James Carville's mantra rings in my ears every election cycle: "It's the economy, stupid".
The famed political strategist coined the phrase in 1992 but it's still relevant now, with the Democrats on track to retake both chambers of Congress in the midterm elections, gaining powerful oversight roles over Donald Trump's presidency.
The result will probably have a profound impact on the data centre buildout and other sectors.
As results trickled in late into the night in Washington - and during the morning rush hour in Abu Dhabi - it became clear that this week's vote was a referendum on Mr Trump's performance as well as Americans' pocketbooks.
Early results from NBC News's exit poll showed nearly half of voters saw the midterms as a rebuke of the US President, with the economy again being a key frustration.
Mr Trump made sweeping promises during the 2024 election, when Americans chose to send him back to the Oval Office. Those promises included slashing energy costs, reining in price pressures and a pledge to “make America affordable again”.
By most metrics, the economy is on solid footing. US manufacturing activity picked up in October despite uncertainty over policies from the Beltway and rising prices from the Iran war.
Layoffs fell to their lowest level in 18 months, while job openings surged. The nation's GDP accelerated at a 3.4 per cent clip in the third quarter. Consumer spending is resilient. The unemployment rate continues to hover around a historically low 4 per cent.
However, Mr Trump ran into the same problem that drove Democrats out of power in 2024: inflation.
For Joe Biden, it was a post-Covid inflationary surge exacerbated by a round of stimulus cheques that drove headline inflation to 9.1 per cent in 2022. The portrayal stuck with Kamala Harris, the Democratic party's nominee for president after Mr Biden unexpectedly dropped out of the race.
For Mr Trump, it is the war in Iran, and the greatest oil shock in history, that has driven up energy prices amid an AI buildout.
Headline inflation rose at a 3.7 per cent annual pace in September, compared to the 3 per cent rate in January 2025. The Federal Reserve has reversed its rate-cutting cycle and raised interest rates by a quarter point in August. It could do so again in December. Yields on the 10 and 30-year Treasuries recently climbed to their highest levels since before the 2008 global financial crisis.
And while the share of voters who said inflation had weighed on them is similar to 2024 levels, roughly two-thirds of voters said the President had made the economy worse.
Separate exit polls from NBC said 44 per cent of voters said their financial situation was worse than two years ago, compared to 18 per cent who said it was better. About 38 per cent said it is “about the same”. Seventy-five per cent of voters said they were either “dissatisfied” or “angry” about the country today, compared to 18 per cent who said they were “satisfied” and 7 per cent who said they were “enthusiastic”.
Recent moves by the President suggest he understands he needed to regain control of prices, chief among them a disputed deal that allows the sale of Russian diesel to US and global markets.
Mr Trump made a final appeal to voters on Tuesday, telling Fox and Friends that “inflation was solved”.
Despite the millions of dollars spent on campaign finance this season, no messaging was stronger than the sticker shock consumers faced while filling up their cars and grocery carts.
Traders on Wall Street took notice, too. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were all in the red, while investors rushed into bonds for safety. The dollar extended its losses.
Mr Trump spent his first two years in office touting deregulation, the data centre roll-out and a range of business-friendly policies. Now comes the reckoning.
