There will be a lot on the plate for the leaders of the Gulf Co-operation Council when they meet in Al Ula, Saudi Arabia, for the 41st GCC Summit on Tuesday. Relations with Iran, Turkey and Israel, relations between GCC member states, the future of Palestine and Gulf-Arab unity will be some of the talking points likely to dominate the summit.
An important topic of discussion will be Gulf-Arab unity, which has on several occasions experienced headwinds, whether it was over relations with Iran amid its regime’s bid to expand its military footprint in Arab countries, or relations with Turkey amid its own expansionist project – in tandem with the Muslim Brotherhood – in the Arab world.
Gulf relations with the US, whether they are bilateral or multilateral, are far from contentious. But there is some ambiguity over the intentions of the incoming administration of President-elect Joe Biden – especially pertaining to the nuclear deal that America and other global powers signed with Tehran in 2015 but which President Donald Trump, the current incumbent, withdrew from in 2018. Key members of the Biden team are keen to revive the deal, which would translate to their dropping of sanctions against Iran. This would, in turn, unlock the funds necessary for the regime to expand its destabilising operations across the Middle East.
President-elect Joe Biden is likely to revive US-Iran relations. AP Photo
In such a scenario, the rest of the Arab world would be keen to see if the six GCC members states finalise a strategy on how to approach the Iran issue – which they must then put forward to the Biden administration as it comes to power on January 20.
The summit in Al Ula will be the first since the UAE and Bahrain signed the Abraham Accords with Israel. Today, Israel has either normalised relations or signed peace accords with several Arab countries, including Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Sudan and the UAE. More countries are expected to follow.
It remains to be seen what impact this will have on the future of Palestine and ordinary Palestinians’ desire for statehood. In any case, the GCC member states will be expected to hold Israel to account and pressure its government not to proceed with its plans to annex parts of West Bank and Jordan Valley.
The summit will most certainly issue a position affirming the principles of the Arab Peace Initiative, drawn up by Saudi Arabia in 2002, in which Arab nations offered Israel normalised ties in return for a statehood deal with the Palestinians and full Israeli withdrawal from territory captured in 1967. However, the summit should also include the new framework – of continued normalisation and positive Gulf-Israeli relations – in effect recognising the leverage member states now have over Israel.
The incoming Biden administration will not walk back any of the Trump administration’s achievements, particularly its contribution to warming Gulf-Israeli relations, as Israel’s security and legitimacy remain important domestic issues in the US. However, while some in the Biden team view the process of Gulf-Israeli ties independent of the Iranian question, there are those who might consider them to be obstacles as Mr Biden seeks a return to dialogue with Tehran.
Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Co-operation, speaks to Donald Trump, US president at the time, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office in September 2020. Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Co-operation
Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Co-operation, meets Mike Pompeo, US secretary of state at the time. Wam
Sheikh Abdullah and Mr Pompeo in Washington. Wam
Sheikh Abdullah visits Washington in September last year. Wam
Sheikh Abdullah, UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Co-operation, US President Donald Trump, centre, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sign the Abraham Accord at the White House South Lawn. MOFAIC
Sheikh Abdullah and, from left, Bahrain's Foreign Minister Abdullatif Al Zayani, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump at the White House. MOFAIC
Sheikh Abdullah, Mr Al Zayani and Mr Netanyahu at the White House during the Abraham Accord signing ceremony. MOFAIC
Sheikh Abdullah and, from left, Mr Netanyahu, Mr Trump and Mr Al Zayani wave from the Truman Balcony at the White House. AFP
Sheikh Abdullah and, from left, Mr Al Zayani, Mr Netanyahu and Mr Trump sign the Abraham Accord. AFP
Sheikh Abdullah and, from left, Mr Al Zayani, Mr Netanyahu and Mr Trump after the signing ceremony. AFP
Sheikh Abdullah and, from left, Mr Al Zayani, Mr Netanyahu and Mr Trump after the signing ceremony. AFP
Sheikh Abdullah speaks from the Truman Balcony at the White House during the signing ceremony of the Abraham Accord. AFP
Sheikh Abdullah speaks as Mr Trump looks on before the signing of Abraham Accord on the South Lawn of the White House. AP
Sheikh Abdullah looks on from the White House as Mr Trump speaks at the Abraham Accord signing ceremony, also attended by Mr Al Zayani and Mr Netanyahu. AP
Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Co-operation, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, left, and Bahraini Foreign Minister Abdullatif Al Zayani stand on the Blue Room Balcony during the signing ceremony. AP
Sheikh Abdullah and Mr Al Zayani shortly before participating in the signing of the Abraham Accord. AFP
Sheikh Abdullah, with Mr Netanyahu, left, and Mr Al Zayani at the signing of the Abraham Accord on the South Lawn of the White House. AFP
US President Donald Trump speaks from the Truman Balcony at the White House during the signing ceremony of the Abraham Accord. AFP
President Donald Trump walks to the Abraham Accord signing ceremony at the White House with Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Co-operation, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Bahrain's Foreign Minister Abdullatif Al Zayani. AP
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo arrives at the White House to attend the Abraham Accord signing ceremony hosted by President Donald Trump. EPA
Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Co-operation, meets US President Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House before the signing of Abraham Accord. AFP
Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Co-operation, in the Oval Office. AFP
Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Co-operation, meets US President Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House. AFP
Sheikh Abdullah with Mr Trump in the Oval Office. AFP
Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Co-operation, with by President Donald Trump at the White House. Mustafa Alrawi / The National
The UAE delegation led by Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Co-operation, with US President Donald Trump at the White House. Mustafa Alrawi / The National
Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Co-operation, is welcomed to the White House by US President Donald Trump. EPA
Sheikh Abdullah and Mr Trump outside the White House. AFP
Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed speaks to Mr Trump after arriving at the White House. Reuters
White House Senior Adviser Jared Kushner walks away following a television interview on the North Lawn at the White House in Washington. Reuters
US President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump welcome the arrival of Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife Sara on the North Lawn of the White House in Washington DC. AFP
A delegation of senior UAE officials led by Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Co-operation, prepares to depart for the White House to sign the Abraham Accord. MOFAIC
US President Donald Trump welcomes Bahraini Foreign Minister Abdullatif Al Zayani. AFP
Bahraini Foreign Minister Abdullatif Al Zayani arrives at the White House in Washington DC. AFP
US President Donald Trump welcomes Bahraini Foreign Minister Abdullatif Al Zayani on the North Lawn of the White House in Washington, DC. AFP
Preparations at the White House for the signing of the Abraham Accord.
Preparations under way at the White House for the signing of the Abraham Accord.
Preparations under way at the White House for the signing of the Abraham Accord.
Preparation at the White House for the signing of the Abraham Accord. The National
It does not have to be the case. That being said, the summit must oppose the two-track approach that Mr Biden has suggested he intends to follow to repair relations: first renegotiate the nuclear deal and then confront Tehran about its malign behaviour in the Middle East. This could be a problematic approach because once sanctions – even if only a few of them – are lifted following renegotiation of the nuclear deal, that would give Tehran free rein to resume its destabilising activities and manufacturing of ballistic missiles.
The summit will be held amid an important development that is slowly unfolding in the US.
This week, two elections in the state of Georgia will determine the composition of the US Senate. If the Biden-led Democratic Party wins both seats, the new president will have enough legroom to govern as he pleases, for the most part. If the Trump-led Republican Party retains control of the Senate, it will impose checks and balances on key Biden initiatives, particularly in the foreign policy domain.
Iranian general Qassem Suleimani, centre, was killed in a US drone strike on January 3, 2020, leading to greater tensions between Iraq's government and pro-Iran Iraqi militias. AFP / KHAMENEI.IR
Iran’s leaders will surely be worried about the second outcome, as Mr Biden will find it more challenging to reset Washington-Tehran relations and, more importantly for Tehran, lift sanctions against it.
The regime, meanwhile, fears military attacks from the Trump administration during the transition period, possibly on its nuclear or ballistic missile installations. Over the past few days, as a result, it has amped up its rhetoric against the US.
Some leaders have called to avenge the killing of Iranian commander Qassem Suleimani by an American drone in Baghdad on this day one year ago. In a closed session of parliament, Suleimani's successor Esmail Ghaani said Iran-backed militias in the region are ready to take revenge, a sentiment echoed by President Hassan Rouhani himself.
