Donald Trump’s resounding victory in the US election is a stunning testimony about the attitudes of the American public and the state of US political culture.
Mr Trump would appear to be a singularly unappealing candidate by the historical standards of American politics – the first convicted felon to win the presidency, who ran what appeared to be an undisciplined and chaotic campaign.
Indeed, in the closing rally of his campaign, guest speakers spewed racist invective directed at Puerto Ricans, African Americans and other minorities. By all accounts, the Republican ground game in several swing states was virtually non-existent, while Democrats were knocking on doors across the country.
None of it has seemed to matter, because Americans have overwhelmingly embraced Mr Trump’s agenda. He has threatened to prosecute and persecute some of his political opponents and jail them. He promises “retribution” and has assembled a group of wealthy supporters led by Elon Musk.
He has threatened to round up millions of undocumented migrants and carry out “bloody” mass deportations. He has also promised to base the US economy around tariffs that would constitute the largest and most aggressive tax increase in modern American history, increasing prices both for consumers at stores such as Target and Walmart and for manufacturers requiring everything from steel to semiconductor chips.
Mr Trump is less likely to be surrounded by outside experts, military officers and government professionals than he was in his first administration. Instead, this time his administration is almost certain to be packed with personal loyalists and ideologues, including many who could be determined to carry out the most extreme elements of his campaign rhetoric. Whether he relies on “Project 2025” prepared by the Heritage Foundation or his own “Agenda 47”, the very similar plan propagated on his campaign website, he can be expected to replace much of America’s apolitical administrative bureaucracy with loyalists from around the country.
Internationally, the biggest losers are surely the Ukrainians, who are likely to receive virtually no support from a second Trump administration. Indeed, Mr Trump has vowed to end the war in Ukraine the day after his election, which he probably won’t be able to do. But he has hinted at forcing Kyiv to accept highly disadvantageous terms for a ceasefire.
The Palestinians, too, have much to fear. When Mr Trump was in power, he cut all aid to, and relationships with, Palestinians, and might be expected to assist Israel in the dismantling of UNRWA, the UN agency charged with caring for Palestinian refugees. Moreover, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his extremist allies – some of the biggest winners outside the US from this outcome – may well try to move forward with large-scale annexation in the West Bank, as suggested by Mr Trump’s 2020 “Peace to Prosperity” proposal.
Americans were well aware of all of this when they went to the polls. None of it was underhand or remotely veiled. All of it was advertised in blinding political neon.
The only conclusion from the outcome is that much of the broad American public is enthusiastic about Mr Trump’s brand of populist politics. They are not issuing a cry of despair, or repudiating national institutions that are fundamentally failing. Their choice is an outcome forged in a time of relative peace and prosperity. There is chaos in certain parts of the world, but the US is not involved in a direct war anywhere. And while many Americans complain about the economy and cost of living has indeed been an issue for certain segments of society, it is the envy of the world and the consumer spending habits of the general public belie any sense of desperation or widespread impoverishment.
It is, however, certainly a stunning repudiation of American political traditions and political system. Mr Trump has made his hostility to parts of the Constitution and certain aspects of the rule of law crystal clear. Indeed, his victory will also constitute his literal get-out-of-jail-free card, since he was facing a long list of legal issues, especially for the purloined top secret documents case still pending in Florida.
The willingness of so much of the American polity to embrace this version of Mr Trump, and the new and more brutal vision he is proposing, will have a lasting and profoundly corrosive effect on US society and its place in the wider world.
“We won't go back,” Ms Harris declared. But American voters apparently do want to “go back”. Mr Trump would lose, Democrats insisted, because “that's just not us, we're not like that”. Well, American voters strongly disagreed. They had sent a clear message: “No, actually, that is us. We are exactly like that.”
Much of that broader world, including a number of traditional US partners, may now question the reliability and even fundamental seriousness of US society, political culture, global leadership and traditional central role in the international community.
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