As the UAE puts sustainability front and centre, globally there seems to be a quiet shift happening in the climate conversation. It isn’t making headlines, but it is no less significant.
It’s the growing sense that the 1.5°C target might be slipping out of reach, and that perhaps we should start coming to terms with something closer to 3°C.
This shift isn’t loud or dramatic. It’s subtle – embedded in phrases like “realistic outcomes” or “best achievable scenarios”. But behind those words is a troubling idea: that we might begin to accept a level of global warming that just a few years ago would have seemed unthinkable.
The temptation is understandable. After all, 3°C doesn’t sound catastrophic. It sounds manageable, like a hotter day at the beach or a mild summer surge. But that’s the danger. Averages mask extremes, and degrees hide disruption.
The truth is a 3°C world would be profoundly different from the one we know today. At 3°C, we’re not talking about uncomfortable heat – we’re talking about temperatures so intense that in some regions, outdoor work may be unsafe for extended periods.
Heatwaves are projected to become longer, more frequent and more intense, especially across southern Europe, Africa, the southern US and parts of Australia. Droughts could stretch across seasons, drying up riverbeds and shrinking the windows in which farmers can plant and harvest. These longer dry spells will also place pressure on already-stressed water supplies, leading to growing competition between agricultural, domestic and industrial use.
And when the rain comes, it may come all at once, flooding roads, fields and homes. What used to be considered a “once-in-a-century” flood might arrive every five to 10 years in some places, leaving communities with little time to recover between shocks.
This isn’t a distant or abstract threat. It’s about whether crops can grow, whether infrastructure holds and whether people can continue to live and work where they always have.
Nature won’t be spared. Coral reefs, already under strain, could vanish – meaning that if you’ve ever wanted to see a thriving reef, now might be the time. These ecosystems support fisheries, protect coastlines and are home to a quarter of all marine life.
Forests could also begin to shift irreversibly. The Amazon, one of the world’s great carbon sinks, may face large-scale die-back and releasing huge volumes of carbon and causing a feedback loop that makes the problem worse. Meanwhile, insects like bees and other pollinators, which underpin global agriculture, could face rapid population declines, struggling to adapt to the pace of change.
And speaking of food: staple crops will struggle. Yields drop, nutrition falls and farming becomes a gamble. As growing conditions become more extreme and unpredictable, crops may not develop as fully or reliably, and even successful harvests may deliver less nutritional value than expected. The combined pressures of heat, water stress and ecological disruption will make food systems less resilient overall.
But food security is more than just a global statistic; it’s a daily reality for millions. And when that reality becomes more precarious, so do local economies, rural communities and the prospects for stability.
Meanwhile, sea levels won’t rise overnight, but they will rise, potentially by up to a metre this century. That may not sound like much, but it puts millions of people living in low-lying coastal areas at increasing risk of regular flooding. And for many, the threat won’t be some future scenario; it will shape decisions about where they can live, work and build for the next generation.
Cities like Lagos, Miami and Shanghai will face growing challenges, from infrastructure strain to gradual displacement. River deltas such as the Nile and Mekong, which support large populations and vital agriculture, are particularly vulnerable.
None of this is abstract. It’s real, it’s data-driven and it’s coming – unless we act now.
The good news is we’re not starting from zero. We’re more equipped than ever, with real solutions already in hand – from renewable energy and advanced materials to AI, carbon capture and climate modelling. What matters now is how quickly and decisively we scale them.
The UAE, through its long-term investment in innovation and technology, is already showing what leadership looks like. This year’s Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week theme – The Nexus of Next: All Systems Go – underscores the urgency and opportunity of this moment.
Because while the science tells us what’s at stake, it’s innovation that shows us the way forward. We still have a choice. And we still have time. But only if we act before “only 3 degrees” becomes the future we settle for.