Amid harsh rhetoric coming out of Iran and a wobbly transfer of power under way in the US, in Al Ula, efforts will be on to resolve the Qatar crisis.
In 2017, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Egypt all cut ties with Doha accusing it of sponsoring terror groups and intervening in the internal affairs of its neighbours. The UAE has confirmed that it looks forward to a successful summit. And that it is confident Saudi Arabia is efficiently managing this crisis through "steps to enhance the intra-Gulf dialogue towards the future", as said in a tweet by Dr Anwar Gargash, the UAE'S Minister of State for Foreign Affairs.
In summation, a very interesting summit awaits us all.
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute and a columnist for The National
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Retail gloom
Online grocer Ocado revealed retail sales fell 5.7 per cen in its first quarter as customers switched back to pre-pandemic shopping patterns.
It was a tough comparison from a year earlier, when the UK was in lockdown, but on a two-year basis its retail division, a joint venture with Marks&Spencer, rose 31.7 per cent over the quarter.
The group added that a 15 per cent drop in customer basket size offset an 11.6. per cent rise in the number of customer transactions.
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Rating: 4/5
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Safety 'top priority' for rival hyperloop company
The chief operating officer of Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, Andres de Leon, said his company's hyperloop technology is “ready” and safe.
He said the company prioritised safety throughout its development and, last year, Munich Re, one of the world's largest reinsurance companies, announced it was ready to insure their technology.
“Our levitation, propulsion, and vacuum technology have all been developed [...] over several decades and have been deployed and tested at full scale,” he said in a statement to The National.
“Only once the system has been certified and approved will it move people,” he said.
HyperloopTT has begun designing and engineering processes for its Abu Dhabi projects and hopes to break ground soon.
With no delivery date yet announced, Mr de Leon said timelines had to be considered carefully, as government approval, permits, and regulations could create necessary delays.
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Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
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if you go
The flights
The closest international airport to the TMB trail is Geneva (just over an hour’s drive from the French ski town of Chamonix where most people start and end the walk). Direct flights from the UAE to Geneva are available with Etihad and Emirates from about Dh2,790 including taxes.
The trek
The Tour du Mont Blanc takes about 10 to 14 days to complete if walked in its entirety, but by using the services of a tour operator such as Raw Travel, a shorter “highlights” version allows you to complete the best of the route in a week, from Dh6,750 per person. The trails are blocked by snow from about late October to early May. Most people walk in July and August, but be warned that trails are often uncomfortably busy at this time and it can be very hot. The prime months are June and September.
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke (4.30pm)
RB Leipzig v Freiburg (4.30pm)
Hoffenheim v Hertha Berlin (4.30pm)
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Paderborn (4.30pm)
Augsburg v Wolfsburg (4.30pm)
Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Monchengladbach (7.30pm)
Sunday, May 17
Cologne v Mainz (4.30pm),
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Though mostly conservative, Florida is usually always “close” in presidential elections. In most elections, the candidate that wins the Sunshine State almost always wins the election, as evidenced in 2016 when Trump took Florida, a state which has not had a democratic governor since 1991.
Joe Biden’s campaign has spent $100 million there to turn things around, understandable given the state’s crucial 29 electoral votes.
In 2016, Mr Trump’s democratic rival Hillary Clinton paid frequent visits to Florida though analysts concluded that she failed to appeal towards middle-class voters, whom Barack Obama won over in the previous election.
FTO designations impose immigration restrictions on members of the organisation simply by virtue of their membership and triggers a criminal prohibition on knowingly providing material support or resources to the designated organisation as well as asset freezes.
It is a crime for a person in the United States or subject to the jurisdiction of the United States to knowingly provide “material support or resources” to or receive military-type training from or on behalf of a designated FTO.
Representatives and members of a designated FTO, if they are aliens, are inadmissible to and, in certain circumstances removable from, the United States.
Except as authorised by the Secretary of the Treasury, any US financial institution that becomes aware that it has possession of or control over funds in which an FTO or its agent has an interest must retain possession of or control over the funds and report the funds to the Treasury Department.
