The Israel-Gaza war is quickly becoming a US electoral issue


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February 04, 2024

The US’s focus on securing a humanitarian pause in Gaza carries implications for America’s domestic political front, particularly for President Joe Biden’s re-election bid this year.

The state of Michigan could play a pivotal role, underscoring the significance of the Arab vote, despite its modest size. On a strategic level, the Biden administration’s investment in transitional arrangements is accompanied by diligent efforts towards fostering a US-Iran detente and US-Arab co-ordination. The administration hopes these efforts will culminate in a grand settlement in the Middle East.

Former president Donald Trump, who will almost certainly be Mr Biden’s opponent in the November election, is banking on the incumbent’s struggle to retain the Arab vote in Michigan in the hope that this would open a pathway for his return to the White House. Mr Trump also expects Mr Biden to fail to secure a grand bargain, because its core foundation involves appeasing Iran, as opposed to imposing a deal on American terms (which Mr Trump believes is the best way to resolve conflicts).

The coming weeks hold critical importance for both candidates. Securing a ceasefire in Gaza will become a key issue for both campaigns, alongside the dynamics of the US-Iran relationship and the Israel-Hezbollah equation.

It may appear simplistic to argue that Michigan could be a key gateway to the White House and that the Arab vote within the state holds this key. But this is becoming increasingly plausible, with Mr Biden having appeared to have lost at least some of the support of the traditionally Democratic-leaning Arab and Muslim base in the state, owing mostly to his stance on the Israel-Gaza war.

The “Abandon Biden” campaign is uninterested in the administration’s strikes on Houthi targets, aimed at safeguarding international navigation, or its response against the Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria in retaliation to the targeting of American soldiers last week. The campaign’s primary concern lies in Mr Biden’s support to Israel, including the provision of weaponry that has played a role in the killing of more than 27,000 Palestinians, and his rejection of calls for a permanent ceasefire.

US President Joe Biden is welcomed by Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv last October. Reuters
US President Joe Biden is welcomed by Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv last October. Reuters
Biden finds himself in what could be termed the 'Obama moment'

The Michigan Arab community’s dissatisfaction with Mr Biden has emerged at a time when he needs their support, which was pivotal in securing his 2020 victory. This will be music to Mr Trump’s ears.

The former president’s political messaging centres on his supposed ability to find solutions through the application of coercive tools. According to his campaign team, he is a man of peace, while Mr Biden has demonstrated a proclivity for war during his tenure.

The man who co-authored the book The Art of the Dealdoesn’t conceal his readiness for reaching difficult agreements.

Mr Trump suggests he has a roadmap for resolving the conflict in Ukraine, which could anger his opponents at home and Nato allies abroad, as it would be seen as the alliance abandoning Ukraine against Russia. But Mr Trump’s pragmatism puts him in a position to propose a deal to Moscow that would include halting the war in exchange for a re-evaluation of Nato’s supposed commitment to bring Kyiv into the alliance. In the eyes of the Trump team, this doesn’t amount to abandonment but a pragmatic solution to end the war.

The Biden campaign is likely to highlight the incumbent’s success in containing wars, preventing their escalation and steering the US clear of their pitfalls. The Gaza war serves as a live example, where the Biden administration has so far deterred Iran on the one hand and restrained Hezbollah in Lebanon on the other, thereby averting a regional war. Additionally, it has resisted Israel’s eagerness to embroil Washington in a direct conflict with Iran.

But the Biden administration’s problem is its perceived weakness and inability to deter direct attacks on American bases and interests, as well as to halt the ongoing bloodshed in Gaza, beyond seeking temporary humanitarian ceasefires. To date, the administration has been unsuccessful in securing a major deal and the lasting settlement that it is pursuing.

Mr Biden finds himself in what could be termed the “Obama moment” – when former president Barack Obama opted at the 11th hour to not strike Syria despite having declared a red line to halt Damascus’s prohibited chemical weapons programme in 2012.

Having been Mr Obama’s vice president at the time, Mr Biden is keen to avoid escalatory rhetoric. But the resemblance between the two men’s leadership styles lies in their inability to take decisive action. Indeed, there is an impression that Mr Biden failed to respond swiftly enough after suffering blows from Iran-affiliated groups and to reaffirm that the US does not tolerate targeting its soldiers and bases – including on the Tower 22 military base near the Jordan-Syria border. Instead, Mr Biden seems to have accepted Tehran’s claims that it isn’t involved in the operations conducted by its proxies.

