September in British politics is a time to look ahead. It comes after the summer parliamentary break and the usually politically quiet month of August, a time lacking political news when parliament is in recess. September is when politics restarts and mainstream politicians look forward to their annual party conferences, although this year with a real sense of trepidation.
The conferences begin at the end of September (the Liberal Democrats and the Labour party) and spread into early October (the Conservative party meeting in Manchester). The trepidation in the Conservatives and Labour stems from serious internal problems.
Some loyal members have doubts about their party leaders and sense of direction. But behind their internal debates, something has changed much more widely in British politics because of the extraordinary rise of the upstart Reform party of Nigel Farage.
Reform has gone from a fringe movement to capturing news headlines almost constantly over the past few months. The party is proving so successful that it leads in opinion polls despite having only four MPs. Labour and the Conservatives seem in a degree of confusion and at times chaos. Rather than setting the political agenda, they are constantly on the defensive, responding to Reform and unable to undermine a surge in support for Mr Farage.
To take the most obvious example, the Reform party has captured the British political news agenda for the past month, culminating in their own party conference in Birmingham this past weekend.
If nature abhors a vacuum, political journalists abhor a news vacuum. But almost every day in August, when it seemed many British politicians were building sandcastles on the beach (metaphorically at least), the Reform party PR machine has been - whether you like them or not - simply outstanding.
The right and far right of British politics have been on the front pages of newspapers and at the top or near the top of TV or news bulletins for a month. They have exploited street protests against asylum seekers, photo-opportunities about “stopping the migrant boats” and flag-waving festivals.
All this peaked with the sometimes bizarre but always newsworthy Reform party conference itself. Mr Farage even managed to make headlines with what for almost any other politician in Britain would be decried as a monumental and perhaps career-ending gaffe.
He appeared in Washington before a US Congressional committee and openly criticised Britain. He suggested Britain is in some way turning into North Korea by limiting freedom of speech. For any other politician, this would be seen as unpatriotic and frankly idiotic. Mr Farage was criticised, but he remains Teflon Nigel. The negative coverage does not stick.
At the same time, the other two main political parties are in deep trouble as a result of self-inflicted wounds. The Conservative party used to boast of being the most successful democratic party in world history.
But in the past decade, it has had a series of failed and deeply flawed leaders. The current leader Kemi Badenoch’s approval ratings are dismal. Conservatives also used to boast that their secret weapon was “loyalty”. The truth is that many current Reform voters are former Conservatives and some of the prominent new members have defected from the Tories.
Labour, meanwhile, has its own self-inflicted wounds. Keir Starmer’s latest reshuffle was forced on him rather than planned. It comes after a row over the underpayment of tax on housing sales from the former Labour party Deputy Leader Angela Rayner. But Labour’s woes go much deeper. Supporters and former supporters, some from the right, left and middle of the party, are wondering (sometimes aloud) what the party is for. The economy is ticking along. The stock market is up.
But there is an enormous amount of nervousness at Westminster ahead of a very difficult October budget, and behind it all, the biggest question that politicians ever face - which way are you facing? Will the government be forced to raise taxes or cut spending, or both? What will Mr Starmer do on immigration that will be seen, in some way, to work?
All this is the core of politics, but Mr Farage’s success in capturing the political agenda for the past month simply reminds us that opposition parties can easily exploit problems while governments are expected in some way to solve them. And that is very tricky right now.
Besides, Mr Farage is always interesting, whether you love him or loathe him. He understands how to be on the front pages and how to lead news bulletins. He is brilliant at finding “hot button issues” that make people listen to news broadcasts and perhaps scare some of us about our future.
Prime Minister Starmer will be judged on whether he solves some of these intractable problems. But perhaps he could also go on the attack. The British truly despise people we call “whingers,” those who complain endlessly but never solve problems. If Mr Starmer treated Reform UK as Whinge UK, he might burst the Farage popularity bubble.
