The Middle East has been in turmoil since October 2023. Missiles have flown in just about every direction, and there is significant concern about what the future might hold. One of the surprises, however, is that Iraq has managed to stay out of the conflict.
For years, many analysts have argued that Iraq has fallen completely under Iran’s shadow partially through control that proxy groups exercise in the country. And yet, these groups have been almost entirely inactive since October 2023, leading to questions as to where exactly the balance of powers lies in Iraq.
The Popular Mobilisation Forces were established following ISIS’s 2014 invasion and occupation of Iraq’s north-west. After the terror group’s defeat, the PMF and affiliated groups sought and obtained direct representation in Parliament and in government. Like all other parties, they used those positions to extract rents and to exercise influence over policy and financial matters. The difference, however, is that the PMF used its status as a paramilitary organisation to impose outcomes in ways that many other groups could not.
Many factions within the PMF were also plainly anti-western in their rhetoric. On occasion, their leaders could be seen directing marches of (relatively small numbers of) followers and openly declaring that their ultimate source of authority was the supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
However, since 2003, Iraq has lost its monolithic status and has become a more complicated society. The PMF may have been pushing a specific political line, but much of the state and society have had little to no interest in being involved in regional struggles of any kind.
Formally, the Iraqi government’s position has been to seek to de-escalate tensions in the region and internally. Politically, however, the government is made up of myriad forces, including groups affiliated to the PMF, each of which has its own set of interests and the means to act upon it.
The quietist groups have long been at a disadvantage, however, given that they favour a moderate and dialogue-based approach that shies away from confrontation no matter the circumstances, which more aggressive groups have consistently used to push the limits on a range of issues.
The contrast can most obviously be seen after arriving at Baghdad International Airport, the road to which has been co-opted by the PMF’s efforts to construct a narrative of struggle and resistance. But visitors to Baghdad who drive along that road can look immediately to the left and see the enormous campus of the newly established American University of Baghdad and the thousands of students who now visit every day. English business schools and language academies can be found almost everywhere in the capital, including on streets that sometimes bear the names and faces of Iranian officers and their Iraqi allies who were killed in action by the American military.
Recent developments will probably have an impact on that delicate balance.
Iraqis and outside observers will all have noticed that the PMF did not get involved at all during the recent fighting between Iran and Israel. Analysts have offered different explanations for what was happening in the background. Some have said that Iran was opposed to any involvement by the PMF for fear that this could lead to greater escalation. Others have argued that Iran’s main priority in Iraq is not to seek military support from the PMF but rather to keep the flow of dollars from Baghdad open.
According to that narrative, any direct military involvement by the PMF could threaten that financial lifeline. Others still have noted that the Iraqi government – mainly Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani and the security forces – worked tirelessly behind the scenes to keep the country out of the conflict, which has been bearing fruit.
Now that the conflict is over, however, a number of consequences will probably flow.
Regardless of which narrative is the most accurate, the fact that the PMF did not take any action whatsoever will be interpreted by many as a sign of weakness and vulnerability. Political forces that have always been antagonistic to the PMF will seek at least partial realignment on a number of fronts, much of which the PMF will find hard to resist given that it will all be coming at the same time.
Within the Iraqi government itself, and within governing coalitions – including but not limited to the Co-ordination Framework (of which the PMF is a part) – the quietist camp will necessarily feel emboldened. It could be that Iraqi politics will be entering a non-confrontation stage, in which armed skirmishes of any kind will be eschewed in favour of business as usual (including the continued and uninterrupted extraction of rents).
Clearly, however, Iraq’s relationship with Iran will not break entirely. All that is likely to happen is that Iraqi groups will feel less compelled to consult or to defer to Tehran in as many matters as before. Iraqi political groups’ relentless rent-seeking for the past 20 years has always meant that they are economically independent, and many now will feel less politically tethered to Iran as well.
If that does happen, it is altogether unclear whether this will translate into any concrete improvements for ordinary Iraqis. It will probably only mean that political power will gradually slip away from the confrontation camp – not with a bang, but with a whimper – with nothing much to replace it other than Iraq’s decrepit political system.
Iraqi politics is too fractious to coalesce around a concrete strategy, particularly in relation to foreign policy, given the country’s limited regional influence. Thus, it is not that a new strategy is being developed. It is that the previous status quo will probably fray without collapsing altogether.
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
It Was Just an Accident
Director: Jafar Panahi
Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr
Rating: 4/5
THE SPECS
Cadillac XT6 2020 Premium Luxury
Engine: 3.6L V-6
Transmission: nine-speed automatic
Power: 310hp
Torque: 367Nm
Price: Dh280,000
If you go
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Seattle from Dh5,555 return, including taxes.