Members of an Iraqi Shiite militant group attend a funeral for the group members who were killed by a US air strike, in Baghdad on Sunday. AP
Members of an Iraqi Shiite militant group attend a funeral for the group members who were killed by a US air strike, in Baghdad on Sunday. AP

The Biden administration’s response to the Tower 22 attack is likely to rely on conducting strikes on targets affiliated with Iran inside Iraq and Syria over the next several days. But this might be designed to avoid direct confrontation with Tehran, which Washington does not desire. However, it is not a resolute strategy and does not convey the message that this is a great power that does not tolerate transgressions by Iran or its proxies.

The Iranian regime does not seek war with the US or Israel. It is buying time to complete its nuclear weapons programme and avoid further domestic economic pressures. It may, therefore, seek to co-operate with the Biden administration to find solutions and even facilitate a major deal.

There is little doubt, then, that the fear of war is fundamental to both powers’ current policies.

The country that stands to benefit from this awkward situation is Lebanon, where Hezbollah is a valuable asset for Iran and the key to a major settlement if ceasefire efforts in Gaza prove successful.

Local reports suggest Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian has informed relevant parties that Tehran is seeking a diplomatic solution to the Lebanon-Israel border disputes, and that it does not object to American mediation to delineate the land boundaries.

I am given to understand that US special envoy Amos Hochstein could unveil a deal between the two countries immediately after the impending Gaza ceasefire. The plan aims to implement UN Resolution 1701 and prepare the Lebanese army for deployment in the south.

Simultaneously, negotiations could be launched between Lebanon and Israel through the UN regarding the removal of disputes along the Blue Line separating Lebanon and Israel, and diplomatic solutions could be explored to settle the Shebaa Farms and Kafr Shuba disputes, which would necessarily involve Syria given that these territories claimed by Lebanon fall within the zone supervised by the UN Disengagement Observer Force maintaining the ceasefire between Syria and Israel since their 1973 war.

All of this, of course, requires Iran’s consent and approval.

Currently, however, all eyes are on the humanitarian tragedy that continues to unfold in Gaza – as well as any action the Biden administration will take in its dealings with Iranian entanglements and challenges.

ESSENTIALS

The flights 
Emirates, Etihad and Swiss fly direct from the UAE to Zurich from Dh2,855 return, including taxes.
 

The chalet
Chalet N is currently open in winter only, between now and April 21. During the ski season, starting on December 11, a week’s rental costs from €210,000 (Dh898,431) per week for the whole property, which has 22 beds in total, across six suites, three double rooms and a children’s suite. The price includes all scheduled meals, a week’s ski pass, Wi-Fi, parking, transfers between Munich, Innsbruck or Zurich airports and one 50-minute massage per person. Private ski lessons cost from €360 (Dh1,541) per day. Halal food is available on request.

What can victims do?

Always use only regulated platforms

Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion

Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)

Report to local authorities

Warn others to prevent further harm

Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence

Who's who in Yemen conflict

Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government

Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council

Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south

Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory

A MINECRAFT MOVIE

Director: Jared Hess

Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa

Rating: 3/5

Where to buy

Limited-edition art prints of The Sofa Series: Sultani can be acquired from Reem El Mutwalli at www.reemelmutwalli.com

WOMAN AND CHILD

Director: Saeed Roustaee

Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi

Rating: 4/5

Five healthy carbs and how to eat them

Brown rice: consume an amount that fits in the palm of your hand

Non-starchy vegetables, such as broccoli: consume raw or at low temperatures, and don’t reheat  

Oatmeal: look out for pure whole oat grains or kernels, which are locally grown and packaged; avoid those that have travelled from afar

Fruit: a medium bowl a day and no more, and never fruit juices

Lentils and lentil pasta: soak these well and cook them at a low temperature; refrain from eating highly processed pasta variants

Courtesy Roma Megchiani, functional nutritionist at Dubai’s 77 Veggie Boutique

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The specs

Engine: 1.5-litre turbo

Power: 181hp

Torque: 230Nm

Transmission: 6-speed automatic

Starting price: Dh79,000

On sale: Now

About Karol Nawrocki

• Supports military aid for Ukraine, unlike other eurosceptic leaders, but he will oppose its membership in western alliances.

