A tale of two corners. On one side that leads to Kiel town centre's main shopping precinct is a poster for Germany's first military veterans day taking place on Sunday.
The slogan invites passers-by to Show Respect and reminds the former armed forces members that Once Connected, Always Together.
On the other corner that leads to the bayside harbour wall is the anti-war slogan Kreig dem Kreig (war against war) scrawled in paint and red paint blotches cover the doorway.
The target was the offices of the Foundation Science and Democracy, a 30-year-old think tank dedicated to Germany's constitution and the fight against populism and extremism.
Local shopkeeper Luca Olivieri says the graffiti is the work of fringe local activists, but he also reflects that Germany’s new announcements of more defence spending have left many with questions.
“Sometimes there are little groups of people here who are protesting against the foundation,” he says.
Recent announcements about a pipeline of extra spending on defence have been unsettling to more than just the violent fringe groups.
“It feels like they are openly saying they want to be prepared for war and I think that is just the wrong way,” he said. “It feels like this could be a way to trigger war. Its anyway very expensive and not good for this country.”
Not far from the town centre, the researcher Ivan Kharitonov, who works for another Kiel-based policy institution, can claim to have a front-row seat to the military build-up, which has been on the cards since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. The build-up is known as the Zeitenwende, or turning point, and new Chancellor Friedrich Merz has said he plans to go further and faster.
Mr Kharitonov works at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy collating information on the expansion of Europe's defences. The Institute gained an international following for its Ukraine support and assistance tracker, launched soon after the Russian invasion. Now it has started publishing the Kiel Military Procurement Tracker at a time when Europe’s Nato members are promising to more than double annual military spending over the next decade. Germany's defence budget rose by 23 per cent in 2024 alone.
Overlooking the Bay of Kiel, the offices of the institute have both a physical and a data-driven vantage point on the arms race.
As the attack on the sister think tank in Kiel demonstrated, it is not just work of quiet academic interest. Kiel has a historic link to Germany's military, in particular the Navy, as it hosted the High Seas fleet. To this day there is a naval base, dockyards and armament factories in the area.
Germany's government took office in early May promising to boost already rising defence spending. In the two years after the 2022 invasion orders for military equipment just about doubled to €90 billion over the previous two year period, according to a May report.
Even so the gaps to be filled are yawning. For example, Germany ordered 18 main battle tanks until July 2024. It then placed an order of 105 tanks a year ago, but when these are delivered the country will still have 2,000 fewer tanks than it had in 2004.
While it will take years for European countries to catch-up with Russia's capacity, there is a real change in the demand for military equipment. “Real in the sense that it seems there is a willingness to do a defence build-up even if it not decided where the funds will come from or, in terms of production, if they even have the capacity,” Mr Kharitonov told The National.
The pipeline of orders is certainly a boost for German defence companies. Industry giant Rheinmetall's shares, which traded at €604 at the start of 2025, are now up at €1,745. “Defence stocks have risen well ahead of the timing of placing the orders or the recruitment of the personnel on the assumption overall revenue would be boosted at the same pace as those factors,” Mr Kharitonov said.
On a visit to Kyiv on Thursday, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius made additional pledges of extra money that would bring Germany's total support for Ukraine to about €9 billion this year. In a demonstration that the relationship is now extending to arms factories, the two countries are jointly planning to develop “long-range weapons systems”.
The Kiel Institute researchers suggest a two-fold impact on Germany's build up from Ukraine. First that most of its own replenishment is replacing materiel shipped to Ukraine and second most of the pledges have not yet been fulfilled, implying some of the new factory output will be directed to the front-line country in the future.
“Most of the supplies from Germany that have been going to Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion, as result of the US and Europe sending weapons, have been from their stockpiles,” he said. “There is a shift to towards factory procurement, so, when there is a pledge to Ukraine, we will have to supply ourselves and Ukraine and build even more.”
One young German air force flight lieutenant encountered at a railway station both welcomed the extra spending and added a caveat: “We need the tools to work with, every member of the military knows this, but at the same time we deeply hope we never have to use them.”
Military veteran Dirk Meyer was at the same railway station and said a big change was coming for Germany's coming of age generation. “Most people have spent the last 30 years wanting to live in peace. They don't want to kill someone, they want to party and have a good time,” he said. “I think we need some military but I don't think we need the level of spending we are reading about. It is still better to talk to each other.”
The economic impact on towns such as Kiel can be expected to be good even if not quite the boon that Russian conscription bonuses have provided to military families.
“There is a positive impact on GDP from opening a factory or expanding production lines. It creates jobs and demand for factory resources. For Russia the war economy has boosted the economy and with those mobilised it has created relatively high salaries, so there is an incentive to continue the conflict.”
In the town centre there is a rebuilt church, St Nikolai, which established a relationship with the cathedral in Coventry, England, which was also bombed to rubble in the Second World War. It was one of the earliest gestures of peace between former enemies for the pacifist movement in Europe.
An elderly patron of the Church, Franz Claussen, said the town was both a haven for the military and beneficiary of the peace tradition. “To this day there are exports from here to Israel, Singapore, Egypt – there is enough work they say to keeping going until 2040,” he said.
As a personal observation, Mr Kharitonov concurs the embrace of the town for the military build-up is nuanced. “In Germany there is the historical context that means there are some doubts. Out on the street in Kiel people are surrounded by what has been done in the war – this is not a handsome, Hanseatic old city centre,” he said.
“People who work in defence sector will of course be satisfied there is more work but there is also more awareness here of what it means ultimately to have that build up locally, and be a target as a result.”