The car
Hertz offers compact car rental from about $300 (Dh1,100) per week, including taxes. Emirates Skywards members can earn points on their car hire through Hertz.
The national park
Entry to Mount Rainier National Park costs $30 for one vehicle and passengers for up to seven days. Accommodation can be booked through mtrainierguestservices.com. Prices vary according to season. Rooms at the Holiday Inn Yakima cost from $125 per night, excluding breakfast.
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More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
Match info
Liverpool 3
Hoedt (10' og), Matip (21'), Salah (45 3')
Southampton 0
The schedule
December 5 - 23: Shooting competition, Al Dhafra Shooting Club
December 9 - 24: Handicrafts competition, from 4pm until 10pm, Heritage Souq
December 11 - 20: Dates competition, from 4pm
December 12 - 20: Sour milk competition
December 13: Falcon beauty competition
December 14 and 20: Saluki races
December 15: Arabian horse races, from 4pm
December 16 - 19: Falconry competition
December 18: Camel milk competition, from 7.30 - 9.30 am
December 20 and 21: Sheep beauty competition, from 10am
December 22: The best herd of 30 camels
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
SPEC SHEET
Display: 6.8" edge quad-HD dynamic Amoled 2X, Infinity-O, 3088 x 1440, 500ppi, HDR10 , 120Hz
Processor: 4nm Snapdragon 8 Gen 1/Exynos 2200, 8-core
Memory: 8/12GB RAM
Storage: 128/256/512GB/1TB
Platform: Android 12
Main camera: quad 12MP ultra-wide f/2.2, 108MP wide f/1.8, 10MP telephoto f/4.9, 10MP telephoto 2.4; Space Zoom up to 100x, auto HDR, expert RAW
Video: 8K@24fps, 4K@60fps, full-HD@60fps, HD@30fps, super slo-mo@960fps
Front camera: 40MP f/2.2
Battery: 5000mAh, fast wireless charging 2.0 Wireless PowerShare
Connectivity: 5G, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth 5.2, NFC
I/O: USB-C
SIM: single nano, or nano and SIM, nano and nano, eSIM/nano and nano
Colours: burgundy, green, phantom black, phantom white, graphite, sky blue, red
Price: Dh4,699 for 128GB, Dh5,099 for 256GB, Dh5,499 for 512GB; 1TB unavailable in the UAE
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup - Sept 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
Five famous companies founded by teens
There are numerous success stories of teen businesses that were created in college dorm rooms and other modest circumstances. Below are some of the most recognisable names in the industry:
- Facebook: Mark Zuckerberg and his friends started Facebook when he was a 19-year-old Harvard undergraduate.
- Dell: When Michael Dell was an undergraduate student at Texas University in 1984, he started upgrading computers for profit. He starting working full-time on his business when he was 19. Eventually, his company became the Dell Computer Corporation and then Dell Inc.
- Subway: Fred DeLuca opened the first Subway restaurant when he was 17. In 1965, Mr DeLuca needed extra money for college, so he decided to open his own business. Peter Buck, a family friend, lent him $1,000 and together, they opened Pete’s Super Submarines. A few years later, the company was rebranded and called Subway.
- Mashable: In 2005, Pete Cashmore created Mashable in Scotland when he was a teenager. The site was then a technology blog. Over the next few decades, Mr Cashmore has turned Mashable into a global media company.
- Oculus VR: Palmer Luckey founded Oculus VR in June 2012, when he was 19. In August that year, Oculus launched its Kickstarter campaign and raised more than $1 million in three days. Facebook bought Oculus for $2 billion two years later.
The specs: 2017 Lotus Evora Sport 410
Price, base / as tested Dh395,000 / Dh420,000
Engine 3.5L V6
Transmission Six-speed manual
Power 410hp @ 7,000rpm
Torque 420Nm @ 3,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined 9.7L / 100km
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How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
LOVE%20AGAIN
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Jim%20Strouse%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStars%3A%20Priyanka%20Chopra%20Jonas%2C%20Sam%20Heughan%2C%20Celine%20Dion%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%202%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Feeding the thousands for iftar
Six industrial scale vats of 500litres each are used to cook the kanji or broth
Each vat contains kanji or porridge to feed 1,000 people
The rice porridge is poured into a 500ml plastic box
350 plastic tubs are placed in one container trolley
Each aluminium container trolley weighing 300kg is unloaded by a small crane fitted on a truck