• A nationalist, his campaign slogan was Poland First. "Let's help others, but let's take care of our own citizens first," he said on social media in April.

• Cultivates tough-guy image, posting videos of himself at shooting ranges and in boxing rings.

• Met Donald Trump at the White House and received his backing.

THE CLOWN OF GAZA

Director: Abdulrahman Sabbah 

Starring: Alaa Meqdad

Rating: 4/5

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World Cup League Two

Results

Oman beat Nepal by 18 runs

Oman beat United States by six wickets

Nepal beat United States by 35 runs

Oman beat Nepal by eight wickets

 

Fixtures

Tuesday, Oman v United States

Wednesday, Nepal v United States

 

Marathon results

Men:

 1. Titus Ekiru(KEN) 2:06:13 

2. Alphonce Simbu(TAN) 2:07:50 

3. Reuben Kipyego(KEN) 2:08:25 

4. Abel Kirui(KEN) 2:08:46 

5. Felix Kemutai(KEN) 2:10:48  

Women:

1. Judith Korir(KEN) 2:22:30 

2. Eunice Chumba(BHR) 2:26:01 

3. Immaculate Chemutai(UGA) 2:28:30 

4. Abebech Bekele(ETH) 2:29:43 

5. Aleksandra Morozova(RUS) 2:33:01  

Brief scores:

Toss: Northern Warriors, elected to field first

Bengal Tigers 130-1 (10 ov)

Roy 60 not out, Rutherford 47 not out

Northern Warriors 94-7 (10 ov)

Simmons 44; Yamin 4-4

Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?

The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.

A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.

Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.

The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.

When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.

RESULT

Manchester United 2 Tottenham Hotspur 1
Man United: Sanchez (24' ), Herrera (62')
Spurs: Alli (11')

Kandahar%20
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UAE squad

Esha Oza (captain), Al Maseera Jahangir, Emily Thomas, Heena Hotchandani, Indhuja Nandakumar, Katie Thompson, Lavanya Keny, Mehak Thakur, Michelle Botha, Rinitha Rajith, Samaira Dharnidharka, Siya Gokhale, Sashikala Silva, Suraksha Kotte, Theertha Satish (wicketkeeper) Udeni Kuruppuarachchige, Vaishnave Mahesh.

UAE tour of Zimbabwe

All matches in Bulawayo
Friday, Sept 26 – First ODI
Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI
Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI
Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI
Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I
Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I

Who was Alfred Nobel?

The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.

  • In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
  • Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
  • Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
Other must-tries

Tomato and walnut salad

A lesson in simple, seasonal eating. Wedges of tomato, chunks of cucumber, thinly sliced red onion, coriander or parsley leaves, and perhaps some fresh dill are drizzled with a crushed walnut and garlic dressing. Do consider yourself warned: if you eat this salad in Georgia during the summer months, the tomatoes will be so ripe and flavourful that every tomato you eat from that day forth will taste lacklustre in comparison.

Badrijani nigvzit

A delicious vegetarian snack or starter. It consists of thinly sliced, fried then cooled aubergine smothered with a thick and creamy walnut sauce and folded or rolled. Take note, even though it seems like you should be able to pick these morsels up with your hands, they’re not as durable as they look. A knife and fork is the way to go.

Pkhali

This healthy little dish (a nice antidote to the khachapuri) is usually made with steamed then chopped cabbage, spinach, beetroot or green beans, combined with walnuts, garlic and herbs to make a vegetable pâté or paste. The mix is then often formed into rounds, chilled in the fridge and topped with pomegranate seeds before being served.

The specs: 2018 BMW X2 and X3

Price, as tested: Dh255,150 (X2); Dh383,250 (X3)

Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged inline four-cylinder (X2); 3.0-litre twin-turbo inline six-cylinder (X3)

Power 192hp @ 5,000rpm (X2); 355hp @ 5,500rpm (X3)

Torque: 280Nm @ 1,350rpm (X2); 500Nm @ 1,520rpm (X3)

Transmission: Seven-speed automatic (X2); Eight-speed automatic (X3)

Fuel consumption, combined: 5.7L / 100km (X2); 8.3L / 100km (X3)

Crazy Rich Asians

Director: Jon M Chu

Starring: Constance Wu, Henry Golding, Michelle Yeon, Gemma Chan

Four stars

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Updated: February 04, 2024, 2:00 PM