A $1 billion project to build an advanced US military hospital in Ramstein, Germany is suddenly in the public eye. Scheduled to open next year, there are now doubts about its future. Its role could be made redundant should there be drastic changes in US deployments in the country and around Europe.
The speculation was triggered by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who risked US President Donald Trump’s fury by claiming that the Iranians had come out of their war against America and Israel stronger. “A whole nation is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership, especially by these so-called Revolutionary Guards,” he told a school visit.
The Middle East has suffered the greatest detriment so far from the war. But Europe has also lost greatly from the conflict, particularly on the economic front. By diverging further from US military objectives, it has much to lose by way of Washington’s strategic support.
The 36,500-strong US military personnel stationed in Germany obviously serve at the whim of their President. Key bases include Ramstein, Stuttgart and Buchel – names that once seemed embedded in the US military landscape. But times are changing. The Pentagon announced on Friday that a withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Germany will get under way. Included in that is a missile defence deployment that is particularly important for the German posture towards Russia.
The precarious future of US troops in Europe is not only a German issue. Mr Trump is known to harbour feelings of betrayal towards Italy, where there are about 12,500 US troops, and Spain, which has 3,800 stationed there. Mr Trump has also put his overall commitment to Nato in doubt.
The US President’s retaliatory swipe at Mr Merz includes accusations that the German leader does not know what he’s talking about on Iran and has been “ineffective” in bringing the war in Ukraine to an end. He went on to advise Mr Merz to fix his “broken” country, in particular migration and energy-related challenges.
There is no security to be claimed for a strong relationship with Mr Trump, and Mr Merz is finding out the truth about it as he dares to distance himself from the US President. For a leader barely a year in office, the bruising realities of riding the tiger that is Mr Trump’s presidency while presiding over a stagnant economy include low poll numbers and a governing coalition that is in disarray.
It took a combination of US Congress and former US president Joe Biden to kill an order announced during the first Trump presidency to pull 12,000 American troops out of Germany, albeit to post them to other parts of Europe. There is no suggestion of similar relief coming now. Which means Europe is now inevitably looking to transition from its post-Second World War security arrangement with America to building its own defence capabilities.
When it comes to Europe addressing the loss of its supply lines to the Arabian Gulf, it is the French and the British – not the Germans – who are leading consultations with 50 nations on the matter of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Berlin has not led any proposal projecting its forces in a protecting role during the current crisis.
But given its resources and a relatively larger population, Germany is inevitably the prime mover in the effort to bolster Europe’s hinterland.
Mr Merz has proved to be an enthusiastic proponent of spending more on European defence. In a shift with his predecessor, Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor also leaned into sending weapons capable of hitting targets inside Russia. He is more proactive on the Ukraine war, and his position is much more about pushing back against the Kremlin.
Germany’s policy position in 2022, that Kyiv hold as much of its lines as it can until Moscow is ready to negotiate, has been dropped under Mr Merz. With Ukraine playing an outsized role in Europe’s defence, German leaders can see what military credibility looks like. While a country like Spain can, instead, hope to find its global resonance in progressive politics, Berlin seeks to establish itself in defence and diplomacy.
In last week’s budget, Germany included huge outlays for supporting Ukraine, with €11.6 billion ($13.6 billion) next year and another €8.5 billion for every year between 2028 and 2030. Berlin is also on course to triple its annual military spending between 2020 and 2028. Following the US announcement about a partial withdrawal, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius gave assurances that its military expansion was on track to ensure the defence of Europe could be homegrown.
The schism between Mr Trump and Mr Merz sets a new tone to the Berlin-Washington relationship. Barring a short-term Russian second front in Europe, the two countries appear to be embarking on a reckoning that has been accelerated by the Iran war.
Europe’s priorities currently narrowly focus on its supply chains as it balances between the US and China. The question, therefore, is how will the continent strive to keep the US on-side while not antagonising Beijing? Germany’s additional balancing act is that it is the only major country that predominantly looks to Europe’s eastern flank for its security.
The shape of its armed forces will, therefore, be much more land-based and territorial than the needs of the Western European nations. But by gradually withdrawing from the continent, Mr Trump has challenged Germany to sort out its own interests as Washington pivots elsewhere.
