Joe Biden just made it tougher for Donald Trump to win


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July 22, 2024

Joe Biden has demonstrated what leadership looks like.

Dropping out of the race for the toughest job in the world – the one you have wanted your whole life, because you know you cannot win a second term against someone you personally believe to be the worst possible candidate for the presidency of the United States – cannot have been easy.

But it needed to be done. And Mr Biden did it. Arguments have been going around the top echelons of the Democratic Party in Washington ever since the President’s sad failure on the public stage in his televised debate with Donald Trump.

It took a while. But he leaves office in January 2025 having sacrificed his political life for his party and for his country.

Had he clung on until the November election, repeating his meandering television performances and slowing down measurably, he would assuredly have lost. He would also have been pilloried as a stubborn old man. Now history may judge him gently for his personal sacrifice.

The big question of course is, what happens now?

Mr Biden has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. I’ve talked with those in the Democratic Party who in the past were not always fans of Ms Harris. Critics say she doesn’t shine in office. I’d simply point out that it is very difficult for a Vice President to shine at all.

An apt quote comes from John Nance Garner – Franklin Roosevelt’s vice president from 1933-41. Garner described the vice presidency as “not worth a bucket of warm spit”, or at least that’s the polite reworking of his rude vocabulary.

The first hurdle for Kamala Harris is to secure her party’s nomination. It may take a fight. Reuters
The first hurdle for Kamala Harris is to secure her party’s nomination. It may take a fight. Reuters
Biden’s successor – whoever it is – will be someone at least a generation younger than Trump. That alone will shake up this dreary yet hugely significant race

We will soon learn a great deal about Ms Harris, but what we do know already is that she is an experienced courtroom lawyer, an African American and a woman – three attributes that Mr Trump has reason to be concerned about.

Imagine Mr Trump has to engage in a televised debate with Ms Harris. I will stay up late at night to see it. It could be a game changer.

After all, Mr Trump’s contact with lawyers has not gone smoothly. His contact with women, well, I will merely repeat that it has not gone smoothly. And while he has some African-American supporters, his statements on race have not always gone smoothly either. He is a convicted felon often accused of misogyny and racism.

The first hurdle for Ms Harris is to secure her party’s nomination. It may take a fight, although even televised contests with other Democrats will stir up voters, grab headlines and engage TV viewers. Then, whoever wins, the next task is to devise a strategy to defeat Mr Trump who is ahead in the polls.

Mr Trump himself is a hero to Republicans as an assassination survivor. But he is also his own worst enemy. He is funded by enormous sums of money from hugely wealthy donors, including Elon Musk – reportedly $45 million a month. Describing Mr Trump as being in the pocket of multi-billionaires and the enemy of ordinary Americans is a useful attack line.

Two other key areas have to be addressed.

Will Ms Harris be opposed within the Democratic Party, or will her candidacy be greeted with acclamation? The party has many competent and ambitious politicians. But Mr Biden’s message of sacrificing personal ambition may play well within the party’s ranks, meaning other candidates step aside and gather round Ms Harris even before the party’s convention beginning August 19.

Donald Trump’s extensive 90-minute speech to the Republican National Convention was simply weird. Reuters
Donald Trump’s extensive 90-minute speech to the Republican National Convention was simply weird. Reuters

Second, what will happen to the about $250 million reportedly in Democratic campaign funds? Some advisers believe a Harris ticket will make moving the money to her the easiest course, especially since large amounts of it went to the Biden-Harris campaign, and her name is obviously already on that ticket. Insiders suggest the money will, in fact, not be much of an issue.

Third, if it is Ms Harris – or even if it isn’t – how will the Democrats balance the ticket with a vice-presidential running mate? With Ms Harris, we can guess her running mate will be a white male, probably from a swing state – perhaps Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania.

Finally, what impact will Ms Harris – or indeed any other candidate for the Democrats – have with a late entry to the race?

Well, Mr Trump’s extensive 90-minute speech to his own convention was simply weird. He even talked of the “late, great Hannibal Lecter”, a cannibalistic fictional criminal. It presumably was a joke, but it’s not exactly hilarious. Imagine interviewing anyone for any job in your business or organisation who spoke that way. Would you employ them? Me neither.

Moreover, Mr Biden’s successor – whoever it is – will be someone at least a generation younger than Mr Trump. That alone will shake up this dreary yet hugely significant race.

The Democratic nominee will have one further great advantage: he or she is not Mr Trump, and not 81-year-old Mr Biden either. As Oscar Wilde once observed, “The youth of America is their oldest tradition.”

It’s going to be a rollercoaster ride until November.

