European leaders launched a new peace initiative for Ukraine on Sunday night when President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer for dinner in London.
The signs are that Russia may be seeking to finally accept a Europe-led push to quiet a conflict that has dragged on for more than four years. Yet the atmospherics are currently not promising.
Practically speaking, any European initiative requires German leadership. This brings us to ask questions of the position of Mr Merz, who has been in power for more than a year but still lingers in the shadows of Europe’s triumvirate.
On Sunday, the leaders focused on taking the next steps within the framework of the so-called Coalition of the Willing, further support for Ukraine and possible future negotiations with Russia. The statement thereafter was solid and resolute. It stated that the leaders “underlined that Europe had an important role to play in any settlement, as a steadfast supporter of Ukraine”.
The top bullet points in the outline for the basis of a deal included Russian President Vladimir Putin agreeing to an “immediate and complete ceasefire” and that the current line of contact be the starting point for negotiations. Other points in the maximalist position were both security guarantees for Ukraine, a hold on Russian assets and protection of European security interests.
For Mr Merz to deliver this would require an act of statesmanship of historic proportions with Mr Putin. But remember, Europe craves a figure of great impact who can deliver a historical outcome. Turning to Berlin, there is little sign that the country is the hands of a powerful guide.
Mr Merz is troubled by an underperforming coalition and a lack of confidence in his leadership that is at record lows in the opinion polls. Germany’s failure last week to secure a UN Security Council seat despite being among the organisation’s most generous donors is something of a measure of failure on Mr Merz’s part to make a mark on the world.
Like Mr Starmer, the German leader came to office promising a fresh yet confident style of leadership but very quickly became mired in humdrum political clashes that have sapped his standing in record time.
Mr Starmer faces the fight of his life over the next few weeks to retain the job he secured less than two years ago.
Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham is seeking to return to UK Parliament in a special election on June 18. After that, he is expected to challenge Mr Starmer over the summer. Given the poll standings and other divisions facing the government, Mr Starter will be something of a Harry Houdini to triumph over that push for power by the UK’s “King of the North”.
Lurking in shadows for Mr Merz is a potential challenger from within his own party as well.
Marshalling in the wings is Hendrik Wust, the premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, who like Mr Burnham is a regional leader with strong popularity and the gloss of bucking the trend of German politics. Such is the domestic scene of fracture and impasse that it will be very hard for Mr Merz to transcend his woes with the European initiative for peace in Ukraine.
At the weekend, Mr Merz also launched a comeback with a speech to a part conference. It was notable that he chose the words of his long-time political rival, former chancellor Angela Merkel, to carry his message. “We can do it,” was Ms Merkel’s catchphrase when she was in power during the 2015 European migrant crisis, and it has now been adopted by her internal party foe.
“We can achieve it if we all stand together and if we believe in ourselves a little more again,” Mr Merz said as he listed his goals in power, including rebuilding the largest conventional army in Europe. About the same time, Ms Merkel also intervened in the German political debate. She is being mooted for a political comeback as the European envoy who could deliver an agreement with Mr Putin.
In a long interview with the business newspaper Handelsblatt, she was notably more helpful to Mr Merz than former British prime minister Tony Blair’s recent interventions have been to Mr Starmer.
She noted that Mr Merz has been challenged by a ferocity of social media criticism, some undoubtedly directed from abroad, that was beyond compare with the atmosphere she faced on coming into power. She shared advice from the late former chancellor Helmut Kohl, who was a mentor both to herself and Mr Merz, on the temperament required to lead Germany.
She gently advised Mr Merz that the job requires “inner contentment, a certain resilience and a generous heart”.
A poster by the satirical theatre Das Distel for its latest show depicts Mr Merz on a surfboard with the line “Life:Life Balance”. Whether that is commentary on his potential post-chancellor lifestyle, or a reflection of what Germany wants from its leader is hard to tell.
In any case, all sides – including Mr Merz himself – agree that the German leader must find a new groove soon.
