is Everywhere'

Director:Josephine Decker

Stars:Grace Kaufman, Pico Alexander, Jacques Colimon

Rating:2/5

57%20Seconds
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Signs%20of%20%20%20%20%20%20%20heat%20stroke
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While you're here
RESULTS

2.30pm Jaguar I-Pace – Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 (Dirt)
1,600m 

Winner Namrood, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Musabah Al Muhairi
(trainer) 

3.05pm Land Rover Defender – Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (D)
1,400m 

Winner Shadzadi, Tadhg O’Shea, Bhupat Seemar 

3.40pm Jaguar F-Type – Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (Turf) 1,600m 

Winner Tahdeed, Fernando Jara, Nicholas Bachalard 

4.15pm New Range Rover – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,400m 

Winner Shanty Star, Richard Mullen, Rashed Bouresly 

4.50pm Land Rover – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 2,400m 

Winner Autumn Pride, Bernardo Pinheiro, Helal Al Alawi 

5.25pm Al Tayer Motor – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000  T) 1,000m 

Winner Dahawi, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi 

6pm Jaguar F-Pace SVR – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,600m 

Winner Scabbard, Sam Hitchcock, Doug Watson  

Did you know?

Brunch has been around, is some form or another, for more than a century. The word was first mentioned in print in an 1895 edition of Hunter’s Weekly, after making the rounds among university students in Britain. The article, entitled Brunch: A Plea, argued the case for a later, more sociable weekend meal. “By eliminating the need to get up early on Sunday, brunch would make life brighter for Saturday night carousers. It would promote human happiness in other ways as well,” the piece read. “It is talk-compelling. It puts you in a good temper, it makes you satisfied with yourself and your fellow beings, it sweeps away the worries and cobwebs of the week.” More than 100 years later, author Guy Beringer’s words still ring true, especially in the UAE, where brunches are often used to mark special, sociable occasions.

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
MATCH INFO

Everton 2 (Tosun 9', Doucoure 93')

Rotherham United 1 (Olosunde 56')

Man of the Match Olosunde  (Rotherham)

The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Power: 510hp at 9,000rpm
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Price: From Dh801,800
Scoreline

UAE 2-1 Saudi Arabia

UAE Mabkhout 21’, Khalil 59’

Saudi Al Abed (pen) 20’

Man of the match Ahmed Khalil (UAE)

Defence review at a glance

• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”

• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems

• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.

• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%

• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade

• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels

THE BIO

Family: I have three siblings, one older brother (age 25) and two younger sisters, 20 and 13 

Favourite book: Asking for my favourite book has to be one of the hardest questions. However a current favourite would be Sidewalk by Mitchell Duneier

Favourite place to travel to: Any walkable city. I also love nature and wildlife 

What do you love eating or cooking: I’m constantly in the kitchen. Ever since I changed the way I eat I enjoy choosing and creating what goes into my body. However, nothing can top home cooked food from my parents. 

Favorite place to go in the UAE: A quiet beach.

What is the Supreme Petroleum Council?

The Abu Dhabi Supreme Petroleum Council was established in 1988 and is the highest governing body in Abu Dhabi’s oil and gas industry. The council formulates, oversees and executes the emirate’s petroleum-related policies. It also approves the allocation of capital spending across state-owned Adnoc’s upstream, downstream and midstream operations and functions as the company’s board of directors. The SPC’s mandate is also required for auctioning oil and gas concessions in Abu Dhabi and for awarding blocks to international oil companies. The council is chaired by Sheikh Khalifa, the President and Ruler of Abu Dhabi while Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, is the vice chairman.

The%20specs
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