The specs

Engine: 1.4-litre 4-cylinder turbo

Power: 180hp at 5,500rpm

Torque: 250Nm at 3,00rpm

Transmission: 5-speed sequential auto

Price: From Dh139,995

On sale: now

The specs

Engine: 3.5-litre twin-turbo V6

Power: 380hp at 5,800rpm

Torque: 530Nm at 1,300-4,500rpm

Transmission: Eight-speed auto

Price: From Dh299,000 ($81,415)

On sale: Now

If you go

Flying

Despite the extreme distance, flying to Fairbanks is relatively simple, requiring just one transfer in Seattle, which can be reached directly from Dubai with Emirates for Dh6,800 return.

 

Touring

Gondwana Ecotours’ seven-day Polar Bear Adventure starts in Fairbanks in central Alaska before visiting Kaktovik and Utqiarvik on the North Slope. Polar bear viewing is highly likely in Kaktovik, with up to five two-hour boat tours included. Prices start from Dh11,500 per person, with all local flights, meals and accommodation included; gondwanaecotours.com 

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Retirement funds heavily invested in equities at a risky time

Pension funds in growing economies in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East have a sharply higher percentage of assets parked in stocks, just at a time when trade tensions threaten to derail markets.

Retirement money managers in 14 geographies now allocate 40 per cent of their assets to equities, an 8 percentage-point climb over the past five years, according to a Mercer survey released last week that canvassed government, corporate and mandatory pension funds with almost $5 trillion in assets under management. That compares with about 25 per cent for pension funds in Europe.

The escalating trade spat between the US and China has heightened fears that stocks are ripe for a downturn. With tensions mounting and outcomes driven more by politics than economics, the S&P 500 Index will be on course for a “full-scale bear market” without Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, Citigroup’s global macro strategy team said earlier this week.

The increased allocation to equities by growth-market pension funds has come at the expense of fixed-income investments, which declined 11 percentage points over the five years, according to the survey.

Hong Kong funds have the highest exposure to equities at 66 per cent, although that’s been relatively stable over the period. Japan’s equity allocation jumped 13 percentage points while South Korea’s increased 8 percentage points.

The money managers are also directing a higher portion of their funds to assets outside of their home countries. On average, foreign stocks now account for 49 per cent of respondents’ equity investments, 4 percentage points higher than five years ago, while foreign fixed-income exposure climbed 7 percentage points to 23 per cent. Funds in Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan are among those seeking greater diversification in stocks and fixed income.

• Bloomberg

Women’s World T20, Asia Qualifier

UAE results
Beat China by 16 runs
Lost to Thailand by 10 wickets
Beat Nepal by five runs
Beat Hong Kong by eight wickets
Beat Malaysia by 34 runs

Standings (P, W, l, NR, points)

1. Thailand 5 4 0 1 9
2. UAE 5 4 1 0 8
3. Nepal 5 2 1 2 6
4. Hong Kong 5 2 2 1 5
5. Malaysia 5 1 4 0 2
6. China 5 0 5 0 0

Final
Thailand v UAE, Monday, 7am

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Infobox

Western Region Asia Cup Qualifier, Al Amerat, Oman

The two finalists advance to the next stage of qualifying, in Malaysia in August

Results

UAE beat Iran by 10 wickets

Kuwait beat Saudi Arabia by eight wickets

Oman beat Bahrain by nine wickets

Qatar beat Maldives by 106 runs

Monday fixtures

UAE v Kuwait, Iran v Saudi Arabia, Oman v Qatar, Maldives v Bahrain

JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH

Directed by: Shaka King

Starring: Daniel Kaluuya, Lakeith Stanfield, Jesse Plemons

Four stars

Remaining Fixtures

Wednesday: West Indies v Scotland
Thursday: UAE v Zimbabwe
Friday: Afghanistan v Ireland
Sunday: Final

if you go

The flights

Air Astana flies direct from Dubai to Almaty from Dh2,440 per person return, and to Astana (via Almaty) from Dh2,930 return, both including taxes. 

The hotels

Rooms at the Ritz-Carlton Almaty cost from Dh1,944 per night including taxes; and in Astana the new Ritz-Carlton Astana (www.marriott) costs from Dh1,325; alternatively, the new St Regis Astana costs from Dh1,458 per night including taxes. 

When to visit

March-May and September-November

Visas

Citizens of many countries, including the UAE do not need a visa to enter Kazakhstan for up to 30 days. Contact the nearest Kazakhstan embassy or consulate.

The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting 

2. Prayer 

3. Hajj 

4. Shahada 

5. Zakat 

Updated: July 31, 2024, 5:46 PM