The US-Israel war on Iran and the US-Iran framework agreement have perpetuated uncertainty in the Middle East. The status of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the next Israeli government coalition and the Donald Trump administration’s next move are all hard to predict.
There are clear lessons to be drawn.
Israel’s attempt to reshape the regional order through force has failed. Iran’s focus on ideology is reaching an impasse. The US’s confusing behaviour is yielding conflicting visions. The fate of the region should not be tied to the three powers’ destabilising behaviour.
The Gulf Arab states possess the diplomatic reach, strategic foresight and economic leverage to activate a new vision. Together with their partners in the Mediterranean and willing regional states, they can bring along a new order for the Middle East.
States across the Gulf and the Mediterranean can be a buffer of resilience against the region’s endemic uncertainties. They balance deterrence with diplomacy and believe in co-existence, even with difficult neighbours. The Levant and the Mediterranean are now part of the Gulf’s strategic calculus.
The disastrous war in Gaza and spillover in Lebanon triggered an open confrontation between Israel and Iran, for which the Gulf paid a high price. Shared instability in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Gulf affects trade routes, energy security, migration flows and economic resilience. What happens in Beirut, Gaza, the Gulf or the Strait of Hormuz no longer stays there.
The Gulf and Mediterranean states have a stake in advancing peace and solving that regional puzzle. That is why the inaugural Gulf-Med Summit, which gets under way in Rome on Wednesday, matters.
The summit convenes a select number of knowledgeable figures who are committed to advancing peace and moving policy forward – including negotiators, business leaders, diplomats and practitioners with direct access to and influence on decision-making processes. In a fragmented region, personal trust and informal channels matter as much as formal institutions. The summit strengthens long-standing relationships and fosters new ones, creating a trusted network that can be activated during periods of stability as well as moments of crisis.
The goal is not to replace organisations such as the EU, the Gulf Co-operation Council or the Arab League. The convening network permeates them. The strategic map of the region is changing faster than existing institutions can adapt. Thus, there is a need to create platforms for new forms of multilateralism that are nimble, responsive and hybrid in their format and tailored to emerging geographies.
The Gulf and the Mediterranean are becoming part of a single geopolitical space, linked by security concerns, economic corridors, energy networks and shared vulnerabilities. Countries across this emerging Gulf-Med region are already adjusting. They are investing in alternative ports, trade corridors, pipelines, railway networks and strategic routes to reduce exposure to future disruptions. They understand that resilience is no longer a luxury. It is a necessity.
What remains missing is tying these projects together in a co-ordinated fashion. The network emanating out of the summit will strive to do that.
It is an agile, efficient channel for a new regional geography with accompanying tools and actors. It will strengthen co-operation between the Gulf and Europe, influence outcomes on the Palestine-Israel conflict, post-war Iran, the stabilisation of Lebanon and Syria, Palestinian governance and the opportunities that future political change in Israel may create.
Israel, Iran and the US’s actions have brought war and destruction. In this context, the Gulf and Mediterranean states have an opportunity to help build a lasting and inclusive order that delivers peace and prosperity to the region.
Dr Bader Al-Saif is a professor of history at Kuwait University and a fellow at Chatham House
Dr Maria Fantappie is the head of the Mediterranean, Middle East and Africa Programme at Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome
