The diplomatic mobilisation at the UN this week will be about more than speeches and meetings. It will mark a reckoning in traditional alliances, particularly between the US and Europe, against a broader contest between diplomacy on the world stage and militarisation on the ground.
The evolution of European positions is new, and one that is increasingly independent of Washington. And the US has clearly resolved to bless Israel’s onslaught to “cleanse” Gaza, not just of Hamas, but of its Palestinian population.
The situation on the ground is disgraceful. Israel is flattening towers and herding people along coastal corridors adjacent to Gaza’s beautiful shore, which US President Donald Trump hopes to transform into the “Riviera of the Middle East”. It is a painful, humiliating spectacle, especially for Arabs and Muslims, many of whom feel a sense of helpless resignation.
Arab and Muslim states have effectively declared that war is not an option. They have made clear they will not fight Israel nor sever bilateral security and co-operation agreements with the US. The US and Israel have understood this and concluded that now is the time to realise Israel’s expansionist ambitions.
The Doha Summit rallied international support for Qatari sovereignty and issued a statement condemning Israeli actions in Palestine, backed by the US. The summit expressed outrage and threatened retaliation if Israel repeated any attack on Qatar or any other Gulf state. This gathering aimed to send a message to the US, conveying rejection of its full embrace of the Israeli government’s violations of international and humanitarian law.
But there were no declared concrete measures, and no promises of military or economic action. Mr Trump took note and declared that Israeli violations of Qatari sovereignty would not be repeated. He sent US Secretary of State Marco Rubio from Israel to Doha to reassure Qatar that the US was open to a reinforced defence co-operation agreement.
Mr Trump understands that Doha does not merely want defence co-operation but a formal US-Qatar mutual defence pact. Thus, he opened the door to “enhanced defence co-operation,” confident that such language would ease tensions. Indeed, every Gulf state desires closer security ties with Washington not just Qatar.
In the coming week, several ministerial-level meetings will take place in New York, including the traditional gathering between foreign ministers of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) and the US Secretary of State. That meeting will focus heavily on security co-operation. Saudi Arabia signing a mutual defence pact with Pakistan last week was a notable development, and other Gulf states appear poised to follow suit.
The message directed at the US is that it should not assume that Washington is the region’s only option or partner, even if it enjoys primacy and preference. While building defence ties with China or Russia is highly unlikely at present, Gulf states could consider options depending on how Washington’s posture evolves.
Saudi Arabia’s choice of Pakistan as its mutual defence partner also carries a nuclear dimension, specifically, a nuclear counterweight to Israel’s and Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
A key implicit message to the US is that backing Israel’s unrestrained aggression and its campaign to erase Palestine and its people may trigger unintended consequences.
Indeed, Israel’s military campaign wears an American cloak of protection. Mr Rubio this week backed a swift military resolution in Gaza and pledged unconditional support for Israel in its quest to destroy Hamas, at any cost, so long as the destruction and displacement proceed quickly. For now, backlash against the US and Israel appears contained, but the situation could spiral. Israel’s starvation tactics, mass killings, and forced displacement could stretch for weeks, even months.
The situation Arab and Muslim states find themselves in is not solely the result of American or Israeli actions but is also due to European policies, albeit for different reasons. To be sure, European states have begun taking action against Israel economically, politically, and even in sport. They are also challenging the US in international forums.
What unites Arab states, European countries, and much of the world, is an insistence on defending the two-state solution, which Israel, backed by the US, is determined to destroy. Saudi Arabia and France lead a global effort to anchor Palestinian statehood within the UN and halt the American-Israeli push to erase it entirely.
There is, in parallel, a US effort to retaliate against this global defiance manifesting in the push for recognition of Palestine at the UN. This retaliation is not mere posturing. It is serious and bitter, for it entails not only embracing Israel’s occupation of Gaza, but also endorsing its annexation of the West Bank. The Trump administration intends to teach the world a lesson it will not forget: “Do not ever again take positions that embarrass and isolate America.”
But who will step up to protect the West Bank from what lies ahead, now that it is clear that no one is prepared to stop Israel’s occupation of Gaza? All talk of suspending or cancelling peace agreements with Israel remain unrealistic. There is no indication that Egypt is prepared to tear up the Camp David Accords with Israel, despite Israel threatening its national security by pushing Palestinian refugees towards the Egyptian side of Rafah and imposing the Muslim Brotherhood on Egypt at an extraordinarily sensitive moment.
Nor is Jordan likely to annul its peace treaty with Israel, even as Israel enables settlers to impose a new reality on the ground that paves the way for forced displacement, the annexation of the West Bank, and the execution of their dream of “Jordan as an alternative homeland for the Palestinians”.
The Palestinian Authority is not ready to trample on the Oslo Accords that brought it into power and require it to continue maintaining security in the West Bank. Nor is Hamas about to sacrifice itself by stepping aside to halt Israeli-engineered displacement and devastation being inflicted on Palestinian civilians.
Hamas will not acknowledge its mistakes but will persist in them no matter the cost. It clings to a futile, bankrupt, ill-conceived hostage card. Israel has used Hamas, and Hamas has served Israel, wittingly or unwittingly. Both have opposed the two-state solution and in this, both succeed together.
Palestine, as an idea, is being celebrated at the UN amid cheers of solidarity, a notion with moral and political value. But Palestine, in reality, is a different story. It will secure its place at the UN this year virtually. On the ground, however, no one will intervene to rescue it.
The world’s attention is consumed elsewhere, namely, the war in Ukraine and its repercussions across all of Europe, which is now genuinely preparing for the possibility of a large-scale war on European soil. A physician friend working in a European country relayed, almost casually, that his government had instructed doctors not to take leave in February because the signs are troubling. Europe thus wants Mr Trump to abandon his embrace of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Mr Trump is still searching for a way to avoid war with Iran. The leaders in Tehran are wavering between escalation and submission, fully aware that there is no way to predict reactions of the American president. At the UN, the Iran issue will draw less fanfare than the Palestine question, but side meetings with European leaders will be worth monitoring.
Syria, too, is likely to be an exceptionally interesting guest. The UN will roll out the red carpet for Ahmad Al Shara, now a moderate President of Syria. Global media attention will fixate on Mr Al Shara, his speech, his bilateral meetings, especially in light of Mr Trump’s open support for him. US special envoy for Syria Tom Barrack is hand-in-hand with Mr Al Shara and his Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani, charting the roadmap ahead.
Pragmatism is compelling Damascus to soften its tone and mute its protests over Israeli violations both inside Syria and against Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. Syria today is not prepared to be the vanguard in defending Palestine.
Mr Trump, who appears to despise the UN, will use the platform to deliver a scolding to those who criticise, oppose or embarrass him. In his view, he is the sole shining star of the show and in his book, no one should eclipse the US president.
