In Britain, prime ministers eventually run out of steam, run out of luck and out of support. It happened to Margaret Thatcher. It happened to Tony Blair.
In both cases it took more than a decade. What is striking is that it is happening now so quickly to Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer at a time when the official opposition party, the Conservatives, are themselves lacklustre and floundering.
Mr Starmer is the UK’s sixth UK prime minister in 10 years, just 19 months in Downing Street following 14 years of failed Conservative prime ministers. Newspaper headlines nevertheless focus on why this supposedly refreshing and once-upon-a-time new leader is probably the most unpopular sitting premier since records began.
Mr Starmer has a YouGov polling rating of minus 57 per cent. He is a poor communicator. He also appointed a seriously flawed veteran politician, Peter Mandelson, to the top job of UK ambassador to the US.
Mr Mandelson’s nickname was “the Prince of Darkness”, which might have been a clue to his unsuitability. Another clue was Mr Mandelson’s close relationship to the disgraced American paedophile Jeffrey Epstein. He is now under investigation amid examinations of his financial and other dealings over the past two decades.
His appointment was championed by Mr Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, who himself was a controversial Downing Street figure and who has also now resigned along with Mr Starmer’s head of communications. Amid the maelstrom, the Prime Minister’s own judgment remains in question although he has some breathing space. His allies and key ministers have regrouped and publicly voiced support.
Nevertheless, the political problem remains.
There’s a by-election on February 26 in a usually safe Labour seat in Greater Manchester, and Labour could lose. Then there are local elections across England in May and for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments.
Scottish Labour party leader Anas Sarwar has suggested Mr Starmer should quit. Mr Sarwar wants the best result for Labour in Scotland and sees Mr Starmer’s mistakes as a big problem in a tough contest with the Scottish National Party.
Polling nationwide for Labour is dire everywhere. Even though Labour MPs have three years breathing space before a general election, they all must wonder when – how - and if – Mr Starmer can turn things around.
If Labour loses badly in the May elections, it could mean curtains for the Prime Minister. Welsh nationalists could take control in Cardiff. The SNP – as Mr Sarwar fears – could potentially be back in government in Edinburgh. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party and the Greens might do well across England and in the Greater Manchester by-election.
Yet the problem for those in Labour who want rid of Mr Starmer is obvious. Who would do better? Potential successors – Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, former Labour Deputy Leader Angela Rayner and current Health Secretary Wes Streeting – all have their own varied problems.
All have to move carefully, too. Disloyalty to Mr Starmer could easily backfire. The longstanding rule in British politics is that he (or she) who wields the knife shall not wear the crown.
It’s, therefore, not surprising that British public opinion remains so divided, fickle, disappointed and at times almost despairing. The Conservative party’s 14 years in power saw a rapid turnover of failed leaders – David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak. The current Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, is picking up some support although she has lost party members.
A few former Conservative MPs have even defected to Reform, but many voters viscerally dislike Reform and seem to loathe its leader, Mr Farage. Meanwhile, the Greens are winning approval in opinion polls and younger voters, in particular, may regard them as an alternative to Labour.
The underlying story, then, is that the old two-party Westminster system of politics, government and opposition – Labour versus Conservatives – is broken. The immediate turmoil is tricky, but take a step back. Why is British politics in this mess about a mostly American scandal?
It’s because Mr Mandelson was appointed UK ambassador in Washington when it was assumed that the “Prince of Darkness” would somehow charm US President Donald Trump. Instead, Mr Mandelson has been brought down by a very American scandal involving a despicable US billionaire – Epstein – abusing young girls and who attracted some very rich and powerful American men.
All of this may unseat Mr Starmer – a British prime minister who had no direct contact whatsoever with Epstein and does not appear to have any friends within Epstein’s disgusting social circle. You may, therefore, wonder how Epstein’s friends, contacts and enablers in the US – including politicians, businesspeople, millionaires and billionaires – somehow survive (at least so far) this appalling scandal when a squeaky clean (if somewhat boring) British prime minister is fighting for his political life.
Can Mr Starmer, who never even met Epstein, be the next big casualty of an affair that has already destroyed the reputation of the former Prince Andrew, now re-named Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor? Yes, possibly. It’s a funny old world.
